Author Topic: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...  (Read 4655 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #125 on: March 27, 2018, 06:56:54 am »
Number of accidents per driven miles/km, Uber is on very low counts according to Don MacKenzie at

http://faculty.washington.edu/dwhm/2018/03/19/are-ubers-autonomous-vehicles-safe/
Without dividing accident statistics per road type the numbers in that article say nothing. In the NL the chance of an accident on a highway is 20 times less compared to driving in a city. So if the majority of the distance driven by autonomous Uber cars is in a city (which given the purpose of Uber is likely) and a significant part of the distance driven by other cars is on highways then the numbers in the article are way off.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline orion242

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #126 on: March 27, 2018, 06:58:16 am »
I don't really see how you can draw any comparisons in the crash / mile driven rate between humans and AVs.

Are AVs driving in snow?  How about in pouring rain with high wind?  Dirt roads without lane markers?  AVs are only driving in ideal locations, under ideal weather, aka perfect conditions.  This isn't the case for human drivers that still need to get to work when its snowing.

These comparisons are rubbish.
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #127 on: March 27, 2018, 09:08:50 am »
While a pedestrian killed is a very big thing...  The thing that scares me as much or more about AV is it's lack of common sense.  Even with machine learning, it will be hard for it to reach the level of a normal 17 year-old.

I know what to expect out of a human driver.  What would an AV do if:
- A very pregnant lady got in the car, frantic and can only scream "the water just broke."
- I (the passenger) open the window and start shooting
- I am molesting a girl in the back as the car goes
- The girl sitting next to me is blind-folded and hands tied
- Something got into the car on Halloween, that something looks even puzzling to a human
- Toilet paper all over the road way (on Halloween or in some areas, typical college graduation season)
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass as if he is about to jump
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass with a frozen turkey (a driver was killed by a kid's practical joke in my State some years back - the turkey more then went through the windshield.  Twelve years ago (approx), a lady in NYC/Long Island was nearly killed by the same prank.)

Common sense allows us to deal with uncommon situations in a reasonably way.  An average 17-year-old would probably have enough common sense to handle any of those situation and the many many others scenario we have yet to imagine.  An AV?  No one knows but the programmer.  For machine-learning type of AV, even the programmer doesn't know.

I think, proper operation of a deadly device requires a bit more than just knowing when to turn and when to brake.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #128 on: March 27, 2018, 09:22:26 am »
While a pedestrian killed is a very big thing...  The thing that scares me as much or more about AV is it's lack of common sense.  Even with machine learning, it will be hard for it to reach the level of a normal 17 year-old.

I know what to expect out of a human driver.  What would an AV do if:
- A very pregnant lady got in the car, frantic and can only scream "the water just broke."
- I (the passenger) open the window and start shooting
- I am molesting a girl in the back as the car goes
- The girl sitting next to me is blind-folded and hands tied
- Something got into the car on Halloween, that something looks even puzzling to a human
- Toilet paper all over the road way (on Halloween or in some areas, typical college graduation season)
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass as if he is about to jump
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass with a frozen turkey (a driver was killed by a kid's practical joke in my State some years back - the turkey more then went through the windshield.  Twelve years ago (approx), a lady in NYC/Long Island was nearly killed by the same prank.)
Why would an AV have to deal with that? Can your phone do anything useful by itself in those situations?
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #129 on: March 27, 2018, 11:26:46 am »
While a pedestrian killed is a very big thing...  The thing that scares me as much or more about AV is it's lack of common sense.  Even with machine learning, it will be hard for it to reach the level of a normal 17 year-old.

I know what to expect out of a human driver.  What would an AV do if:
- A very pregnant lady got in the car, frantic and can only scream "the water just broke."
- I (the passenger) open the window and start shooting
- I am molesting a girl in the back as the car goes
- The girl sitting next to me is blind-folded and hands tied
- Something got into the car on Halloween, that something looks even puzzling to a human
- Toilet paper all over the road way (on Halloween or in some areas, typical college graduation season)
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass as if he is about to jump
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass with a frozen turkey (a driver was killed by a kid's practical joke in my State some years back - the turkey more then went through the windshield.  Twelve years ago (approx), a lady in NYC/Long Island was nearly killed by the same prank.)
Why would an AV have to deal with that? Can your phone do anything useful by itself in those situations?

