Author Topic: FranLab is getting evicted  (Read 251224 times)

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Offline james_s

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #75 on: October 09, 2018, 12:29:53 am »
At the same time, in many parts of the US, there are these huge abandoned malls. Seems like it would make sense to turn at least some of them into live work spaces for small businesses, sort of as incubators.

Unfortunately, we never do things that make that much sense here any more.

:(

If repurposing old malls is such a genius idea, why don't you do it? Who's stopping you? If getting rich through property flipping is so easy, why haven't you done it? Debt is cheap in America, and any old moron can get a loan for a couple million with a tiny amount of collateral. What are you waiting for?

Getting richer flipping property is relatively easy, getting rich, not so much. You really need to have a substantial amount of cash on hand to buy up a lot of those properties, can't just go take out a bank loan and if you do, the interest will eat up much of the profit. Once one has a certain amount of wealth it gets progressively easier to acquire more wealth.
 

Online coppercone2

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #76 on: October 09, 2018, 12:34:19 am »
you also want to be willing to deal with massive amounts of utter bullshit.

there is the hidden cost of going to visit those properties and having to maintain some kind of vision. Then renting and being a land lord to some degree or hiring people that don't suck. It;s a headache. You could try to get by with heavy handed lease agreements and stuff but that limits client base.

Then you have all sorts of bullshit relating to industry in the area, zoning, chemicals storage for business use. And you can easily get involved in litigation.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 12:38:50 am by coppercone2 »
 

Offline sokoloff

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #77 on: October 09, 2018, 12:37:19 am »
Ah, OK, so it's not such a free and easy path to riches then which I think was a59d1's point...
 

Online coppercone2

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #78 on: October 09, 2018, 12:41:09 am »
Ah, OK, so it's not such a free and easy path to riches then which I think was a59d1's point...

If you hire professionals to do everything for you, you can get by just being an ideas man but the margins become slimmer and slimmer.

Even for a simple rental something like a shady HVAC repair man or plumber can fuck you in the ass hard.. you need to patrol that shit or just be willing to have alot of exposure. If you have alot you might need to hire managers, which you then need to super vise. It's basically similar to running a business. If you know how to do all that stuff to some degree to where systems remain maintained and functional you can save a pretty sum of money.. but then you need to be on call basically. Otherwise you just need to trust that a repair is good.. or you might end up fighting with contractors.

It can be the stupidest shit, like say you have an out door HVAC unit and you hire a lawn care guy. Tennant does not give a shit, but wants the AC back on as per the lease. Then you need to either shell out hard for a repair.. or if you wanna save money you can investigate the manner yourself to see if maybe the lawn care guy broke it, or if you can prove he broke it. Easy 2000$ loss right there. Typically if you own the property your pretty careful to at lease observe, determine if damage occurred after services, work being done, etc but you can't really 'demand' the tenant do that.

It still either comes down to having a good relationship with the tenant to have him do some leg work (inspection, pictures, talking to the repair people), or for you to work as a remote facilities manager, or just write some insane lease that says you don't give a fuck if something breaks (which people don't wanna go for unless its really cheap). The financially reasonable/easy way is to get property where you are and organize your life so you have time to deal with those issues. If you are working a 40 hour a week job and the property is 3 hours drive, you can go mad if you had to work late then you need to deal with some broke crap in another city. Home owner might know how to use a snake to unclog a toilet. Tenant will likely ask for a plumber. Thats 200$ for a clogged john. God forbid the heating goes out in the winter.

I don't know how it scales financially when you own alot of properties though.

Also keep in mind when your own property breaks, you usually know the town/city and have contacts, so you know whats reasonable, and you might call a few services to shop around.. and over time you get to know the best services etc so you can save money. If you need to do that for 10 houses in 10 different locations imagine how much home work you have. It's not like you have good neighbors you can ask.. your just some land lord.

You can also get blood pressure raising stuff like someone demanding a carpenter to come in to tighten a screw on a cabinet door (for real). Electrical inspection because someone 'smelled something'.

Someone in my family was a super.. and believe me it can be super frustrating. Going to your property and you see the place is a pig sty.

You kinda need to treat it like a investment I think, set rules for yourself and follow them (i.e. make a plan to actually be professional and call a plumber or tech immediately, rather then trying save a few bucks by begging tenants to do things, or be tempted to decide to 'drive around doing over time' to save a few bucks... ) then you can focus on buying more property.. but its hard to accept stupid ass cash hemorrhaging that can theoretically be prevented. When your big its probobly easier, but then you can end up getting a bad reputation because you don't do your homework with correct service choice (if you end up having a brand name etc).. people get pissed if they talk to someone in the area and they find out your hiring the biggest slack asses. 

There is a old funny cartoon about this, called the PJ's.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 01:06:59 am by coppercone2 »
 

Online coppercone2

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #79 on: October 09, 2018, 01:08:00 am »


then there is also that movie with Joe Pesci 'the super'. I probably like this movie more then most since I grew up with someone in my family being a super in a rather bad building with super greedy owners.

