While git is what the cool kids use, for someone with cvs experience you will suffer at the start with the different vcs model, so you may still want to consider svn. Mecurial tries to take the svn model and apply it in a dvcs fashion but seemed to me to fall between the two stools.
I don't understand why you think Mercurial is like the svn model. Mercurial is truly a DVCS with a local repo and push/pull fashion with cheap branching. For me git and Mercurial are on par with the DVCS model.
A few years ago for a IT contract as an architect, I choose Mercurial for VCS because it was way simpler to use, and developers were not accustomed with DVCS. Git as a lot of functions that few will use. The terms used for the commands are somewhat disturbing. The flow is more complicated (stash, commit). The number of users is way beyond git (1/10 I would guess).
But git has more users and most OS projects use it. It was built to manage the Linux kernel source, so it can manage very large repositories. Github is also a major reason to use git, not because of Github but because a lot of people use it and it facilitate the job when you contribute patches to an OS project. But to use it, I have to keep a git manual at hand to remember some functions I use only sometimes. You will also crash a least one time a repository because you will have wrongly used a dodgy command. I really don't like the CL UI.
I like Mercurial more than git because its flow and syntax is way more intuitive than git. And I like its code better as it is written in Python than in C for git, it give it a possibility for more extensions.
But if I would have to choose a DVCS for a company, I would go for git as it is really more widely used. Git has integrations in all the (not outdated) tools, like Subversion or CVS. When working with other people (contractants, open source contributors, ...), you are most likely to find people who already know git than mercurial.
Git is now the de-facto standard.
But in your case as you don't work with others, I would choose on :
- how much the tools you use have integrations with git
- how important is the community support for you, as Mercurial has less users