Author Topic: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars  (Read 54528 times)

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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #225 on: July 25, 2018, 09:16:12 am »
Yet there are some who feel that looking to the skies is an exercise in futility and our efforts should be focussed on the ground in front of them.

I for one believe that the many billions $ spent in the space race have benefited much the elites not the rest of mere mortals that paid for it, as always. But that's what the powers that rule do all time, nothing new.

https://youtu.be/fuWkcKbBQkg?t=2m25s
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 01:28:21 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline Brumby

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #226 on: July 25, 2018, 10:49:23 am »
Some might say that your statement has a rather subjective bias.
 

Offline ebastler

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #227 on: July 25, 2018, 12:57:03 pm »
Some might say that your statement has a rather subjective bias.

That's because objective bias is so hard to come by.  :P

In fairness, George did preface his post with "I for one believe...". Why would you blame him for voicing a subjective view after that introduction? In contrast, your prior post seems to claim objective truth (and moral high ground), for views which some might find debatable too...
 
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Offline Brumby

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #228 on: July 25, 2018, 01:49:35 pm »
In fairness, George did preface his post with "I for one believe...".

Yes.  I should have presented my comment as one of disagreement.

Apologies.
 

Offline In Vacuo Veritas

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #229 on: July 25, 2018, 01:52:03 pm »
Humans get bored easily.

They also die easily, Dave.

The word 'visionary' would seem to not exist in their lexicon.

Visions are a dime a dozen.



The problem with all you hubristic techno-extrapolators is that hindsight is 20/20, you think: someone had a vision, it became real! Ignoring entirely the millions of visions that were never viable and simply died. You think that picture is funny? Your 1960s space fantasies will look just as funny and dated to someone in 2060.

Remember fusion power too cheap to meter? Oh my. Remember supersonic passenger transport? Oh my!

Remember the leisure society? Uh oh.

Looks like REALITY is the arbiter of "visions", not how emotionally invested you are in them. You're not going anywhere. I'm not going anywhere. There is no Human Migration To The Stars (tm) (Ad Astra!) in our future. As engineers, you have the knowledge of how seriously limited our technology is, and how seriously large and hostile space is.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/why-not-space/

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2015/09/you-call-this-progress/

One glaring flaw I see over and over with the Space Nutter crowd is the following argument they always trot out: "But computers got better!" As if going into space was an information processing problem!  :-DD "Hey I can't breathe but CHECK OUT MY TERABYTE USB KEY!! COUGH COUGH ACK!"

The reason our computers got better is that the fundamental unit of information is such a small quantity of energy! It took decades for our manufacturing processes to make parts small enough to scale down to that level!

In the meantime, you'll find no such orders of magnitude leaps in energy use, material strength, propulsion technologies (real ones, not imaginary 1970s LSD visions).

You can't breathe bytes. You can't eat gigahertz.

It's pretty much game over for all those grandiose 1960s space dreams. I know it looks cool, I had my walls plastered with NASA posters, I built the Saturn V kit, I had the Space Shuttle on my nightstand, I collected astronaut bios and stories... And one day, I just saw it for the useless theater it all is. No one gets excited by the 1960s Sealab... Why not? The same ideas of "exploration" and tourism apply here too!

Hell we know less about the structure of our own planet than we do about Jupiter's magnetic field. Why is that? There are bacteria deep underground! You wanted alien life, THERE IT IS! It's RIGHT HERE!!!!

The fact that this DOESN'T excite you means you don't care about knowledge or exploration, you just care about the emotional symbolism of the whole space narrative. It's garbage.
 

Offline Brumby

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #230 on: July 25, 2018, 02:04:13 pm »
The problem with all you hubristic techno-extrapolators is that hindsight is 20/20, you think: someone had a vision, it became real! Ignoring entirely the millions of visions that were never viable and simply died.

That is a rather ignorant perspective.  Simply self-serving and laughably lacking logic.
 

Offline In Vacuo Veritas

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #231 on: July 25, 2018, 02:20:07 pm »
The problem with all you hubristic techno-extrapolators is that hindsight is 20/20, you think: someone had a vision, it became real! Ignoring entirely the millions of visions that were never viable and simply died.