As for flipping, thats everyones plan... homes can take a while to sell but rent quick.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 01:31:51 am by coppercone2 »
 

Offline cdev

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #80 on: October 09, 2018, 02:28:19 am »
I keep hearing that everything connected to the US and investment is being puffed up tremendously by large investment from Asia in particular. There is a perception that the US (and Australia) are two of the safest places to invest - while many other countries are - at least their inhabitants believe, so extremely corrupt, so corrupt they are on the verge of revolutions.

Also there is the huge demographic hump of older people, coming as it is just as technology is eliminating (soon) billions of jobs. Plus we have trade obligations where other countries claim we owe them access to the shrinking pools of jobs we have, in perpetuity! After all, they are cheaper.

This is why there is pressure all around- for example, the EU, UK, US all are dumping their social safety nets.  Otherwise they would have to raise taxes and then the investments would stop pouring in.

At the same time, in many parts of the US, there are these huge abandoned malls. Seems like it would make sense to turn at least some of them into live work spaces for small businesses, sort of as incubators.

Unfortunately, we never do things that make that much sense here any more.

:(

If repurposing old malls is such a genius idea, why don't you do it? Who's stopping you? If getting rich through property flipping is so easy, why haven't you done it? Debt is cheap in America, and any old moron can get a loan for a couple million with a tiny amount of collateral. What are you waiting for?

Getting richer flipping property is relatively easy, getting rich, not so much. You really need to have a substantial amount of cash on hand to buy up a lot of those properties, can't just go take out a bank loan and if you do, the interest will eat up much of the profit. Once one has a certain amount of wealth it gets progressively easier to acquire more wealth.

Yes, exactly. Just ask our President, the "self made billionaire". (cough)
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 

Offline tooki

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #81 on: October 09, 2018, 10:02:14 am »
LMAO no. The US is not special in this.

Asian, Russian, and Arab investment is a huge problem in any halfway desirable real estate market in any halfway stable country anywhere in the world. It’s why New York and London are getting so insanely expensive (London has neighborhoods that are now 75%+ uninhabited foreign investment properties, with buyers willing to pay anything, but not living there, thus causing local business to collapse).


This is why there is pressure all around- for example, the EU, UK, US all are dumping their social safety nets.  Otherwise they would have to raise taxes and then the investments would stop pouring in.
:-DD

Riiight.

The UK is dumping its social safety nets because the tories are just as heartless, deluded, and evil as the GOP.

Good social safety nets have a net positive effect on economies (it stabilizes), so it’s ideologically driven, lot logically.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 10:05:15 am by tooki »
 

Offline james_s

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #82 on: October 09, 2018, 04:19:35 pm »
LMAO no. The US is not special in this.

Asian, Russian, and Arab investment is a huge problem in any halfway desirable real estate market in any halfway stable country anywhere in the world. It’s why New York and London are getting so insanely expensive (London has neighborhoods that are now 75%+ uninhabited foreign investment properties, with buyers willing to pay anything, but not living there, thus causing local business to collapse).


I'm a little surprised they don't have serious problems with squatting if that many are uninhabited. I'm also surprised more places don't do what Canada did and tax the hell out of properties owned by non-resident foreign investors. I certainly wish they'd do that down in my area. Odd as it may sound, I'd love to drive down the value of my property to maybe 50% of what it's currently worth. It's wealth only on paper and the higher the property value, the more I pay in property taxes for no benefit to me unless I sell it, and that doesn't help me because I need to live somewhere.
 

Offline tooki

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #83 on: October 09, 2018, 04:44:15 pm »
I'm a little surprised they don't have serious problems with squatting if that many are uninhabited. I'm also surprised more places don't do what Canada did and tax the hell out of properties owned by non-resident foreign investors.
They’re generally high-end urban properties, many are apartments, many are row houses, some are standalone buildings. In any case, as investment properties that they use instead of hotels when in town, they will have caretakers. I’ve heard of roads in London where the only actual residents are the handful of live-in caretakers hired to keep the houses safe and clean, and to manage the gardeners, etc.  :(

From an economics standpoint, a problem is that they’re only used a short time out of the year, if at all, or even if there’s a live-in caretaker, it might be one person in a house that should live 8...

I googled a bit and it also seems that a ton of the foreign-owned buildings are rental properties. So off the market for local buyers, but not unoccupied at least.


I'm also surprised more places don't do what Canada did and tax the hell out of properties owned by non-resident foreign investors. I certainly wish they'd do that down in my area.
Indeed!!! I’m not entirely sure what the motivation is for places like London and New York to not restrict foreign buyers, given the acute affordable housing shortages in both. Is it just property tax greed?


Odd as it may sound, I'd love to drive down the value of my property to maybe 50% of what it's currently worth. It's wealth only on paper and the higher the property value, the more I pay in property taxes for no benefit to me unless I sell it, and that doesn't help me because I need to live somewhere.
Doesn’t sound odd at all, it makes perfect sense.
 

Offline cdev

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #84 on: October 09, 2018, 04:47:42 pm »
The Internet (in its capacity as a surveillance wet dream come true) is replacing the safety nets.

I venture to say we will not see many more revolutions (than we did in the past).

