Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[hammy]

If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.

I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand

On the other hand we get a lot of benefits, like reduction of CO2 emissions and we reduce the pollution with platinum, palladium and rhodium emitted from every catalytic converter.
(FunFact: Do you know the recycle rate for catalytic converters is just 30%? This part is build with rare metals, similar to the batteries in an EV.)

One remaining problem, in countries with a worn out electric grid, is the peak load. But even in every half-time break during the soccer world championship we can handle the peak at the whole EU at the same time.

The whole transformation to EVs provides new jobs and new technologies. Its a benefit for our health. We can improve a lot.
If someone doesn't want do drive an EV he can just stick with his conventional car. Who cares?

It's the same with oscilloscopes. You can buy and use one of the new Keysight DSOs and have fun, or you can still use your old analog Hameg HM204. Think about all the new technologies and changes in electronics during the last 20 years. We got a lot of new and exciting stuff to work and tinker with. There are also some grumpy old man who condemn this, but this new stuff motivated a lot of young people to work with electronics again. It is an overall revival for electronics engineering.
The same will happen with EVs.

Cheers
hammy

[hammy]

Its interesting that you quote an article which explains why it is not BS ... the average UK electricity consumption may not massively increase ... the wiring in the average street was not built for ... higher rated cables are needed, or ... Controlled charging times ...

These are doomsday predictions based on the grid today and is not including future local battery buffered charge points/stations and other advance in technology .
All these assumtions are always calculating with all electric cars need to charge the whole battery capacity at the same time. Thats like saying all cars need to fill up the gas at the station every evening at the same time.

Yes, I agree. In some countries, in some streets, there is the possibility a transformer can blow because all the EVs in this street. But this ist just a local event.

Rationale behind it is that 10 households time 6 kVA in a street can be served with a small inexpensive 60kVA transformer. If all of them want to charge a car at night , and need 20 kVA of power for 8 hours, you need much larger 200kVA transformer in local substation. And then every larger transformers feeding those small ones has to be upgraded to larger capacity.

Like in conventional cars your don't need to fill up the gas-tank completely, you also don't need to charge the whole capacity of an EV every evening/night.
Your number is to high, we charge our car with 3.6kW (4.5 kVA). Usually every third night. Usually for 3-4 hours.

Some countries will use more EVs than other countries. Like norway at the moment: 52% of all new cars are now BEV/PHEV. And it seams to work. For other countries maybe not, like eastern european countries.

Bottom line: yes, there are changes needed to our power grid, but these changes can be incorporated during the normal growing during the next years. It will be a slow transformation what kind of cars people want to use, and we are talking about 10 or 15 years for this process. After that the rate of EVs is maybe 30-40% for normal cars. And the power-grid has to be developed, just because of population increase.

However, my grandparents just had electricity for light, radio, cocking and the fridge. Later for television. Their need for electricity was way lower than our need today. And during the time we had always people who claimed we are dommed, when we use more eclectricity for these monstrous computers and all these other devices with high energy consumption. Think about the big datacenters we build all over the world. I would say they need more power than electric cars!
 
Today we are still here. If our whole industrie can not cope with the demand of tomorrow, what are they good for? It's their job to get it right. At the end you are all saying we cannot keep up with the technology change we face. And this is just silly, if you look in the past and resume the changes in technologie we had over the past decades - and the growth.

Cheers
hammy

[hammy]

That is in ballpark of  60-100 km per day ?

Roundabout 40km per day.

But needs to be  done before calling something mainstream.
Also, I live in a city. I park on the street with hundreds of other cars. Infrastructure has to be built. Very expensive infrastructure..
Mainstreaming EV's is not a technical problem but a logistic one.

Thats right. If you live in a city, without your own possibility to charge over night, a todays EV is not that practical. If your usage breaks down to a better ratio you can use your car over the week and charge it once a week at a fastcharger. Maybe somewhere during shopping or sitting at the barber. I assume we reach this point in 5-10 years.

It is a major multilevel project nobody wants to own. 

Following the news I have the impression a lot of companies want a piece of this cake and the race had already started. All energy companies put their fast-charger at our highways, Shell in UK is also building a fast-charger network, partnerchips of car manufacturer are building fast-charger networks here in europe. ABB and other companies already building the technology. Fastned from NL is expanding ... there is a lot going on ... at least in the western part of EU. I cannot talk about the US, Canada, Chile or Moldova.

Mainstream? No! But the already build infrastructure is already usable. We do longer car trips with our EV (500-700km) and we can charge during the trip (a stop for ~20 min) several times without problems. The daily commute is easy, we don't lose time and money at the petrol station any more.

