PV energy less expensive than natural gas.

[DougSpindler]

All depends where you live if grid storage is cheaper.  It is certinaly far less hassle and initial costs is next to nothing.  In exchange you get reliability and it’s maitianence free.   

I live in California and you maybe you can tell me if grid stroarge is cost effective.  I am one a Time of Use rate plan.  For the plan I am on we can buy and cell kWhrs at $0.48 during peak hours which is M-F 0200-2300.  We can then buy those kWhrs back at the off-peak rate for $0.12 M-F 2300-0700 and on weekends.  Then we have another rate durning the day which is called partial-peak which is from 0700 to 0200 which is at $0.24.  If we overproduce during peak hours and buy back during off-peak there is nearly a 450% spread or advantage we have using the grid for storage. 

We are not on this rate plan, but our power company offers another one with peak-day rates where customers can buy/sell kWhrs for $0.78 and buy back at $0.12 which is nearly a 700% spread.  The only drawback is there is a yearly true-up.  Any excess kWhrs/energy credit dollars which are not “spent” in 12 months are then given to the power company for free.  The reason for this is it prevents one from using the profits from solar panels as a retirement plan.  Wouldn’t you like to get a 700% return on your money?

[electrodacus]

All depends where you live if grid storage is cheaper.  It is certinaly far less hassle and initial costs is next to nothing.  In exchange you get reliability and it’s maitianence free.   

I live in California and you maybe you can tell me if grid stroarge is cost effective.  I am one a Time of Use rate plan.  For the plan I am on we can buy and cell kWhrs at $0.48 during peak hours which is M-F 0200-2300.  We can then buy those kWhrs back at the off-peak rate for $0.12 M-F 2300-0700 and on weekends.  Then we have another rate durning the day which is called partial-peak which is from 0700 to 0200 which is at $0.24.  If we overproduce during peak hours and buy back during off-peak there is nearly a 450% spread or advantage we have using the grid for storage. 

We are not on this rate plan, but our power company offers another one with peak-day rates where customers can buy/sell kWhrs for $0.78 and buy back at $0.12 which is nearly a 700% spread.  The only drawback is there is a yearly true-up.  Any excess kWhrs/energy credit dollars which are not “spent” in 12 months are then given to the power company for free.  The reason for this is it prevents one from using the profits from solar panels as a retirement plan.  Wouldn’t you like to get a 700% return on your money?

For electricity only (not heating) with solar you have the choice between grid connected (grid used as storage) and storage in Lithium battery and in almost all cases grid storage will win as Lithium storage will be much more expensive.
When we talk about heating then storage can be done in thermal mass storage that cost as low as 1 cent/kWh so much lower than grid storage.

As for what your grid incentive's in California I will need to read again your replay and do a bit of google but if I understand this correctly this is not sustainable for the grid company and it may not have been this way 3 to 5 years ago and it may not be the case in 3 to 5 years from now.
If I understand you correctly you can have a zero bill for electricity while using plenty and have the grid as a free energy storage device and this makes no economic sense so it is not sustainable.

[f4eru]

For electricity only (not heating) with solar you have the choice between grid connected (grid used as storage) and storage in Lithium battery and in almost all cases grid storage will win as Lithium storage will be much more expensive.

That's today. Today, grid modulation costs less than batteries in 99% of the case(The 1% being the parte where the grid is buffered by massive batteries already today).
In 2-5 years, this ratio will have fallen to less than 50% of hte cases probably

When we talk about heating then storage can be done in thermal mass storage that cost as low as 1 cent/kWh so much lower than grid storage.

The point is not storage. The point is cost of generation. Today, with a PV + heat pump, it's cheaper in 99% of the cases than resistive + PV and than grid + heat pump.
In this case, you're the 1%, electrodacus

This increased voltage will pass trough the diodes (ideal diodes in this case ) and on the other side of the diode the voltage will be clamped even in worst case to below 60V by the array of TVS mentioned before.

I don't see any protection for the firs mosfets on the PV array. They will blow once a surge of the correct polarity will be applied. Please explain how you think this will survive a typical negative 8/20ms pulse of 4kV - 2kA on the PV1 connection.(typical values for appliances with outdoor cabling)

I have acess to surge/burst testing equipment, i'll be happy to test that for you if you send me a sample.
Always happy to smoke a few mosfets for improvement of stuff

[electrodacus]

That's today. Today, grid modulation costs less than batteries in 99% of the case(The 1% being the parte where the grid is buffered by massive batteries already today).
In 2-5 years, this ratio will have fallen to less than 50% of hte cases probably

As mentioned grid storage is more cost effective than battery storage in almost all case no argument there and never claimed anything other than that.
Can you send me an official link to where the feed in tariff for California or your particular location is shown. 