 Nor, I suspect are we likely to see true democracy, (meaning the kind that can actually fix things) unless a great many things change. FTAs that limit the policy space for things of economic relevance, in the interest of certainty for MNCs, (with a sop thrown in to pay lip service to economic integration) are incompatible with democracy. Because people would vote to fix problems, and they would never vote to do things that maximized the income stream for investors, as policy is forced into now.

For democracy to work, people need to have a 'commons' where everything can be discussed - even policy not desired by the MNCs.

With the number of working people likely to decline greatly, society has to figure out what to do about the people who suddenly find themselves and the skills they worked for so long to gain, unable to earn income. In the environment we are entering carving anything in stone is a mistake, but that is exactly what is being done, in a panic reaction. very bad decisions are being made in a rush to "future proof" the future.

Right now, most of us, are very lacking in understanding of the implications of, for example, machine learning. Why? Part of it is intentional, people who think the current state of everything will continue as it is are much easier to manipulate. Also, people who think a current state of employment is about to end have statistically been shown to be far more likely to commit frauds.

Although some want to give up on educating people (whats the point, they say, "if few will be good enough to ever get jobs", why give people unrealistic expectations") thats very stupid because what is likely to happen when people are freed of work is ironically, an explosion of hugely creative activities that ironically are likely to create lots of new wealth.

But only if people have health, and a good quality of life and friends to share it with, what you were saying, tooki.

What a shame that they have made expanding safety nets a "taking" that must be compensated to corporations, isnt it?  The kinds of "public good" that we all can see would be a plus in communities, is forbidden because its encouraged by a government entity, who are supposed to never hurt businesses investments.

So no more non-market anything, unless it already existed 20 years ago and isnt changed. It can only be privatized, never re-nationalized, thats the ideology. A one way ratchet exists. (Shhh!)

This is what I mean about people being ignorant.

People also really need to understand computer science better, thats for sure.

And its implications for 'civil society' in all sorts of ways. Especially employment.


LMAO no. The US is not special in this.

Asian, Russian, and Arab investment is a huge problem in any halfway desirable real estate market in any halfway stable country anywhere in the world. It’s why New York and London are getting so insanely expensive (London has neighborhoods that are now 75%+ uninhabited foreign investment properties, with buyers willing to pay anything, but not living there, thus causing local business to collapse).


This is why there is pressure all around- for example, the EU, UK, US all are dumping their social safety nets.  Otherwise they would have to raise taxes and then the investments would stop pouring in.
:-DD

Riiight.

The UK is dumping its social safety nets because the tories are just as heartless, deluded, and evil as the GOP.

Good social safety nets have a net positive effect on economies (it stabilizes), so it’s ideologically driven, lot logically.

Quote
Tooki: "Good social safety nets have a net positive effect on economies (it stabilizes), so it’s ideologically driven, lot logically."

Tooki, I agree with you - totally, but you have to understand, we're heading into uncharted territory now economically because of something important.

Exponential growth in knowledge and for that reason, uncertainty. Its a very good thing in almost all ways, or should be. But it would need democracy to be navigated successfully.

The democracy we can't be allowed to have, now, as some see it. Precisely because we need it so badly.

Imagine you are on top of the world now.


To you, every change is a threat, because you're on top NOW.

By on top I don't mean any specific country, I mean the people who are on top in all countries, and nobody else.

As far as the rest of us, everywhere, we're representative of the so called "mob's" thinking (yes, some people actually do use that term)

So, divide and conquer.

Therefore the stuff we're getting from the media is lacking any coverage at all on most of the most important issues and dominated by issues that are designed to divide and conquer us when in fact we would all agree on the important stuff we're not told about.

We're being manipulated VERY skillfully to create a 'record' for the future of fake consent to things we've never (and will never be) told about.

Look up 'shock therapy' in the context of what we've done to other countries. (Most Americans don't know anything about this.) But now they are getting ready to do the same things to us.  Thats why there is all the commotion.

Both 'parties' in the US are playing a 'good cop bad cop' routine.

And the political candidates in many cases limit themselves to these wedge issues.

To cover up never getting anything fixed for as long as possible why they try to nail future policy down via backroom FTAs. (which do an end run around democracy)

The very few (you could count them on your fingers) candidates who discuss the real issues are either ostracized by all the rest, and everything they say is spun in a way as to shred any sense it makes, by the media, or fake and very skilled at deception, and likely plan to never win. By this the will of the people is frustrated.

This pattern is likely being replicated all around the world.

Here its easy to prove by how they structure it. But people are so heavily misled they wouldn't recognize it when they saw it. They often think the bits of real news are "fake news"!

I would be willing to bet the exact same thing is going on now in the UK. And MANY other countries.

Just wait and see, They are 20-30 years ahead of us on this. Thats why they are rich and we're not.

They see themselves as the true owners of everything. Its kind of like the enclosures of the past, what they are doing. Shifting the beneficial ownership of the planet's resources and policy totally to themselves.

I can't go any deeper into this because I'd get tossed off this blog. Do some research in the academic literature on trade and you'll see the disconnect.

Some day this will all be uncovered and people are going to be disgusted by how sordid it is.

