LED-bulb experience so far:
* expensive ones last
* cheap(er) ones not so much, at least high(er)-power ones
Just recently I've had a 400lm bulb die on me (IKEA, 12€, lasted 21 months, about 1-2kh usage). The LEDs are still fine, but the power supply (based on TI TPS92070) started to go into thermal shutdown + stink. I didn't find any popped caps and it might still work, but I threw it out (power supply) and will convert to a low-voltage light.
The 5 expensive bulbs I bought years ago (Philips, 8W, about 30€ a pop) are still going strong and get used several hours a day.
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Experience with LEDs:
* expensive ones last (Nichia)
* cheap ones (ebay) die early or at least deteriorate significantly after months of usage (dimmer, change of color...)