You really think a guy would have time to make a phone call while he is in a car molesting someone?  A human driver would know to do something.  An AV car, may be not.

That reply you quoted was not intended to say that we rely on the car to do law enforcement.  It was intended as an illustrate how simple expectations we have from common sense go out the window when we are deal with a machine without common sense.
 

Offline bd139

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #130 on: March 28, 2018, 04:42:16 am »
The three times I've woken up in a bus garage before suggests that a human operator doesn't necessarily possess the skills for inferring what is going on very well...

This dude has far more clue:

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #131 on: March 28, 2018, 05:13:22 am »
While a pedestrian killed is a very big thing...  The thing that scares me as much or more about AV is it's lack of common sense.  Even with machine learning, it will be hard for it to reach the level of a normal 17 year-old.

I know what to expect out of a human driver.  What would an AV do if:
- A very pregnant lady got in the car, frantic and can only scream "the water just broke."
- I (the passenger) open the window and start shooting
- I am molesting a girl in the back as the car goes
- The girl sitting next to me is blind-folded and hands tied
- Something got into the car on Halloween, that something looks even puzzling to a human
- Toilet paper all over the road way (on Halloween or in some areas, typical college graduation season)
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass as if he is about to jump
- Someone standing at the edge of the over-pass with a frozen turkey (a driver was killed by a kid's practical joke in my State some years back - the turkey more then went through the windshield.  Twelve years ago (approx), a lady in NYC/Long Island was nearly killed by the same prank.)
Why would an AV have to deal with that? Can your phone do anything useful by itself in those situations?

You really think a guy would have time to make a phone call while he is in a car molesting someone?  A human driver would know to do something.  An AV car, may be not.

That reply you quoted was not intended to say that we rely on the car to do law enforcement.  It was intended as an illustrate how simple expectations we have from common sense go out the window when we are deal with a machine without common sense.
There is no reason why an AV should be any smarter than a hammer. After all an AV is a tool. A sophisticated tool but a tool nevertheless. An AV should stick to the traffic rules and (if possible) don't hit anything. Still want common sense? Put a monitoring device inside an AV so a (human) call center operator can deal with 'situations'.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #132 on: March 28, 2018, 06:22:39 am »
...
...
There is no reason why an AV should be any smarter than a hammer. After all an AV is a tool. A sophisticated tool but a tool nevertheless. An AV should stick to the traffic rules and (if possible) don't hit anything. Still want common sense? Put a monitoring device inside an AV so a (human) call center operator can deal with 'situations'.

We are actually on the same page.  My argument is not whether AV should have that capability or not.  Instead, I was arguing about our expectations.

You know to not to expect (in your words) AV smarter than a hammer, where as, many others expect AV to be rather smart, perhaps even smarter than human.

My point is, we should expect it to be a rather dumb tool lacking common sense.  That deficit in turn makes it to be lacking the real intelligence of a real driver.  It will therefore will make mistakes that human with our common sense could easily avoid.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #133 on: March 28, 2018, 09:05:10 am »
...
...
There is no reason why an AV should be any smarter than a hammer. After all an AV is a tool. A sophisticated tool but a tool nevertheless. An AV should stick to the traffic rules and (if possible) don't hit anything. Still want common sense? Put a monitoring device inside an AV so a (human) call center operator can deal with 'situations'.

We are actually on the same page.  My argument is not whether AV should have that capability or not.  Instead, I was arguing about our expectations.

You know to not to expect (in your words) AV smarter than a hammer, where as, many others expect AV to be rather smart, perhaps even smarter than human.