It will make all these other issues seem insignificant. They all really must be having a good laugh at all of our expense over drinks at the end of the day.

I could be wrong I suppose, and I am sure I am on some of the minor points Ive made. My mental model is just a hypothesis. But, the anomalies that I see are so damning that its 100% clear to me that the model most of us think is true, isn't.

If it was we would have fixed a lot of our problems long ago. We're very much victims of abuse who fail to realize how brutal it was until after its over because we've not ever had a state of non-abuse to compare it to. 

Hint, things would work for people. Most people would have happy lives.

Diversity of opinions and backgrounds would be celebrated - not just tolerated, or even worse, attacked.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 05:42:19 pm by cdev »
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 
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Offline rsjsouza

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #85 on: October 09, 2018, 05:32:02 pm »
Odd as it may sound, I'd love to drive down the value of my property to maybe 50% of what it's currently worth. It's wealth only on paper and the higher the property value, the more I pay in property taxes for no benefit to me unless I sell it, and that doesn't help me because I need to live somewhere.
Doesn’t sound odd at all, it makes perfect sense.
I say the same thing: people put so much worth on the value of the house they forget about the cost of living itself. I guess this happens because nobody plans to live in the same place for a long time (and that's why IME houses are usually poorly maintained where I live)
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Offline tooki

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #86 on: October 09, 2018, 05:47:01 pm »
Odd as it may sound, I'd love to drive down the value of my property to maybe 50% of what it's currently worth. It's wealth only on paper and the higher the property value, the more I pay in property taxes for no benefit to me unless I sell it, and that doesn't help me because I need to live somewhere.
Doesn’t sound odd at all, it makes perfect sense.
I say the same thing: people put so much worth on the value of the house they forget about the cost of living itself. I guess this happens because nobody plans to live in the same place for a long time (and that's why IME houses are usually poorly maintained where I live)
Yeah, I think a lot of Americans (at least) really overextended themselves when buying, and bought properties they could afford the mortgage on, but not the maintenance. :/
 
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Offline cdev

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #87 on: October 09, 2018, 05:56:31 pm »
Two words, eminent domain.

If you live in the US, everything changed in 2005-2006. Now its perfectly legal for some real estate developer to displace you because they have some money making proposal which your local government sees as awarding benefit, to them.

Why let you capture the increase in value when your track record of moneymaking is generic, while that of Mr. Developer is good.

As real economic activity declines, churning increases exponentially.

Nobody makes any money by people just staying where they are and living nice lives. Thats their attitude. In some areas there is precious little other economic activity (other than churning) and its going to get far worse as more and more things are automated and tax receipts fall.

Few communities, even the ones you think would or should, take the long views that need to be taken. When they try to, they eventually find that FTAs stand in the way.   This is, and will become more and more difficult to change because its an international game where everything is now 'tradable'. Including jobs.

Because there are far too few one eyed, let alone sighted men and women in the kingdom of the blind.

...

Odd as it may sound, I'd love to drive down the value of my property to maybe 50% of what it's currently worth. It's wealth only on paper and the higher the property value, the more I pay in property taxes for no benefit to me unless I sell it, and that doesn't help me because I need to live somewhere.
Doesn’t sound odd at all, it makes perfect sense.
I say the same thing: people put so much worth on the value of the house they forget about the cost of living itself. I guess this happens because nobody plans to live in the same place for a long time (and that's why IME houses are usually poorly maintained where I live)
"What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away."
 

Offline sokoloff

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #88 on: October 09, 2018, 05:59:23 pm »
Tooki, I agree with you - totally, but you have to understand, we're heading into uncharted territory now economically because of something important.

Exponential growth in knowledge and for that reason, uncertainty. Its a very good thing in almost all ways, or should be. But it would need democracy to be navigated successfully.
I doubt that the rate of knowledge increase is exponential. I can't see any mechanism that would be substantially higher than quadratic with time. (The world population is growing much closer to linearly - an R2 fit against a straight line of over 0.999, and knowledge acquisition is likely to be governed at the upper bound by some integration of previous knowledge and population.)
 

Offline apis

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #89 on: October 09, 2018, 06:39:46 pm »
The world population is growing much closer to linearly - an R2 fit against a straight line of over 0.999, and knowledge acquisition is likely to be governed at the upper bound by some integration of previous knowledge and population.
World population isn't really growing anymore, or rather, the birthrate is more or less constant now. The population is still growing for a little while longer because there are still fewer people in the oldest generations that are dying than the youngest generations having babies, but that will change and stabilise pretty soon.
 

Offline technix

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #90 on: October 09, 2018, 06:55:48 pm »
Can Fran at least get some sensible compensation for evicting? Here in China after a few high-profile eviction dramas (those "nail tenants") the legislature actually passed laws criminalized those building cleaners and giving tremendous negotiation power. At least in Shanghai eviction for redevelopment usually leads to the tenant being given a new residence, often more than one if the tenant has kids or grandkids, and a lump sum of money as compensation.

Should Fran's situation happen here in Xuhui (kind of equivalent of Fran's current location in her city) she would get at least one apartment in the suburbs like Minhang (a bit far from he city center but close enough to the Metro lines) and close to US$1M in cash, and she is entitled to stay there until the redeveloper paid up.

