I'm happy to say I have been able to repair the fault! I removed the CD4013 (IC5) using the 'soldering iron & pry' technique, as I didn't want to have to unsolder the immediately adjacent on/off switch to allow the use of hot air. This was a mistake, as the chip was glued to the PCB
. Still, it eventually came off OK. I replaced it with a new part, and replaced R4 with a series combination of 100Ω and a BZX84C3V3 zener, which I happened to have in stock. Gradually winding up the supply voltage showed the Vdd supply still reached 18V with only 218VAC at the input - clearly the zener was not dropping enough volts at the very low operating current.
There is an unpopulated 0603 footprint 'R69' across the Vdd rail smoothing capacitor, so I fitted 3k3 in this position. This should give somewhere around the 5mA zener current required for correct operation. Vdd now measured 16.5V at 240VAC input - outside recommended working range, but well within the absolute maximum. Dissipation in R69 is comfortably less than its 0.1W rating. The set now draws approximately 1.0W from the mains supply in 'off' mode.
Unfortunately, it also draws about 1.7mA continuously from the batteries, when the mains lead is disconnected. Enough to completely drain them in about 12 months. As this is someone's 'kitchen radio', I doubt if it has
ever had a set of batteries installed, but I will provide a warning anyway.