The point is not storage. The point is cost of generation. Today, with a PV + heat pump, it's cheaper in 99% of the cases than resistive + PV and than grid + heat pump.
In this case, you're the 1%, electrodacus

Today PV + resitive heat elements  has better cost than smaller PV array + heat pump.  Check one of my earlier answers related to the heat pump where I demonstrated the issue.
Heat pump can not be cost effective when input energy cost is very low.

For the plan I am on we can buy and cell kWhrs at $0.48 during peak hours which is M-F 0200-2300.
off-peak rate for $0.12 M-F 2300-0700 and on weekends. 
Then we have another rate durning the day which is called partial-peak which is from 0700 to 0200 which is at $0.24.
If we overproduce during peak hours and buy back during off-peak there is nearly a 450% spread or advantage we have using the grid for storage. 

Looking at those times
07:00 to 14:00  $0.24
14:00 to 23:00  $0.48
23:00 to 07:00  $0.12

This seems as a very bad deal for grid connected PV
Depending on time of year PV array will produce for a few hours during the day in winter like it is now sunrise may be around 7:00 and sunset around 17:00 and there will be a Gaussian type curve for production
Thus from 17:00 likely earlier until 23:00 you will pay a huge $0.48/kWh while it may be compensated by what you sold it is still a huge amount.
From my understanding if you install an oversized array (not sure if it is permitted or there are restriction to PV array size) you can at most reduced your bill to zero. Is that correct ?
If it is based on typical energy usage you will need to export quite a bit more than you can use in order to have that bill zero. Also is it truly zero or do you have some fixed cost associated with the grid connection?

If all people will have a grid connected PV array or even if is a significant percentage the grid company will be bankrupt unless all this is supported by the government incentives.
I do not fully understood your explanation as I never heard of anything similar anywhere in the world.   

[f4eru]

Heat pump can not be cost effective when input energy cost is very low.

Again, YMMV, especially with the DIY factor.
A 60m² install with groundwork and free standing  steel structure will cost much much much more to install profesionally than a 30m², even with a change of medium.

[electrodacus]

Heat pump can not be cost effective when input energy cost is very low.

Again, YMMV, especially with the DIY factor.
A 60m² install with groundwork and free standing  steel structure will cost much much much more to install profesionally than a 30m², even with a change of medium.

Not sure I understand what you try to say.

Yes my installation is DIY thus includes just equipment cost  but when you compare two systems and want to have this done by a company including labor then cost of labor may match the cost of equipment (labor cost can be extremely variable) but then the same will be the case for heat pump where labor will also match the equipment cost (just an example).
So ratio being the same since heatpump version has higher equipment cost it will also have a higher total installed cost.

[IanMacdonald]

Here anyway, the generation cost of electricity is about 5p per unit, but the retail cost to consumers is between 10 and 17p. In other words, the actual cost of the power is less than half of the total cost of getting it to the user.  A large part of the rest is in maintaining the cables, transformers and so on necessary to get the power to you. The problem which thus arises with allowing PV owners to 'use the Grid as a storage battery' is if they are getting retail rates in both directions. That simply isn't financially viable for the Grid operators, because it leaves nothing in the kitty for equipment maintenance.

The end result is that in order to cover maintenance the operators have to up their charges to all consumers. Thus, the ethics of such an arrangement become extremely questionable. It means that the savings made by having PV are partly money purloined from other consumers. Plus that's only viable if PV owners are a minority. If say 90% of houses had PV, then the other 10% would have to pay maybe ten times as much for their electricity to cover the maintenance costs of the Grid.

(In reality the supply companies would just shut-up shop before that stage was reached, because there would be no viable business model for them.)

Some places only pay the wholesale rate for feed-in, and that is viable for the Grid operators but the PV owners then complain that it doesn't cover their costs 

[electrodacus]

Here anyway, the generation cost of electricity is about 5p per unit, but the retail cost to consumers is between 10 and 17p. In other words, the actual cost of the power is less than half of the total cost of getting it to the user.  A large part of the rest is in maintaining the cables, transformers and so on necessary to get the power to you. The problem which thus arises with allowing PV owners to 'use the Grid as a storage battery' is if they are getting retail rates in both directions. That simply isn't financially viable for the Grid operators, because it leaves nothing in the kitty for equipment maintenance.