The world population is growing much closer to linearly - an R2 fit against a straight line of over 0.999, and knowledge acquisition is likely to be governed at the upper bound by some integration of previous knowledge and population.
World population isn't really growing anymore, or rather, the birthrate is more or less constant now. The population is still growing for a little while longer because there are still fewer people in the oldest generations that are dying than the youngest generations having babies, but that will change and stabilise pretty soon.
Parts of the world is actually experiencing a population decline. Germany has been on this track for quite a while and has heavily relied on eastern European workforce brought over thanks to EU and Schengen Agreement. Even in China almost all major cities, Peking, Shanghai, Guangzhou and HK are all suffering from an aging population and a decline in local workforce, and having to rely on people from other places to even run the city. The Chinese example is particularly alarming since the customs of family reunion during Chinese New Year means during that time the major cities are almost empty with a lot of semi-essential services shut down. (It is lucky that China has employed AI and automation in those cities, so during that holiday the essential services can be largely left on unmonitored autopilot.)
 

Offline cdev

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #91 on: October 09, 2018, 08:13:59 pm »
If she was an owner and was getting pushed out by eminent domain she would be entitled to "fair market value" but studies show that often the former owners got substantially less than fair market value at the time, and right after that it shot up.

As a renter, it depends on if her community has a 'just cause' eviction /condo conversion law.

But they - those kinds of laws, which generally limit rent increases and other changes to an arbitrary figure based on the estimated "consumer price index" - as well as other laws that require some 'below market rate' housing (which is still way too expensive for the people being displaced, who often don't even drive so living in rural areas, will be at best life changing, more likely than not it will be unmanageable.) be built, instead of all multi-million dollar condos) are on shaky legal ground nationally, because of the changes that have been occurring here recently.

(Also, what happens when or if the bubble breaks which you know it must, eventually.)

Miraculously, most people here, for the most part, have been kept completely oblivious to these changes by obviously phony candidates that puff up their confidence by telling them what they think they want to hear, even if it has little if any resemblance to whats really going on.

Generally, even in cities which are alleged to be the most favorable to renters, the owners hold pretty much all of the cards, that is, unless a bigger fish comes along and is able to displace them. Which happens a lot if an area doesn't maintain its spending.

This is why ending so called "net neutrality" is so important to certain people. An incredible amount of data collection is enabled by a total lack of entitlements to privacy.

It will make it possible to make all sorts of decisions, including city planning decisions based on the real data of how much the residents in neighborhoods spend. (and what they spend it on) Also their health status and habit, friends, everything.

Sort of like China's "Social Credit" system if it was strictly based on profit and spending.

The real change has come about because of a new emphasis on profit, and a shift in the body of law (see Ronald Coase's 1960 paper, "The Problem of Social Cost," ) that says that breaking contracts of all kinds at all levels of society is okay if more money is made by breaking them than by keeping them, its 'more efficient'..

"Efficient". Remember that word.

Obviously this shift is music to the ears of the very wealthy, all around the world, after years of being told their behavior was immoral and antisocial, now its not only okay, its desirable for might to make right. That is basically what fascism said, with a modernized spin to it.

Because this obviously would reduce profits for people to know this was happening, the general populace has been kept ignorant of these changes- so people have not reduced spending or started saving every penny, thats more profitable!

In country after country, government is prohibited from doing anything that reduces profits, pretty much now. This includes the profits of foreign investors, or its supposed to. Illustrating how countries no longer matter, class does. The wealthy would rather help out other wealthy people, than help poor people anywhere.

So a justification can be found for basically anything.

The argument against limits on rent increases and arbitrary evictions is a market based one, that laws which limit rent increases for existing tenants prevent the building of lots of new market rate housing which would in theory lower costs for new people moving into a city.

In practice that rarely if ever happens, though.

The other side of the coin is that longterm tenants who have been reliable tenants and have paid the increases without complaint, become less and less desirable to keep compared to new tenants who might may not only the going rate, they also may pay fees, or even bribes which are non-refundable.

Tenants of bad landlords may often find themselves increasingly on the front lines of a war. They cant even offer to pay more money because thats forbidden by the laws. And moving into another apartment in the same city will require much more money plus an annual income customarily two or preferably three times the rent.

Some tenants may be able to pay that but long term tenants rarely are, also they tend to not understand the big picture because its been years since they had to look for a place to live.

Plus the government,federal, state and local governments are not supposed to build any new public housing. As far as replacing existing public housing. That may also be prohibited.

In the near future it likely depends on whether they have carved out that service sector in advance. (The text I got that from was an EU document, the EU claiming it was for 'transparency' published a single, exceedingly vague document which gives an outline of the changes. The US position is likely just as aggressive or more so but its not public. Australia is also involved. )

So what this means is that money is everything.

As within a period of a decade or even less, the 'going rate' likely soars/has soared.

What then happens is some (a minority) of landlords - depending on their intrinsic mean spiritedness or not, some landlords either totally stop maintaining buildings, or they start activities which are calculated to be 'legal' but which have the effect of driving the better situated existing tenants out.