My point is, we should expect it to be a rather dumb tool lacking common sense.  That deficit in turn makes it to be lacking the real intelligence of a real driver.  It will therefore will make mistakes that human with our common sense could easily avoid.
We are not on the same page. Common sense is different between people. Also many people don't react at all in a panic situation. I used to work at a research institute for human behaviour and it is mind boggling how many people lock up or do the wrong thing in life threatening situations. An AV OTOH will always do as it is programmed. It cannot get distracted or do stupid things like humans do and that is a big win. You are putting way too much confidence in the ability of human drivers. It doesn't take a sophisticated AV to drive better than the average human driver.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #134 on: March 28, 2018, 12:43:54 pm »
...
We are not on the same page. Common sense is different between people.
...

I thought we both felt AV is not as smart as some expect...  Our reasons may differ, but we are both thinking that.  Are we not?
 

Offline raptor1956

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #135 on: March 28, 2018, 01:35:11 pm »
Apparently, when Uber switched from the Ford Fusion test cars to Volvo they also scaled back the number of lidar sensor from 7 to 1.  The lidar units scan 360 degrees, but the vertical angle is small so there are blind spots.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-selfdriving-sensors-insight/ubers-use-of-fewer-safety-sensors-prompts-questions-after-arizona-crash-idUSKBN1H337Q


I said it before and I'll say it again ... Uber is a bad company, rotten to the core!


Brian
 

Offline helius

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #136 on: March 28, 2018, 02:41:58 pm »
It doesn't take a sophisticated AV to drive better than the average human driver.
I've heard this repeated like clockwork every time the safety issue comes up. But an AV system that cost over a billion dollars has killed a pedestrian after roughly 2 million vehicle-miles. The average human driver would have to drive half a billion miles to kill a pedestrian (12.5 fatalities per billion vehicle-miles in the US in 2016, of which 15% were pedestrians). All self-driving systems put together have only done 20 million miles or so, with multiple fatalities. Are you calling systems with many billions of dollars of development costs unsophisticated?

I think at this point it's safe to retire "AVs don't have to be very good to be better than humans" as a discredited argument.
 

Offline Halcyon

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #137 on: March 28, 2018, 09:57:04 pm »
Also, on another point, since this was essentially a "test vehicle", I'm curious whether or not Volvo's own safety systems (city safety etc...) were disabled and the control of the car was relying solely on third-party sensors, cameras, software etc... Volvo's technology (whilst still being a computer and not 100% fool proof) is designed to detect and avoid exactly this kind of collision. Those cars are also fitted with pedestrian air bags which lift the bonnet and deploy around the windscreen. There did not appear to be any evidence of this system activating.

Now that is an interesting question.

Called it!

I don't know why Uber tried to re-invent the wheel in some ways. Why not work WITH Volvo, considering they have an amazing track record for safety and their technology in their vehicles and had already developed a self-driving truck years ago.

 

Offline Gromitt

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #138 on: March 28, 2018, 10:39:01 pm »
Just to make it clear. The Volvo lorries in the video is not made by the same company that makes Volvo cars. They have nothing to do with each other. Volvo Cars is owned by the Chinese company Geely and Volvo Trucks is a company in Volvo Group.

Volvo Cars has not belonged to Volvo Group since 1999 when it was sold to Ford.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #139 on: March 29, 2018, 02:51:31 am »
It doesn't take a sophisticated AV to drive better than the average human driver.
I've heard this repeated like clockwork every time the safety issue comes up. But an AV system that cost over a billion dollars has killed a pedestrian after roughly 2 million vehicle-miles. The average human driver would have to drive half a billion miles to kill a pedestrian (12.5 fatalities per billion vehicle-miles in the US in 2016, of which 15% were pedestrians). All self-driving systems put together have only done 20 million miles or so, with multiple fatalities. Are you calling systems with many billions of dollars of development costs unsophisticated?

I think at this point it's safe to retire "AVs don't have to be very good to be better than humans" as a discredited argument.
Again: you have to seperate the distance travelled by the type of road to compare apples with apples because there are significant differences between the number of fatalities per km depending on the type of road. There is also insufficient data to determine the (statistical) distribution of fatal accidents. Besides that: where do you get to multiple fatalities? The Tesla autopilot crash doesn't count because it isn't an autonomous driving system. IOW: that someone got killed says zero about the chance it can happen again.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 02:53:33 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline MT

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #140 on: March 29, 2018, 03:06:44 am »
I don't really see how you can draw any comparisons in the crash / mile driven rate between humans and AVs.