That is a rather ignorant perspective.  Simply self-serving and laughably lacking logic.

Again, reality is not motivated by your disbelief. Self-serving?? YOU're the ones who think the whole universe is just a giant Wal Mart that owes YOU space colonies and asteroid mines! You want laughable ??  ???

And logic? How about this for logic: besides Apollo, no one has gone further than LEO for almost 50 years.

How you like that? You can shove that into a Karnaugh map and permutate it as much as you want, but in any case, it spells GAME OVER.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #232 on: July 25, 2018, 02:56:09 pm »
Mars has the raw materials needed for building a colony all in one place. The asteroids may not. Once Mars is self sufficient, it doesn't need space capabilities.

Here is another aspect I'm not buying.
Define self-sufficient.
To be a truly independent civilisation you need the ability to manufacture *everything* we take for granted now.
Advanced electronics, advanced materials, even relatively simple materials like plastics, and that's just for starters.
Were does all this magically come from?
If you sit down and make a list of stuff you's have on a mars base, and the vast mining, transportation, and manufacturing infrastructure required here on earth to produce them, you'd be shocked.
It's taken us hundreds of years here on earth to get the point we are at now.

Quote
Yeah, any self sufficient colony is a multi generational project

My bet is 10 generations minimum.

Quote
, but it must be started some time. We don't have a choice. That clip of Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 hitting Jupiter in 1994 is a warning.

And it would cost many orders of magnitude less than a Mars colony to get serious about mapping near-earth objects and devising ways to deflect them.
If you goal is to protect us again getting hit, the solution is obvious.

BTW, we have to protect earth first. What are we going to do, just ignore 5km asteroids and let them hit us and wipe us out? And don't worry, because we have some people on Mars as a backup.
The argument of using Mars as a backup for humanity is an utterly flawed and silly concept.

The argument "because we can" is all we humans need.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 02:57:55 pm by EEVblog »
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #233 on: July 25, 2018, 03:03:25 pm »
It's pretty much game over for all those grandiose 1960s space dreams.

Nope. A moon base for research and tourism is completely doable without reasonable engineering limitations.
Mars is not.
You simply can't beat being able to get there and back in a few days and have almost real-time communications with earth.

Quote
Hell we know less about the structure of our own planet than we do about Jupiter's magnetic field. Why is that? There are bacteria deep underground! You wanted alien life, THERE IT IS! It's RIGHT HERE!!!!

Finding life off this planet would be a HUGE deal.
 

Offline In Vacuo Veritas

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #234 on: July 25, 2018, 03:50:40 pm »

Nope. A moon base for research and tourism is completely doable without reasonable engineering limitations.


Except for a reason to do it, I guess. And you have a funny notion of "completely doable". Making a SEALAB for research and tourism is "completely doable" as well, where is it?

Here's a research station:

http://www.southpolestation.com/

Are you keeping up to date with the research done there? Why not? Planned any trips there? Why not?
 

Offline Eka

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #235 on: July 25, 2018, 04:28:31 pm »

Visions are a dime a dozen.
So is your vision of it being impractical/impossible to colonize Mars and space.

Those that do, try, try, and try again until they succeed. That video of all the landing failures is those tries before success. Now they routinely land them. The fact that you don't have the motivation anymore is an issue with you, not Elon Musk and crew.

Mars has the raw materials needed for building a colony all in one place. The asteroids may not. Once Mars is self sufficient, it doesn't need space capabilities.

Here is another aspect I'm not buying.
Define self-sufficient.
To be a truly independent civilisation you need the ability to manufacture *everything* we take for granted now.
Advanced electronics, advanced materials, even relatively simple materials like plastics, and that's just for starters.
Were does all this magically come from?
If you sit down and make a list of stuff you's have on a mars base, and the vast mining, transportation, and manufacturing infrastructure required here on earth to produce them, you'd be shocked.
It's taken us hundreds of years here on earth to get the point we are at now.

Quote
Yeah, any self sufficient colony is a multi generational project

My bet is 10 generations minimum.