Is an EV practical or usable for everyone? No, it will never. Based on personal preferences and other conditions it is not feasible for all people. But the other way around it is the same for conventional cars.

But thinking about infrastructure: 20 years ago I had my first cellular phone and cell coverage was not allways possible. Today we got LTE and Internet and all this stuff we can use with our samrtphone. Think about the needed infrastructure for this shit wounderful world of apps and social network services. The amount of computing power behind this. The needed energy for all these datacenters. The companies who just exist beause of the smartphone (instagram, facebook, ...). Today I charge my smartphone every night, 15 years ago I was laughing about this. My Nokia was able to run the whole week with one charge. 


Cheers
hammy

[hammy]

Maybe they could make drive-through charging stations:

Maybe this is a good charging solution for a bus on a circular route, or something like this. You can equip several streets your vehicle fleet uses frequently and you can run them 24/7.

[hammy]

If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home.

And again the same assumption: Over night all cars are replaced by EVs and the grid needs to be doubled. 

We are split what the exact numbers are, but whats the point? The grid needs to be developed? Sure! We need more electricity? Sure! We pay the companies for this development? Sure! They will handle this. It's a normal day-to-day process to develop, maintain and upgrade the infrastructure around us.

The amount of EVs will grow over the next decades and also the grid will be delevoped in the same time. The world will continue to turn. Everything will be fine, don't worry!

Cheers
hammy

[nctnico]

If charging an EV at home would be so easy in the NL then why are only 0.29% of the cars EVs? Numbers talk... A single observation not so much.

Perhaps there are a lot of guys like you who have a deep emotionally based belief that they won't work, aren't easy, etc?

Now you are pulling my text out of context. I'm just throwing a meaningless number at a meaningless observation.

[hammy]

Electricity distribution networks in Europe run at well below their full potential [...]. The findings show that the unused network capacity could be utilised for charging electric vehicles with little or no need for additional capacity. [...] All consumers, not just those with EVs, would benefit from spreading the costs of existing infrastructure over more load and minimising risky new investment. [...] The results suggest that these systems are operating at 50-70% of their potential. To place this in perspective, all current light-duty vehicles could be electrified with little or no need for additional network capacity.

http://energypost.eu/new-research-europes-electricity-networks-are-underused-and-have-ample-capacity-to-cope-with-electrification-of-cars/

[jonovid]

The question should be "When Will Electric Vehicles Become Mainstream?
as its not necessarily cars that are the most practical in the real world.
see this video of Indian traffic why motorcycles are better then cars.

the problem with most electric motorcycles thay are either too underpowered with poor range or have the performance needed. But otherwise are unaffordable.

its the affordable high to mid performance all electric motorcycle that will change everything.
with good range. IMO its the cheap all electric motorcycle with performance and range that will win the day.

updat-
example of a hypothetical e bike specification

5000 watt motor
top speed 120kmh
cab Weight 100 Kg with battery pack
can payload 500 Kg  pillion passengers
500 km or more range on a full charge.
interchangeable Lithium battery packs in standard sizes.
easy maintenance with interchangeable standardised electronics.
on board Ac overnight 8 hr battery charger
standard motorcycle tyre and wheel sizes.
cheap easy maintenance steel frame.
can power 12v motorcycle accessories.

[Fungus]

Self driving horses? 

[hammy]

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

2/3 of the world population do not live in an industrial nation. They are facing other problems. They don't think about cars, they think about food and a better life.

[hammy]

My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.

Preposterous! 

[hammy]

Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.  I would encourage you to lean about those people as you drive around in your electric car.  Why can’t those people have cars too?

Because their Goverment is destabilized since ages to get the oil and other ressources cheap from these countries. Look up "petrodollar" and "How the US Goverment destabilized foreign governments".

[hammy]

My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.

Preposterous! 

We can even do it with your car.  Just meet me at the top of one of the mountains where I live and I will show you.  THe entire way dawn your car will get over 100 mpg.

Chieldish argumentation behavior! How old are you? 

[wraper]

Dude you are mixed up.  We have been talking about self-driving car software and offer a link to semi-autonomous Autopilot software.

Now that's BS.   

Then give a link to your proper "self driving" statistics with extraordinary number of accidents reported.

[wraper]

You could start here for Waymo.  https://waymo.com/safety/

Where is the report on huge number of self driving car accidents, FFS? There is none in that document.

And since you asked for a link why not give me a link to data you used to call the data the selfdriving car softare companies as BS.

Because burden of proof is on person who made the claim. And where is the freaking data you are talking about? You made an extraordinary claim about self driving cars being involved in a lot of accidents, being orders of magnitude worse than real people, therefore it's you who need to back that claim with evidence. Where FFS are all of those accidents? You provided zero evidence so far. I did not even need to provide a link about Tesla autopilot, which is the closest as it gets to see how technology works in real life with regular people using it. And I don't call the data being BS (there is no such data) as you are implying. I call BS your claim which is not backed by any data.