The end result is that in order to cover maintenance the operators have to up their charges to all consumers. Thus, the ethics of such an arrangement become extremely questionable. It means that the savings made by having PV are partly money purloined from other consumers. Plus that's only viable if PV owners are a minority. If say 90% of houses had PV, then the other 10% would have to pay maybe ten times as much for their electricity to cover the maintenance costs of the Grid.

(In reality the supply companies would just shut-up shop before that stage was reached, because there would be no viable business model for them.)

Some places only pay the wholesale rate for feed-in, and that is viable for the Grid operators but the PV owners then complain that it doesn't cover their costs 

Yes that is how it works normally but the 3 to 6 cent feed in tariff actually works and the owner gets is investment back but at no profit meaning the amortization period is 25 to 30 years and that is actually just fine but owners do not understand this and waste money in Lithium storage batteries that are a significant net loss for the owner.

The thing is that electricity production needed to be centralized as you can not have each house burning coal to produce is own electricity and thus it was more reasonable to produce this somewhere outside the city limits and then transport that to the user.
Now that solar PV is less than coal it is clean and distributed the grid losses + infrastructure cost amortization and maintenance will not make it economical.
My guess grid operators only have a few years left until some of them will no longer be profitable but this will depend on availability of low cost storage and people education on the subject (maybe).
Same will be true for natural gas.

While my costs are 17.5 cent/kWh for electricity and 4.2 cent/kWh for heating this is already lower than grid electricity and natural gas but it is a DIY installation and labor may double this numbers.
The thing is that PV panels and storage will continue to drop so there will be a point where this DIY numbers that I get will be available to anyone (maybe almost anyone).
For a new construction this is already profitable as the connection to the two utilities may be as much as the solar equipment cost.

My goal was to build an off grid house that has as close to zero ongoing costs as possible and I sure got there with energy but some other cost are harder to control. Here is a short list with annual costs

House:                                         $2500 (paid in advanced and only considered 30 years but should last much longer)
Energy (heating and electricity):  $500 (paid in advance for 30 years)
Internet/phone :                            $667 (cost can increase even more than inflation)
Water / sanitation:                        $200 (paid in advance not quite done so is an approximation again 30 years amortization)
automobile insurance:                  $719 (cost can increase)
automobile amortization:              $750 (used car and lucky almost no repairs excludes gasoline)
transportation fuel cost:                $480 (about 6000km/year mostly highway)

There are other costs but this are related to utilities. The transportation costs are almost $2000 and I can not wait for self driving car services as that should be less (hoping way less).
This is maybe a bit out of the subject of this thread but it shows where energy costs are in relation with the other spending's and for most they are much more significant. 

[DougSpindler]

All depends where you live if grid storage is cheaper.  It is certinaly far less hassle and initial costs is next to nothing.  In exchange you get reliability and it’s maitianence free.   

I live in California and you maybe you can tell me if grid stroarge is cost effective.  I am one a Time of Use rate plan.  For the plan I am on we can buy and cell kWhrs at $0.48 during peak hours which is M-F 0200-2300.  We can then buy those kWhrs back at the off-peak rate for $0.12 M-F 2300-0700 and on weekends.  Then we have another rate durning the day which is called partial-peak which is from 0700 to 0200 which is at $0.24.  If we overproduce during peak hours and buy back during off-peak there is nearly a 450% spread or advantage we have using the grid for storage. 

We are not on this rate plan, but our power company offers another one with peak-day rates where customers can buy/sell kWhrs for $0.78 and buy back at $0.12 which is nearly a 700% spread.  The only drawback is there is a yearly true-up.  Any excess kWhrs/energy credit dollars which are not “spent” in 12 months are then given to the power company for free.  The reason for this is it prevents one from using the profits from solar panels as a retirement plan.  Wouldn’t you like to get a 700% return on your money?

For electricity only (not heating) with solar you have the choice between grid connected (grid used as storage) and storage in Lithium battery and in almost all cases grid storage will win as Lithium storage will be much more expensive.
When we talk about heating then storage can be done in thermal mass storage that cost as low as 1 cent/kWh so much lower than grid storage.