Are AVs driving in snow?  How about in pouring rain with high wind?  Dirt roads without lane markers?  AVs are only driving in ideal locations, under ideal weather, aka perfect conditions.  This isn't the case for human drivers that still need to get to work when its snowing.

These comparisons are rubbish.

From where do you draw hideous conclusion i made the comparison? Its Don MacKenzie , call him up and tell him
not me. You on the other hand should be upset that you have a uni lab that all day long deals with these issues
who then comes up with rubbish comparisons and get paid for it and referenced all over US Fake media! Are Uber
paying them? This uni have 7 nobel price winners!
 

Offline metrologist

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #141 on: March 29, 2018, 04:59:07 am »
why would it be a rubbish comparison? I understand it's not valid, but does provide some value and insight into the program. The fact that AV are limited to ideal environments and have a significantly higher kill rate would seem relevant.

I think AV could work much better if they were limited to more heavily controlled environments - for example, shipping fleets that drive only along certain routes that provide adequate separation from pedestrians.
 

Offline Halcyon

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #142 on: March 29, 2018, 06:39:13 am »
Just to make it clear. The Volvo lorries in the video is not made by the same company that makes Volvo cars. They have nothing to do with each other. Volvo Cars is owned by the Chinese company Geely and Volvo Trucks is a company in Volvo Group.

Volvo Cars has not belonged to Volvo Group since 1999 when it was sold to Ford.

I'm fully aware of this, and despite being independent entities, it would be naive to think that technology and design aren't being shared or co-developed. Volvo (as a whole) have a vested interest in building and maintaining the "safety" image in their vehicles. Whether it's driving one of their trucks or passenger cars, they are  designing their vehicles so that no pedestrian is killed by a Volvo in the future.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 06:41:27 am by Halcyon »
 

Offline Gromitt

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #143 on: March 29, 2018, 06:44:04 am »
Just to make it clear. The Volvo lorries in the video is not made by the same company that makes Volvo cars. They have nothing to do with each other. Volvo Cars is owned by the Chinese company Geely and Volvo Trucks is a company in Volvo Group.

Volvo Cars has not belonged to Volvo Group since 1999 when it was sold to Ford.

I'm fully aware of this, and despite being independent entities, it would be naive to think that technology and design aren't being shared or co-developed. For example, the earlier Volvo S40 and the Ford Focus are essentially the same car.

Yes, but you put up a video about self drive Volvo lorries developed by Volvo Group and Volvo Cars does not belong to Volvo Group any more.

There are no co-development between Volvo Trucks and Volvo Cars, the only thing in common between them is the name/trademark Volvo, which Volvo Cars uses under licence from Volvo Group who ones it.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 06:54:38 am by Gromitt »
 

Offline orion242

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Online JohnnyMalaria

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #145 on: May 17, 2018, 04:18:45 am »
Shocked I say, shocked.  Someone massaging the numbers?

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107109_teslas-own-numbers-show-autopilot-has-higher-crash-rate-than-human-drivers

Wow. The author of that article clearly knows jack about statistics. Clearly nothing about the inherent foolhardiness of gross extrapolation. The arguments are just as vague and hand wavy as the data they try to poo-poo. The authoer doesn't even touch on the mentality of the people who can actually afford these cars and the immense false sense of security they get because they think it's driver-free. Don't believe me? See this act of stupidity and reckless endangerment of others:

Tesla driver who activated autopilot, hopped in passenger seat banned from driving

(Peeve alert: there's no such thing as a green car)
Tell me it can't be done and I'll do it.
 

Offline orion242

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Re: First pedestrian death by autonomous car...
« Reply #146 on: May 17, 2018, 08:07:55 am »
Clearly nothing about the inherent foolhardiness of gross extrapolation.

Yet we are constantly told they are safer, and who is putting these BS stats out there to begin with??
 


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