[Marco]

As I said, 35 kW is enough to move a sedan at highway speeds and still have some juice left for charging. Obviously acceleration would be shit in and of itself, but the battery is still there.

[wraper]

And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.

Hours? One 30 minute stop at supercharger is enough to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Don't say that you won't make any stops with ICE car to fill the gas tank and to dump waste at gas station.

[wraper]

You can. In West Europe we have been doing that for decades and the lower SOx levels compared to the US and China show the result. Over 25 years ago I visited a coal power plant which used filters to get rid of NOx and SOx. A by-product was plaster which got used by the building materials industry.

But can you filter CO2? Particularly here, I notice climate change quiet a lot during last decades. Weather, especially during winter is nothing like it was 20-25 years ago. In China population is much denser, therefore effects are more noticeable. If China created as much pollution per person as US, it would be much worse than it is.

[wraper]

The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm.

Do you know what ppm is? The correct number is 667ppm of cars in US caught fire annually.

[wraper]

Um, hence what I said about stats.

Had you read actual stats I posted, it's obvious it's not in favor of ICE cars. Also had you read wiki page you linked to, you'd realize the same thing. And yeah, feelings are so much more important than real numbers  .

I notice no comment about the energy it takes to make an EV. The pious Prius population don't seem to care about that. They care about shaming others and spout hand-wavy bullshit about how electricity is cleaner. Laugh at yourself, friend.

I didn't feel need to comment more about already so flawed post, but OK. https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car

Table 8 concludes an EV requires 50 GJ and 3,250 CO2 to manufacture while a normal ICV requires 34 GJ and 2,000 kg of CO2.

You will spend 13.5 GJ per year if you commute using an EV and will produce 2,750 kg of CO2.

You will spend 21.3 GJ per year if you commute using an ICV and will produce 5,300 kg of CO2.

After 10 years (190,000 km):

EV:

50 GJ + (13.5 GJ x 10) = 185 GJ

3.25 + (2.75 x 10) = 30.75 tons of CO2

ICV:

34 GJ + (21.3 GJ x 10) = 247GJ

2 + (5.3 x 10) = 55 tons of CO2

[wraper]

Um, hence what I said about stats.

Had you read actual stats I posted, it's obvious it's not in favor of ICE cars. Also had you read wiki page you linked to, you'd realize the same thing. And yeah, feelings are so much more important than real numbers  . Conclusion based on pulled out of ass calculations  .

I notice no comment about the energy it takes to make an EV. The pious Prius population don't seem to care about that. They care about shaming others and spout hand-wavy bullshit about how electricity is cleaner. Laugh at yourself, friend.

I didn't feel need to comment more about already so flawed post, but OK. https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car

Table 8 concludes an EV requires 50 GJ and 3,250 CO2 to manufacture while a normal ICV requires 34 GJ and 2,000 kg of CO2.

You will spend 13.5 GJ per year if you commute using an EV and will produce 2,750 kg of CO2.
You will spend 21.3 GJ per year if you commute using an ICV and will produce 5,300 kg of CO2.

After 10 years (190,000 km):

EV:
50 GJ + (13.5 GJ x 10) = 185 GJ
3.25 + (2.75 x 10) = 30.75 tons of CO2

ICV:
34 GJ + (21.3 GJ x 10) = 247GJ
2 + (5.3 x 10) = 55 tons of CO2

Conclusion: manufacturing a car takes only a small portion of energy compared to what it will consume during its lifetime.

[wraper]

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bmw-i3-police-car-catches-fire-in-rome-bad-news-for-the-lapd-109367.html#

but it's worth pointing out at this moment that the i3 was equipped with a range extender, which means it came with a small gasoline engine that would act as a power generator charging the batteries on the go.

And then https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/23/bmw-recalling-19000-i3-rex-units-fuel-vapor-fire-danger/

BMW will be issuing a recall for over 19,000 i3 REx (range-extended) cars towards the beginning of April due to concerns about fuel vapors potentially starting fires, according to recent reports.

Yep, good old ICE 

[hammy]

I'm glad to see he estimates 19.9 kWh per 100 km. That's not the real thing either (under normal driving habits), but at least isn't the much lower silly figures most EV fanboys try to make us believe.

Appox 14 kWh/100km with our Ioniq driving at 100-110km/h on a highway.
You can calculate the range of your EV - and compare it to others - with this website: https://ecalc.ch/

There is a lot dinosaur roar in this thread. 

[wraper]