As for what your grid incentive's in California I will need to read again your replay and do a bit of google but if I understand this correctly this is not sustainable for the grid company and it may not have been this way 3 to 5 years ago and it may not be the case in 3 to 5 years from now.
If I understand you correctly you can have a zero bill for electricity while using plenty and have the grid as a free energy storage device and this makes no economic sense so it is not sustainable.

Providing a link the rate plan I am on with PG&E.  Daily rates are at the bottom of page 1.
https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf

One has to pay a daily meter fee of $0.32 or $10.00 per month.  But then there's a Claimate Credit.  I think a tax code is easier to understand.

My wife came up with a perfect example to expain the power of Time of Use amd "energy credit dollars.  Say one has an electric car which needs 12 pannels to charge.  But if one sold the electricy to the power company during partial-peak hours at $0.26  and purcahsed the electricy back duing off-peak $0.12 one would need only 6 panels to charge the car.

But only 3 panles would be needed if one sold the electricty to the power compnay during peak hours, $0.48, and purchased it back duing off-peak $0.12.





 

[tautech]

One thing I don't think has been bought up is the cost of connection to the grid and as such hasn't been factored against the real cost of a PV installation from the savings from sometimes exorbitant Powerco connection fees.

Say you were to build where only HV passes your property, you'd be up for the cost of a distribution transformer plus if your were unlucky and had a lines company that only offered underground connections, further addition cost.

At least at this time (here in NZ) lines companies can't levy a charge if their services pass your door unlike the water and waste water ones do. 

[electrodacus]

Providing a link the rate plan I am on with PG&E.  Daily rates are at the bottom of page 1.
https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf

One has to pay a daily meter fee of $0.32 or $10.00 per month.  But then there's a Claimate Credit.  I think a tax code is easier to understand.

My wife came up with a perfect example to expain the power of Time of Use amd "energy credit dollars.  Say one has an electric car which needs 12 pannels to charge.  But if one sold the electricy to the power company during partial-peak hours at $0.26  and purcahsed the electricy back duing off-peak $0.12 one would need only 6 panels to charge the car.

But only 3 panles would be needed if one sold the electricty to the power compnay during peak hours, $0.48, and purchased it back duing off-peak $0.12.

I spend maybe almost half an hour on PG&E website and I was unable to find what the FIT is or how it is applied but if it is as you say and you are credited the exact same amount for exported energy as you will be charged for using energy from the grid and if you can balance the cost out all you have to pay is about $10/month ( $120 per year ) that means it allows you to use the grid as a free energy storage device.
This is not sustainable and explain's the very high prices as those that do not have solar installed pay for part of your bill.
Of course you made a substantial investment in PV array and grid tie inverters + labor and system connection fees that you need to amortize ideally in the period this type of program is valid.
I do not think that you have any warranty that thing will not change as if any significant number of households have grid connected solar the grid will become unstable and they will need to add large storage solutions that will be costly.
Based on all other FIT schemes I heard abut this seems the most unsustainable.

The cost to normal consumer seems extremely high with that peak of $0.48/kWh.
Moving to solar it will make sense that peak charge will be at night and during the day when is sunny energy cost should be very low. 

[cdev]

When the price of electricity rises due to export of natural gas (1 or 2 more years till the capcity starts coming on line, also after signing of TTIP, or some other trade deal, CETA may qualify in Canada) At that point rates will probably rise gradually. But I really think they are very unlikely to pay people that higher rate for solar generated electricity. Because it could eventually be a real lot more.

Hard to say, though. If lots of people have PV systems, demand may fall enough to offset it for them, at least in sunny areas.

Just pray that none of the Icelandic or Yellowstone supervolcanoes erupt, like they do from time to time.

[electrodacus]

When the price of electricity rises due to export of natural gas (1 or 2 more years till the capcity starts coming on line, also after signing of TTIP, or some other trade deal, CETA may qualify in Canada) At that point rates will probably rise gradually. But I really think they are very unlikely to pay people that higher rate for solar generated electricity. Because it could eventually be a real lot more.

Hard to say, though. If lots of people have PV systems, demand may fall enough to offset it for them, at least in sunny areas.

Just pray that none of the Icelandic or Yellowstone supervolcanoes erupt, like they do from time to time.