Ive had the bad luck to be in that situation and I can tell you its total hell.

They might not burn a building down but they might stop maintaining critical systems which seriously impact the tenants, even things as important as a (often shared in older buildings) hydronic heating, fire alarms and sprinklers (common) and lighting in common areas. (or often they steal the electricity for it)

Even in areas where laws then require they stop collecting rent some period after citations issued by building departments are ignored, and notices given (even fining them if they ask for it) tenants are so terrified by the possibility of not ever being able to rent again that they pay anyway.

Even as the landlord is trying to drive them out!

If pipes freeze that will cause flooding which causes a major mold problem that if not immediately addressed makes a building virtually uninhabitable for its future, until its literally gutted and cleaned out. Roofs can literally be falling in on tenants. Still they pay rent.

Because- where are they going to go once blacklisted?

Another tactic is hiring 'work people' (often fake) to do 'renovations' that never end, and 'security guards" and even fake other tenants, to harass the inhabitants. They go to lengths to find the weak spot of somebody (for example, say somebody is sick, maybe they have AIDS, or asthma or RA, and are on drugs that leave them vulnerable to opportunistic infections, well, rent an apartment and fill it full of garbage and sick cats and have the litter boxes, overflowing and never cleaned, right next to them - where they share a balcony.

They exploit every possible weakness they can find.

Another tactic is to - as tenants who can move somewhere else, leave, rent the vacant units out on airbnb, to party groups, which makes it impossible for the other tenants who typically have jobs they must go to every day, having slept the night before, making it exceedingly hard to get sleep.

Another tactic is to barrage them with notices of various work which needs to be done, giving the minimum 24 hours notice, making it impossible for people to leave their apartment for any kind of extended period. (even as they make it hell.)

Imagine living in a nice multifamily building thats sold and suddenly apartment after apartment becomes short term rentals.

Housing in US cities like San Francisco and New York is extremely difficult to find. So difficult its increasingly common to find homeless working people. Or maybe they are not officially homeless but desperate enough to live in closets, garages and even camp out in backyards and on roofs.

There is a web site "the worst room" where you can see what your money might buy you in NY and SF now.

« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 09:19:43 pm by cdev »
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Online coppercone2

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #92 on: October 09, 2018, 08:16:02 pm »
those nail houses always impressed me.

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Offline cdev

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #93 on: October 09, 2018, 09:41:03 pm »
Sokoloff,

For the purpose of this discussion is the difference between "quadratic" and "exponential" growth that material?

Its an interesting comparison.

Suppose we just are discussing what matters to us, the knowledge which comes into the possession of ourselves, the world's population of human beings.

As more and more knowledge is being extracted from data by other means, a certain percentage of that knowledge now and likely more and more in the future will be collected and recorded in manners which make it difficult for us to fully understand it, or perhaps even understand it at all.

That possibility seems to me to illustrate what I meant about technology changing everything really well.

But unless one is directly involved with science (enough to have to deal with this speeding up in a visceral manner) you're far less likely to ever have thoughts about things like the rate of change and if it is accelerating exponentially or quadratically, and instead one likely bases life decisions on inherently flawed estimates of the rate of change in the future, flawed because they are based on one's own perception of the rate of change in the past.

Thats why politicians, economists, etc, again and again make horrible mistakes hugely underestimating the disruption caused by technology, the disruption it causes.

Back in the day, we used to joke that on the Internet everything happened in dog years.  In other words, seven times faster.

(That situation likely was the inspiration for the famous New Yorker cartoon.)  The Internet may not be the science where the biggest most earthshaking changes are happening any more, but its still changing the world very quickly, and not in a way thats likely to have a positive impact on employment.

Unrelated but important. The hype train and the cult of putting 'growth' and 'efficiency' for its own sake above everything else in a sort of race to the bottom on everything that matters to the people of the human race makes no sense to any smart person and indeed it is a Pied Piper leading us into (multiple) disasters.

At its core, its a bad model thats trying its best to obfuscate and steal the amazing gifts technology is giving us. Upon examining its core tenets, one sees that despite its hype, its not trying to facilitate progress, its actually trying to prevent and steal it.

Tooki, I agree with you - totally, but you have to understand, we're heading into uncharted territory now economically because of something important.

Exponential growth in knowledge and for that reason, uncertainty. Its a very good thing in almost all ways, or should be. But it would need democracy to be navigated successfully.

I doubt that the rate of knowledge increase is exponential. I can't see any mechanism that would be substantially higher than quadratic with time. (The world population is growing much closer to linearly - an R2 fit against a straight line of over 0.999, and knowledge acquisition is likely to be governed at the upper bound by some integration of previous knowledge and population.)

We need to start thinking about something important. Setting a good example for our offspring. Being good parents.

Treating others, no matter who or what they are, with respect in the way we ourselves would like to be treated.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 10:37:07 pm by cdev »
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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #94 on: October 09, 2018, 11:12:53 pm »
The melodrama seems to be getting high here.
This is a simple case of a commercial lease and a new owner wanting to end the lease once it's up. Nothing new here at all, happens all day every day in every city in the world.
Fran has a lease, and I doubt they can throw her out until the lease is up, subject to local laws.
It's the risk every company takes when they lease a place. And also the risk the owner takes in giving a lease (that usually includes extension "options"), in that they can't get it back until the lease expires.
 