Quote
, but it must be started some time. We don't have a choice. That clip of Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 hitting Jupiter in 1994 is a warning.

And it would cost many orders of magnitude less than a Mars colony to get serious about mapping near-earth objects and devising ways to deflect them.
If you goal is to protect us again getting hit, the solution is obvious.

BTW, we have to protect earth first. What are we going to do, just ignore 5km asteroids and let them hit us and wipe us out? And don't worry, because we have some people on Mars as a backup.
The argument of using Mars as a backup for humanity is an utterly flawed and silly concept.

The argument "because we can" is all we humans need.
If we can build a colony on Mars, finding and deflecting a killer asteroid is easy. We'd have to map the asteroid belt for reliable transport back and forth. No reason we can't have both programs and many others at the same time. We as a society just need to divert 1/4 the money spent on the military to space exploration, asteroid finding projects, etc. Where there is a will, there is a way. General society doesn't have the will. They are to focused on sports and entertainment. I applaud Musk and crew for having the will and putting their money and effort towards the cause. I wish I was healthy enough to join in. Instead I'm spending my time trying to get researchers to fill in the voids in the knowledge of cellular chemical processes so it is possible to figure out why my body isn't producing enough ATP, and whatever else is needed to keep me active and healthy.
 

Offline Nusa

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #236 on: July 25, 2018, 04:36:19 pm »

Nope. A moon base for research and tourism is completely doable without reasonable engineering limitations.


Except for a reason to do it, I guess. And you have a funny notion of "completely doable". Making a SEALAB for research and tourism is "completely doable" as well, where is it?

Here's a research station:

http://www.southpolestation.com/

Are you keeping up to date with the research done there? Why not? Planned any trips there? Why not?
Tour groups do travel to the south pole.

It's not cheap, which limits the audience to the wealthy. It's also not luxurious, which eliminates all those who expect pampering. And it requires a certain level of physical fitness, including the ability to walk in heavy clothing and acclimate to high altitude, which eliminates many of the elderly, disabled, and those with health problems.

Despite all the barriers, there are some tourists to the South Pole go every year.  We've had tourism to the ISS, which proves that there are always some people willing to spend whatever it takes to get here. Once it's possible to visit the Moon, there WILL be some tourists wanting to go. Ditto for any other truly remote place that humans someday inhabit.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #237 on: July 25, 2018, 04:47:48 pm »
So is your vision of it being impractical/impossible to colonize Mars and space.

Those that do, try, try, and try again until they succeed. That video of all the landing failures is those tries before success. Now they routinely land them. The fact that you don't have the motivation anymore is an issue with you, not Elon Musk and crew.

At least I hope you understand you're paying for all those gigantic altruist (not) efforts, even though nobody asked if you wanted to pay them or not. That's what irritates me most.

Your country's public debt is ~= $18036300000000 (not counting interests). You are the public.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 05:16:25 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline james_s

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #238 on: July 25, 2018, 05:12:25 pm »
As has been mentioned already, the amount each of us pays for the entire space program is miniscule, it's an insignificant drop in the bucket and not worth getting irritated over. Less than $40 a year for the average American anyway, not sure about other countries. People blow more than that on a single night at the bar.
 

Offline In Vacuo Veritas

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #239 on: July 25, 2018, 05:14:35 pm »

Visions are a dime a dozen.
So is your vision of it being impractical/impossible to colonize Mars and space.

Um, that's not how logic works. YOU have the burden of proof that your claim is practical. YOU make the claim, YOU back it up.

Stating that your claim is not backed by evidence is not a "vision", it is SEEING. Reality, give it a try!


Despite all the barriers, there are some tourists to the South Pole go every year. 

What barriers? It's the same planet, air is always there, gravity is correct, radiation is shielded, water and food are available, technology used to get there is commonly available, it's not far.
 

Offline Nusa

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #240 on: July 25, 2018, 05:30:06 pm »

Despite all the barriers, there are some tourists to the South Pole go every year. 

What barriers? It's the same planet, air is always there, gravity is correct, radiation is shielded, water and food are available, technology used to get there is commonly available, it's not far.

Actually the air is thin, the radiation is higher than elsewhere on the planet, most food is only available if imported, and its a lot farther than typical vacationers go.

But since you say there are no barriers, when are you going? Oh wait, you found some barriers after all? Perhaps some of those I already mentioned but you clipped in your zeal to discredit? Never mind that you completely and deliberately ignored the overall point of what I said.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #241 on: July 25, 2018, 05:48:40 pm »
Even $1 is too much, if you don't ask first. In my humble opinion, ehhh.
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Offline rdl

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #242 on: July 25, 2018, 05:51:05 pm »
Funny how despite all the doom and gloom, all the derision and ridicule, the business of doing stuff in space seems to be moving along pretty well.
 

Offline In Vacuo Veritas

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #243 on: July 25, 2018, 06:01:39 pm »
Funny how despite all the doom and gloom, all the derision and ridicule, the business of doing stuff in space seems to be moving along pretty well.

"Stuff", sure. Metal boxes with radios in them. "Space", as in LEO or GEO. Sure.

What does this have to do with sending people to the Moon or colonizing Mars? Funny how your Space Nutter Distortion Field skews your perception.

Perhaps some reality is in order:

www.distancetomars.com
 

Offline ebastler

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #244 on: July 25, 2018, 06:02:10 pm »
Funny how despite all the doom and gloom, all the derision and ridicule, the business of doing stuff in space seems to be moving along pretty well.

Deploying satellites seems to be an actual (profitable) business. What else?
 

Offline In Vacuo Veritas

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #245 on: July 25, 2018, 06:09:21 pm »

Despite all the barriers, there are some tourists to the South Pole go every year. 

What barriers? It's the same planet, air is always there, gravity is correct, radiation is shielded, water and food are available, technology used to get there is commonly available, it's not far.

Actually the air is thin, the radiation is higher than elsewhere on the planet, most food is only available if imported, and its a lot farther than typical vacationers go.

There is air. It's breathable. It doesn't rely on a technological system to be there. The radiation is still safer than anywhere in space. And what's your point about food? You think there's a Trader Joe's waiting for you on Mars fully stocked with Barsoom Granola Bars?

What part of: hostile deadly empty barren lifeless radiation-blasted toxic hell are you not understanding?

And what? Space isn't further than typical vacationers go? And what "vacation" can you have in "space"? You're stuck in a tin can! How long do you think you'll enjoy free fall staring out a window? You'll see the same exact space you can see at night!  |O

But since you say there are no barriers, when are you going? Oh wait, you found some barriers after all? Perhaps some of those I already mentioned but you clipped in your zeal to discredit? Never mind that you completely and deliberately ignored the overall point of what I said.

Yeah, imagine that. Barriers exist, and for space they are insurmountable except for nation states playing Historical Reenactment Theater.

So what?
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #246 on: July 25, 2018, 06:12:36 pm »
Funny how despite all the doom and gloom, all the derision and ridicule, the business of doing stuff in space seems to be moving along pretty well.
Well, yeah, Space Sex, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin. Are there any more?
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 06:15:02 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline Tepe

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #247 on: July 25, 2018, 06:15:19 pm »
As has been mentioned already, the amount each of us pays for the entire space program is miniscule, it's an insignificant drop in the bucket and not worth getting irritated over. Less than $40 a year for the average American anyway, not sure about other countries. People blow more than that on a single night at the bar.
And - importantly - the money spent does not magically disappear. It moves, jobs are created, people are fed and ultimately some of it ends up in the public coffers again..
 

Offline Tepe

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #248 on: July 25, 2018, 06:16:23 pm »
Funny how despite all the doom and gloom, all the derision and ridicule, the business of doing stuff in space seems to be moving along pretty well.
Well, yeah, Space Sex, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin. Are there any more?
Arianespace?
 

Offline ebastler

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Re: Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars
« Reply #249 on: July 25, 2018, 06:19:54 pm »
And - importantly - the money spent does not magically disappear. It moves, jobs are created, people are fed and ultimately some of it ends up in the public coffers again..

That argument would also serve nicely in a campaign to recommit the complete "space" budget to folk dance festivals.
 


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