The very low price on natural gas is thanks to the new methods of extraction "fracking" and even with that low cost I can do better with PV (just because is DIY) as Natural gas is slightly more expensive than 4.2cent/kW I pay for my heating and electricity is about the same here as I pay 17.5cent/kWh but in some places is is way higher than what I pay and it should not be as may cost is mainly because of the LiFePO4 storage. Even if a business installs this prices should not double as they will be able to get all the equipment in higher volume than I did and get some profit margins from that also.

[cdev]

Many claim its too expensive to get this last bit of LNG out profitably as long as they use the domestic workforce to extract it.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/96242/shale-gas-bubble-combined.pdf

[DougSpindler]

Providing a link the rate plan I am on with PG&E.  Daily rates are at the bottom of page 1.
https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf

One has to pay a daily meter fee of $0.32 or $10.00 per month.  But then there's a Claimate Credit.  I think a tax code is easier to understand.

My wife came up with a perfect example to expain the power of Time of Use amd "energy credit dollars.  Say one has an electric car which needs 12 pannels to charge.  But if one sold the electricy to the power company during partial-peak hours at $0.26  and purcahsed the electricy back duing off-peak $0.12 one would need only 6 panels to charge the car.

But only 3 panles would be needed if one sold the electricty to the power compnay during peak hours, $0.48, and purchased it back duing off-peak $0.12.

I spend maybe almost half an hour on PG&E website and I was unable to find what the FIT is or how it is applied but if it is as you say and you are credited the exact same amount for exported energy as you will be charged for using energy from the grid and if you can balance the cost out all you have to pay is about $10/month ( $120 per year ) that means it allows you to use the grid as a free energy storage device.
This is not sustainable and explain's the very high prices as those that do not have solar installed pay for part of your bill.
Of course you made a substantial investment in PV array and grid tie inverters + labor and system connection fees that you need to amortize ideally in the period this type of program is valid.
I do not think that you have any warranty that thing will not change as if any significant number of households have grid connected solar the grid will become unstable and they will need to add large storage solutions that will be costly.
Based on all other FIT schemes I heard abut this seems the most unsustainable.

The cost to normal consumer seems extremely high with that peak of $0.48/kWh.
Moving to solar it will make sense that peak charge will be at night and during the day when is sunny energy cost should be very low.

PG&E doen’t make it easy,  do they.  You need to read the other document which is refeenrced in the rate plan document which is called NEM 2.0.  The NEM document essentially says PG&E will pay fair market rate fo the electricity based on the rate plan you are on less non-bypassable charges which is just under $0.02 kWhr.  So instead of paying/crediting my account at $0.48 during peak, they pay $0.46.  The non-bypassable charges are fees we pay to decommission nuclear power plants, power line loss/maintainance, etc. 

Not sure why peak would ever been in the middle of the night, that’s when PG&E has the lowest demand.  Peak is during the day when business are open and people are running their air conditioners. 

PG&E doen’t limit production to solar either.  If you look at the rate plan agreement it states generation can come from solar, wind, biomass and I think geothermal as well.

Most of the solar companies are adding on a battery pack or two.  All I can say is they are complete idiots or very bright commissioned sales people.  They want me to charge the batteries during the day during peak hours. So instead of selling the electricity to PG&E at $0.45 they want me to chage the batteries.  All of you should realize just how stupid that is. 

What I really should be doing is charging the batteries when PG&E is selling the electricity during off-peak hours for $0.12 and selling it back to PG&E during peak hours for $0.45.  This way PG&E is using my home for storage and I can make a 375% profit.

[electrodacus]

Many claim its too expensive to get this last bit of LNG out profitably as long as they use the domestic workforce to extract it.
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/96242/shale-gas-bubble-combined.pdf

That seems like an old document you can check the historic price from Saskenergy that is my local supplier and you can see price right now is the lowest in the past 18 years in fact so low that is almost free if you do not consider the monthly charge and delivery charge that has steadily increased for the past few years. The peak price around 2008 was almost 3x higher than it is now so price volatility for natural gas is very high and no long therm predictions can be made.
Even with this record low price my solar PV heating is still cost effective (and this is ignoring connection fees as those alone will be more than my entire solar setup even if natural gas pipe crosses my land).

Most of the solar companies are adding on a battery pack or two.  All I can say is they are complete idiots or very bright commissioned sales people.  They want me to charge the batteries during the day during peak hours. So instead of selling the electricity to PG&E at $0.45 they want me to chage the batteries.  All of you should realize just how stupid that is. 

