Author Topic: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar  (Read 2322 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online EEVblog

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 24775
  • Country: au
    • EEVblog
EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« on: September 20, 2017, 11:41:15 PM »
A response to Minute Physics's latest video promoting the Rayton Solar equity crowd funding campaign.
Dave looks at Rayton Solar and it's investment risk and practical viability and asks the question, should Minute Physics have promoted this? And they roped in Bill Nye too!
Let me know what you think, did Minute Physics cross a line in doing a paid promotion of a risky commercial equity crowd funding campaign?

Analysis on the equity crowd funding campaign:
https://rationalexuberancesite.wordpress.com/2017/05/14/rayton-solar-a-story-about-bill-nye-particle-accelerators-and-greed/
They spent $330K on marketing in the 6 months! and only $72k on R&D.



The original Minute Physics Rayton Solar video:
« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 12:47:06 AM by EEVblog »
 

Online ataradov

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3705
  • Country: us
  • I informed you thusly
    • Personal site
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2017, 02:18:57 AM »
Bill Nye sold out long time ago. His credibility is basically 0 in my eyes. It is actually negative, since I'm cautious and looking for a catch any time he promotes something.

I'm not too happy about the way it was disclosed in Minute Physics video either. I'd much rather see a disclosure at the beginning of a video, so I don't have to watch the whole ad, or at least have the right attitude watching it.
Alex
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13021
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2017, 06:56:20 AM »
Different question: how to disable bass-boost on Youtube videos? I noticed Youtube adds an enormous amount of bass-boost to the videos making them annoying to listen to.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline smashIt

  • Contributor
  • Posts: 29
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2017, 07:43:43 AM »
put a mirror behind the wafer and use both sides of the solar cell...
 

Online EEVblog

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 24775
  • Country: au
    • EEVblog
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2017, 09:19:02 AM »
So much for 24% efficiency

 
The following users thanked this post: thm_w

Offline wilfred

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4586
  • Country: au
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2017, 09:19:35 AM »
I'd have preferred the investment notice and sponsorship arrangement to have been, however briefly, made at the start. However this was a relatively low key presentation and I don't object to anyone taking the money provided they aren't a bit shifty in doing so. This wasn't problematic for me.

Breakthrough technology investment is inherently risky so I don't see that as a valid argument against seeking funds. The expected rewards should be greater to compensate for the risk. Hopefully a prospectus is available that outlines the plan and documents the associated risks so that an investor can be making an informed decision. More than that and you get a nanny state mentality trying to protect people from themselves.
 

Offline wilfred

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4586
  • Country: au
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2017, 09:25:23 AM »
So much for 24% efficiency

That part of his experience developing the 18% efficient cell process might not be the same as the "new" process of making thin cells with 24% efficiency. It is not clear to me they directly overlap based on the experience list.
 

Online EEVblog

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 24775
  • Country: au
    • EEVblog
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2017, 09:43:11 AM »
Breakthrough technology investment is inherently risky so I don't see that as a valid argument against seeking funds. The expected rewards should be greater to compensate for the risk. Hopefully a prospectus is available that outlines the plan and documents the associated risks so that an investor can be making an informed decision. More than that and you get a nanny state mentality trying to protect people from themselves.

Every potential investor needs to read this:
https://rationalexuberancesite.wordpress.com/2017/05/14/rayton-solar-a-story-about-bill-nye-particle-accelerators-and-greed/
 

Offline bitwelder

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 601
  • Country: fi
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2017, 02:50:52 PM »
Not only while Dave prepared this video the raised fund grew by 1M$ (7272797.20 -> 8275600.48), but the investor number grew only by 7 units (4128 -> 4135).
BTW is the published number for the funding calculated after fees and such, or is there some investor that put hundreds of thousands of dollars... and a few cents?
 

Offline Kleinstein

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3527
  • Country: de
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2017, 01:25:04 AM »
Of those 7 investors there is at least one with a deep pocket. The odd cents could come from a second smaller investor or from interments in other currency.

The up to 24 % Efficiency claim is odd. Conventional SI cells can reach about that level in lab samples - so it is credible this might be possible in the future. Normally for crystalline Si one needs a certain thickness to absorb enough of the IR light - so something around 100 µm is considered about the needed thickness due to the not so good absorption of IR light. With only 3 µm of silicon, I would not expect it to be a challenge to reach 15 %. It might work with light trapping if the modules are sun following (or under the nominal test conditions), but no way if the light comes under a different angle.

To me is really smells like American scientists discovered .... type claims: we don't know, but we think not many can prove we are wrong.
 

Offline Tek_TDS220

  • Regular Contributor
  • *
  • Posts: 59
  • Country: 00
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2017, 05:46:17 AM »
Careful regarding the 60% savings, Dave.  There are a lot of ways to measure 'manufacturing cost'.  The table you showed included depreciation, but this is not always included (even though it should be).  Plus they might be talking about a bare panel, not a module. 

I agree it sounds completely bogus - I'd like to see their calculations.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2017, 06:29:25 AM by Tek_TDS220 »
 

Online NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3413
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2017, 01:35:05 PM »
My view for products that claim to be cheaper for a given spec are quite simple: I believe them when I can buy them for the price they claim and they deliver what they claim to deliver.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.
 

Offline wilfred

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4586
  • Country: au
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2017, 03:50:57 PM »
My view for products that claim to be cheaper for a given spec are quite simple: I believe them when I can buy them for the price they claim and they deliver what they claim to deliver.
The world still needs those who will take risks and hard work to get to that point.
 

