Author Topic: Wallerawang Power Station is dead forever  (Read 7188 times)

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Offline Synthtech

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Re: Wallerawang Power Station is dead forever
« Reply #50 on: May 16, 2018, 12:29:40 pm »
I never understood the often repeated “Most scientists agree” statement. Where does that come from? Most of the worlds scientists have no more understanding of climate than a checkout operator at a supermarket. What relevance does the opinion of someone with a degree in polymer structure have about the Earth’s climate?
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 12:31:15 pm by Synthtech »
 

Offline apis

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Re: Wallerawang Power Station is dead forever
« Reply #51 on: May 16, 2018, 12:59:57 pm »
I was referring to "scientific consensus" in general there, but otherwise I completely agree. What I really meant in this case was "most climate scientists agree", as would be obvious if one looks at the link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists%27_views_on_climate_change

The problem is that natural language is vague and ambiguous. The only ones that tries to be perfectly logically precise are mathematicians (in proofs at least), but those are more or less unreadable by ordinary mortals because of that.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 01:11:07 pm by apis »
 

Offline Zero999

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Re: Wallerawang Power Station is dead forever
« Reply #52 on: May 16, 2018, 04:31:23 pm »
There are other factors which determine the global temperature than solar output and the atmosphere. The distribution of land is one of them. In the northern hemisphere, the north pole is surrounded by ocean, which helps transfer energy from the equator. Look at how cold Antarctica is, compared to the same latitudes in the Arctic. For example, where I live, just north of 52° latitude, the average annual temperature is just under 10°C, compare this to the kind of climate found at 52°S, which is nearly 4°C cooler.

The downside to this is, in the northern hemisphere the cold air occasionally travels south and unless there are mountains in the way to block it. Vulnerable areas, in the north, are more prone to extreme cold, than those on similar latitudes in the southern hemisphere. In the southern hemisphere, the cold generally stays in Antarctica, trapped by a very strong polar vortex.

If Antarctica were further north, allowing the sea to circulate round the south pole, like it was millions of years ago, the planet would be warmer than it is today, which is shown by the above charts. There would be less sea ice, more efficient energy transfer to the south pole, from the equator and more thermal absorption, leading to a warmer global climate.

Those charts also don't show sea level rise, which would be disastrous.

Plants can also be killed by too much CO2. There's an optimum and plants on earth now, have evolved to cope with the current levels. Increasing CO2 levels could cause some plants to die out.

The medieval warm period affected the northern hemisphere, more than the southern hemisphere and the above charts don't show the global temperature, so are misleading.

The problem with the current temperature rise is the rate of change. The earth has been warmer in the past, than it is today, but the change was more gradual, so fauna and flora evolved to cope.

One problem with climate change is, no one can predict what will happen to the climate, in any one location. For example there's the theory it will lead to hotter, dryer summers and milder winters, over north-western Europe. I doubt this. It might make heat and drought more common and generally temperatures will increase, but higher temperatures generally lead to a wetter climate and changes in ocean currents could make us more vulnerable to severe cold snaps in winter.

One thing to note about cold snaps in the northern hemisphere is, they generally result in milder weather elsewhere. Warm air travelling up from the tropics, pushes cold air into the middle latitudes. The most recent cold spell was caused by a sudden stratospheric warming event, which caused temperatures in the Arctic to be much warmer, than usual, whist Europe froze. Another thing to note is that the UK winter just gone was not exceptionally cold: average UK temperatures from December to February were only 0.2°C, below the 1981 to 2010 average, which is still warmer than the average winter before 1981.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2018/winter
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 04:35:01 pm by Hero999 »
 


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