What I really should be doing is charging the batteries when PG&E is selling the electricity during off-peak hours for $0.12 and selling it back to PG&E during peak hours for $0.45.  This way PG&E is using my home for storage and I can make a 375% profit.

As mentioned a Tesla PowerWall II has a cost amortization around $0.55/kWh to this you add the $0.12 if you charge from grid at night so what you get out of the battery (ignoring efficiency here) will cost you $0.67/kWh and then you will sell that at a loss at $0.45 thus no profit but a substantial loss.
Not to mention that as far as I know PG&E has very strange tariffs and incentives for solar compared to the rest of the world that pays way less for solar energy that you export as it should be logical if they want to stay in business at least a bit more.
The thing is that $0.48/kWh is huge and most people do not have solar so they have to pay this high rates during the peak hours.
So while adding a battery storage to a grid connected house is bad business it is still a big business since people do not understand the real cost (cost amortization for those batteries).

[cdev]

This study examines the economic impact of natural gas export and price rises. Consensus is that natural gas and electricity prices will rise a lot due to its export - because the demand in Asia is substantial.

http://www.crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/CRA_LNG_Study.pdf

[DougSpindler]

Many claim its too expensive to get this last bit of LNG out profitably as long as they use the domestic workforce to extract it.
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/96242/shale-gas-bubble-combined.pdf

That seems like an old document you can check the historic price from Saskenergy that is my local supplier and you can see price right now is the lowest in the past 18 years in fact so low that is almost free if you do not consider the monthly charge and delivery charge that has steadily increased for the past few years. The peak price around 2008 was almost 3x higher than it is now so price volatility for natural gas is very high and no long therm predictions can be made.
Even with this record low price my solar PV heating is still cost effective (and this is ignoring connection fees as those alone will be more than my entire solar setup even if natural gas pipe crosses my land).

Most of the solar companies are adding on a battery pack or two.  All I can say is they are complete idiots or very bright commissioned sales people.  They want me to charge the batteries during the day during peak hours. So instead of selling the electricity to PG&E at $0.45 they want me to chage the batteries.  All of you should realize just how stupid that is. 

What I really should be doing is charging the batteries when PG&E is selling the electricity during off-peak hours for $0.12 and selling it back to PG&E during peak hours for $0.45.  This way PG&E is using my home for storage and I can make a 375% profit.

As mentioned a Tesla PowerWall II has a cost amortization around $0.55/kWh to this you add the $0.12 if you charge from grid at night so what you get out of the battery (ignoring efficiency here) will cost you $0.67/kWh and then you will sell that at a loss at $0.45 thus no profit but a substantial loss.
Not to mention that as far as I know PG&E has very strange tariffs and incentives for solar compared to the rest of the world that pays way less for solar energy that you export as it should be logical if they want to stay in business at least a bit more.
The thing is that $0.48/kWh is huge and most people do not have solar so they have to pay this high rates during the peak hours.
So while adding a battery storage to a grid connected house is bad business it is still a big business since people do not understand the real cost (cost amortization for those batteries).

Thank you for your reply.  I've been trying to understand with the amortized cost for a PowerWall/battery pack is.  Crazy expensive.  The sales commissions on these things must be pretty good as well.  As many of the solar sales "experts" are saying it's something you will want with your solar panels. 


Can't figure out who is the better liar.  Used car sales people or people selling solar solutions for people's homes.

[electrodacus]

Thank you for your reply.  I've been trying to understand with the amortized cost for a PowerWall/battery pack is.  Crazy expensive.  The sales commissions on these things must be pretty good as well.  As many of the solar sales "experts" are saying it's something you will want with your solar panels. 

Can't figure out who is the better liar.  Used car sales people or people selling solar solutions for people's homes.