Online EEVblog

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 24775
  • Country: au
    • EEVblog
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2017, 09:32:17 AM »
And it looks like another big Youtube channel is going to do a promo video

 

Online ataradov

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3705
  • Country: us
  • I informed you thusly
    • Personal site
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2017, 09:37:26 AM »
Oh, well. I only watch 1/10 of TIFO videos, so this one would be easy to skip.

It is also strange to me that they can't raise the money using a conventional "scam your closest venture investor" scheme. They are not asking a lot, stupid juice press managed to get 10x more. This must be such an obvious fail to professional investors, that they are not biting.
Alex
 

Online EEVblog

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 24775
  • Country: au
    • EEVblog
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2017, 09:56:25 AM »
It is also strange to me that they can't raise the money using a conventional "scam your closest venture investor" scheme. They are not asking a lot, stupid juice press managed to get 10x more. This must be such an obvious fail to professional investors, that they are not biting.

Maybe they just suck at pitch decks?

What they do seem good at is wooing prominent personalities to do promos. Not hard when you throw money at them I guess, and the tech is pretty cool sounding.
 

Online EEVblog

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 24775
  • Country: au
    • EEVblog
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2017, 10:35:04 AM »
Not only while Dave prepared this video the raised fund grew by 1M$ (7272797.20 -> 8275600.48), but the investor number grew only by 7 units (4128 -> 4135).
BTW is the published number for the funding calculated after fees and such, or is there some investor that put hundreds of thousands of dollars... and a few cents?

Now up to $9,550,988 but investors have dropped to 3,952  :-//
 

Offline filssavi

  • Regular Contributor
  • *
  • Posts: 135
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2017, 11:28:00 AM »
No one ever addressed the elephant in the room...
This process will be horribly slow, I mean for every cell you have to first expose the wafer in a ion implantation setup, then you have to move it to an oven, bake and repeat

You might be able to build the oven ina custom implantation machine (and this will cost you much much more than 50M$) but it is still a horrendously complex system and I'm not so sure the silicon saving is enough to ofsett the costs

PS the video shows implanted ion just magically appearing where they need to but that is a lie, they are shot there, so the crystalline structure of the silicon they pass through is highly damaged requiring a careful high temperature annealing to get it usable again
 

Online Cerebus

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1916
  • Country: gb
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2017, 12:22:57 PM »
This must be such an obvious fail to professional investors, that they are not biting.

Or they simply don't want to work with the usual venture capital types. There is a reason that people who have actual experience of working with venture capitalists call them vulture capitalists.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 

Offline Brumby

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 5689
  • Country: au
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2017, 01:29:19 PM »
Not only while Dave prepared this video the raised fund grew by 1M$ (7272797.20 -> 8275600.48), but the investor number grew only by 7 units (4128 -> 4135).
BTW is the published number for the funding calculated after fees and such, or is there some investor that put hundreds of thousands of dollars... and a few cents?

Now up to $9,550,988 but investors have dropped to 3,952  :-//

There's only one answer .... that "shares" (even though they don't exist yet) are being bought out!!!

... or maybe there's some "creative accounting" going on

..... or the numbers are a fudge.
 

Offline Fungus

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7007
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2017, 10:21:49 PM »
Is there any advantage to cutting the silicon exactly along a molecular shear line (which this process seems to do)? I assume an ordinary saw can't do that.

Could you gain a couple of percentage points in efficiency by doing that?

 

Offline SeanB

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14391
  • Country: za
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2017, 10:31:35 PM »
Not really, they just are making thinner cells, and saving on the cost of the most common element on earth aside from aluminium. The wafers are already sliced on a near atomic layer thickness, so this only makes them thinner in final production, at the expense of making them a little more fragile than before.
 

Offline Fungus

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7007
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2017, 10:46:56 PM »
Not really, they just are making thinner cells, and saving on the cost of the most common element on earth aside from aluminium.
The raw element may be abundant but growing perfect crystals using it isn't cheap.

(and neither is extracting aluminium)
 

Offline SeanB

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14391
  • Country: za
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2017, 01:42:09 AM »
True, but most of the cost of the material is energy, not the lack of material. IIRC the silicon is not the major cost of a panel, but a fair amount non the less, and the way they are doing it is a little more expensive than simply making more silicon, and recycling the powder from the cutting the raw silicon somewhere in the process to repurify it and use it to grow more crystals is probably already done. Not exactly cheap to build and maintain a large proton beam generator, and likely to require a lot more power in use than the silicon foundry.
 

Offline IanMacdonald

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 390
  • Country: gb
    • IWR Consultancy
Re: EEVblog #1025 - Minute Physics + Bill Nye Promoting Rayton Solar
« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2017, 02:43:21 AM »
Silicon is basically a component of sand (silicon dioxide) and a very cheap material. The cost is in making it pure enough for electronics use, then drawing it into a monocrystalline ingot.  So, wastage of material is not in itself significant, but the more wafers you can get out of an ingot the better you utilise the energy and time expended on making the ingot. 

If the slicing process uses more energy and takes more time than to make the ingot, then it is a negative gain, though. In that case you would be better just to make more ingots and accept the wastage of sawing them up.

Thus, it differs from a situation where you are using an inherently costly material such as gold, where material wastage is the key issue. Here it isn't. 
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf