Okay, actually reading the contest it's not so much about improving ACs per se (at least not relative to the state of the art, the cut throat priced one they chose as base unit is pretty inefficient).
There's a volume limit, but not a dimension limit ... so basically all the entries will add as much flexible PV (low volume) as they can. You are also allowed to use radiative cooling and installation costs don't seem to factor in, so including
Skycool might help. You can also reduce the Climate impact simply by reducing the global warming potential of the refrigerant too, so you don't even need to get 5x less power consumption. The really tough problem is the humidity target, but not quite breaking the second law of thermodynamics hard.
RMI which inspired this contest actually has
a much better explanation where they see these gains coming from. The contest site mentions RMI, but if there's an easy to find link in there I didn't see it.
Question is, will consumers even be willing to pay the 2x up front costs for savings down the line? (And to save the environment I guess
) I kinda doubt it, government would have to make them.