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Offline edy

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #95 on: October 09, 2018, 11:21:29 pm »
I'm also surprised more places don't do what Canada did and tax the hell out of properties owned by non-resident foreign investors.

Believe it or not, the amount of foreign investment is small.... it is NOT the main reason for prices going up, at least not in Toronto. I don't think that's the case necessarily in Vancouver either, or any of the other major cities.

The main problem is low interest rates, lack of new developments and generally just immigration of mostly ethnic populations (now the MAJORITY in many large Canadian cities) who wish to move to the large cities where they find their communities (food needs, religious, social, language, etc).

I happen to be a minority as well, just not VISIBLE... who happens to live in Toronto also to be close to my community that shares the same needs (schooling, religion, food, social groups, etc). And many people I work with are VISIBLE minorities who also wish to stay close to their ethnic communities. There is a lack of housing, historically low interest rates, and demand/supply is skewed... hence the housing "bubble".

We blame it on the foreign investors but even with them taken out of the picture or taxed like crazy, there is still a huge problem. If you move out of the major cities into small-town Canadian white-majority population areas you will not see this kind of housing feeding frenzy, and you can buy a huge house with tons of land at prices that have barely moved up.

The destruction and renewal of building spaces in large cities is necessary to create more space vertically for condos or other types of tentants because location is key, and the urban sprawl cannot continue indefinitely as it creates even worse traffic, pollution and inefficiencies.

Also, there is a general thought that purchasing property is a means of savings so even if you are paying a huge amount, you figure that it will go up in value and you will eventually cash out when you down-size. So as long as interest is fairly low and you can afford to pay, you buy... even if it seems a crazy amount, because when you rent you will save up NOTHING and build absolutely no equity. And also the longer you wait to enter the market, the harder it will be..

So once again, foreign investors are just a scape-goat for problems caused by our own country that nobody wants to really dig deep and look at. Americans may be more thinking of "melting-pot" mentality so ethnic people will go almost anywhere as long as it is close to their job. But Canadians are used to more of a "patchwork quilt" and so the major cities are attracting and keeping more people because that is where their ethnic social fabric and family and needs are.

Remember... the FREE MARKET will eventually push people away to other smaller cities/communities that are more affordable as long as people are willing to do it, and can give up their ties or rebuild new ones. How bad does it have to be before you leave Toronto? You can ask the same about New Yorkers... they love living in NYC and cannot imagine leaving, even though it costs them more and adds more stress to their lives, they have a love/hate relationship with the city. I lived and commuted through NYC for a number of years and talked to many people about this.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 11:29:09 pm by edy »
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Offline thm_w

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #96 on: October 09, 2018, 11:23:12 pm »
Can Fran at least get some sensible compensation for evicting? Here in China after a few high-profile eviction dramas (those "nail tenants") the legislature actually passed laws criminalized those building cleaners and giving tremendous negotiation power. At least in Shanghai eviction for redevelopment usually leads to the tenant being given a new residence, often more than one if the tenant has kids or grandkids, and a lump sum of money as compensation.

Should Fran's situation happen here in Xuhui (kind of equivalent of Fran's current location in her city) she would get at least one apartment in the suburbs like Minhang (a bit far from he city center but close enough to the Metro lines) and close to US$1M in cash, and she is entitled to stay there until the redeveloper paid up.

I would never imagine when referencing renters rights, China would be used as a good example. Perhaps your information is correct in high-profile cases, as you say.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_evictions_in_China

Quote
Although forced evictions occur throughout China in both rural and urban environments, there are several notable examples in which hundreds of thousands of people were evicted. From 1993 to 2003, 2.5 million people were evicted in the city of Shanghai.[8] In preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, many of Beijing's densely populated neighborhoods were torn down in order to make way for new developments and infrastructure projects. The Center on Housing Rights and Evictions estimated that 1.5 million people in and around Beijing were forced from their homes, often with inadequate compensation. Chinese authorities maintained only 6,000 families were relocated, and that all received proper compensation.

https://www.ft.com/content/eac3c59e-41e5-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
https://www.victoria.ac.nz/law/research/publications/about-nzacl/publications/nzacl-yearbooks/yearbook-15,-2009/05-Feng1.pdf

Quote
Consequently, local  governments  ultimately  control  the  rules  for market appraisal as well as the bodies that carry out the market appraisals. Evictees have no rights of resistance and no right to petition. Naturally, the developers put pressure on local governments. In particular, the sale price of commodity houses usually includes all kinds of costs. The result is that the high price of newly developed  real  estate  is  much  more  than  the  compensation  fees  given  to  the evictees.
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Offline sokoloff

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #97 on: October 10, 2018, 12:44:01 am »
For the purpose of this discussion is the difference between "quadratic" and "exponential" growth that material?
When discussing or contemplating the pace at which society must adapt to any type of sustained change, the difference between "adapt at a linear rate" (the first differential of x2) and "adapt at an exponential rate" (the first differential of 2x) is massive, IMO.
 

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #98 on: October 10, 2018, 01:52:31 am »
Can Fran at least get some sensible compensation for evicting? Here in China after a few high-profile eviction dramas (those "nail tenants") the legislature actually passed laws criminalized those building cleaners and giving tremendous negotiation power. At least in Shanghai eviction for redevelopment usually leads to the tenant being given a new residence, often more than one if the tenant has kids or grandkids, and a lump sum of money as compensation.

Should Fran's situation happen here in Xuhui (kind of equivalent of Fran's current location in her city) she would get at least one apartment in the suburbs like Minhang (a bit far from he city center but close enough to the Metro lines) and close to US$1M in cash, and she is entitled to stay there until the redeveloper paid up.

I would never imagine when referencing renters rights, China would be used as a good example. Perhaps your information is correct in high-profile cases, as you say.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_evictions_in_China

Quote
Although forced evictions occur throughout China in both rural and urban environments, there are several notable examples in which hundreds of thousands of people were evicted. From 1993 to 2003, 2.5 million people were evicted in the city of Shanghai.[8] In preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, many of Beijing's densely populated neighborhoods were torn down in order to make way for new developments and infrastructure projects. The Center on Housing Rights and Evictions estimated that 1.5 million people in and around Beijing were forced from their homes, often with inadequate compensation. Chinese authorities maintained only 6,000 families were relocated, and that all received proper compensation.

https://www.ft.com/content/eac3c59e-41e5-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
https://www.victoria.ac.nz/law/research/publications/about-nzacl/publications/nzacl-yearbooks/yearbook-15,-2009/05-Feng1.pdf

Quote
Consequently, local  governments  ultimately  control  the  rules  for market appraisal as well as the bodies that carry out the market appraisals. Evictees have no rights of resistance and no right to petition. Naturally, the developers put pressure on local governments. In particular, the sale price of commodity houses usually includes all kinds of costs. The result is that the high price of newly developed  real  estate  is  much  more  than  the  compensation  fees  given  to  the evictees.
At least in Shanghai the local authorities is currently maintaining a stiff upper lip regarding evictions - the government can help you hanging out banners, but it is up to the developer to negotiate, and no force is allowed or face immediate criminal liability. As of renters protection most of the residents are renters but they get the same treatment as homeowners really, since there is a belief in China that people should not be stripped of their last roof over their head. Somehow from what I can see the new developer at Fran's place have no regard about this and is willing to force people into hoboism just so they can mark up a piece of land and get richer.
 

Offline langwadt

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Re: FranLab is getting evicted
« Reply #99 on: October 10, 2018, 01:59:09 am »
Can Fran at least get some sensible compensation for evicting? Here in China after a few high-profile eviction dramas (those "nail tenants") the legislature actually passed laws criminalized those building cleaners and giving tremendous negotiation power. At least in Shanghai eviction for redevelopment usually leads to the tenant being given a new residence, often more than one if the tenant has kids or grandkids, and a lump sum of money as compensation.

Should Fran's situation happen here in Xuhui (kind of equivalent of Fran's current location in her city) she would get at least one apartment in the suburbs like Minhang (a bit far from he city center but close enough to the Metro lines) and close to US$1M in cash, and she is entitled to stay there until the redeveloper paid up.

I would never imagine when referencing renters rights, China would be used as a good example. Perhaps your information is correct in high-profile cases, as you say.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_evictions_in_China

Quote
Although forced evictions occur throughout China in both rural and urban environments, there are several notable examples in which hundreds of thousands of people were evicted. From 1993 to 2003, 2.5 million people were evicted in the city of Shanghai.[8] In preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, many of Beijing's densely populated neighborhoods were torn down in order to make way for new developments and infrastructure projects. The Center on Housing Rights and Evictions estimated that 1.5 million people in and around Beijing were forced from their homes, often with inadequate compensation. Chinese authorities maintained only 6,000 families were relocated, and that all received proper compensation.

https://www.ft.com/content/eac3c59e-41e5-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
https://www.victoria.ac.nz/law/research/publications/about-nzacl/publications/nzacl-yearbooks/yearbook-15,-2009/05-Feng1.pdf

Quote
Consequently, local  governments  ultimately  control  the  rules  for market appraisal as well as the bodies that carry out the market appraisals. Evictees have no rights of resistance and no right to petition. Naturally, the developers put pressure on local governments. In particular, the sale price of commodity houses usually includes all kinds of costs. The result is that the high price of newly developed  real  estate  is  much  more  than  the  compensation  fees  given  to  the evictees.
At least in Shanghai the local authorities is currently maintaining a stiff upper lip regarding evictions - the government can help you hanging out banners, but it is up to the developer to negotiate, and no force is allowed or face immediate criminal liability. As of renters protection most of the residents are renters but they get the same treatment as homeowners really, since there is a belief in China that people should not be stripped of their last roof over their head. Somehow from what I can see the new developer at Fran's place have no regard about this and is willing to force people into hoboism just so they can mark up a piece of land and get richer.

does she live at her shop? the rules are usually quite different for homes and "professional"
 


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