Tesla PowerWall needs to be installed by Tesla or Tesla authorized installers the PowerWall is 5900 now + some accessories needed + installation cost is around $8500 to $16000 (not sure why the large variation) but I will use a round $10000 number for the installed PowerWall
In average people that have this installed use an average daily energy of around 3 to 5kWh (this is what the get out in an average day as they need to put in about 10% more to cover the efficiency).
Warranty is 10 years and they guarantee 70% of original capacity by this time so basically a dead battery after warranty is over as battery degrades both with time so called calendar aging 1 to 2% per year and with cycle.
So total energy stored over lifetime 3650 days x 5kWh = 18250kWh
$10000 / 18250kWh = $0.55/kWh
Not very complex calculation still people do not quite understand the cost amortization concept over the estimated life of the product. Most think something like OK I just spend $10k now on a powerwall and then I can store energy for free on the next 10 years but this is completely irrelevant.
Or for solar PV panels people think they save a certain amount of $ each month because they added solar and in 5 years or so they recover the investment and from that point on energy generated is free.
I do not like looking at amortization in this way but in cost per unit of energy over the expected life of the product and with solar PV panels at around $0.8/Watt and life expectancy of at least 25 to 30 years assuming you can use all the energy available at my particular location will be around 2 cent/kWh and this is a more meaningful number for me and allows me to directly compare this with other sources of energy.

[DougSpindler]

Thank you for your reply.  I've been trying to understand with the amortized cost for a PowerWall/battery pack is.  Crazy expensive.  The sales commissions on these things must be pretty good as well.  As many of the solar sales "experts" are saying it's something you will want with your solar panels. 

Can't figure out who is the better liar.  Used car sales people or people selling solar solutions for people's homes.

Tesla PowerWall needs to be installed by Tesla or Tesla authorized installers the PowerWall is 5900 now + some accessories needed + installation cost is around $8500 to $16000 (not sure why the large variation) but I will use a round $10000 number for the installed PowerWall
In average people that have this installed use an average daily energy of around 3 to 5kWh (this is what the get out in an average day as they need to put in about 10% more to cover the efficiency).
Warranty is 10 years and they guarantee 70% of original capacity by this time so basically a dead battery after warranty is over as battery degrades both with time so called calendar aging 1 to 2% per year and with cycle.
So total energy stored over lifetime 3650 days x 5kWh = 18250kWh
$10000 / 18250kWh = $0.55/kWh
Not very complex calculation still people do not quite understand the cost amortization concept over the estimated life of the product. Most think something like OK I just spend $10k now on a powerwall and then I can store energy for free on the next 10 years but this is completely irrelevant.
Or for solar PV panels people think they save a certain amount of $ each month because they added solar and in 5 years or so they recover the investment and from that point on energy generated is free.
I do not like looking at amortization in this way but in cost per unit of energy over the expected life of the product and with solar PV panels at around $0.8/Watt and life expectancy of at least 25 to 30 years assuming you can use all the energy available at my particular location will be around 2 cent/kWh and this is a more meaningful number for me and allows me to directly compare this with other sources of energy.

Very nice explanation. 
Thank you.

The wild car in all of this is for grid tied customers is how much will the power company charge and when?  It is my understanding PG&E is the first power company to implement residential TOU billing.  We have 9 different TOU rate plans to choose from.  Other power companies across the US are following PG&E’s lead,  Is just a few years just about all of the power companies will have TOU billing.  TOU rates can greatly favor the customer or can cost a fortune.....  all depends on when you used the electricity and what the power company is charging.

[cdev]

If one lives in CA, somebody's location can make a dramatic difference in how much sun they get too. At least near the coast it does. Also as one goes northward the number of overcast days increases a lot.  Also, each section of Calif. coast has a slightly different water temperature profile so the fog vs sun ratio changes noticeably at that point. This can be seen well on space imaging. Compared to farther south, the water along the pacific coast of CA usually gets colder quite fast as you go north, (except in El Nino years) North of Big Sur/Monterey the weather gets markedly foggier, at Pt. Arena the weather makes another transition to even more overcast and the overcast skies increase again north of Cape Mendocino. Also as you go inland once you crest the Coast Range the eastern slope of the mountains are sunny, with some areas even often bathed in sunshine due to being in a fog shadow. The micro climates vary a lot from one hill or valley to the next.

[NiHaoMike]

In my experience, it's very easy to net a savings on a California variable rate plan since the peak times are when most people are at work.

[DougSpindler]

In my experience, it's very easy to net a savings on a California variable rate plan since the peak times are when most people are at work.

Exactly - But none of the solar design experts know how to properly design a system for people on TOU.  They design based on kWhr useage and don’t have a clue about how to design for a TOU customer where rates change throughout the day.

[NiHaoMike]

Exactly - But none of the solar design experts know how to properly design a system for people on TOU.  They design based on kWhr useage and don’t have a clue about how to design for a TOU customer where rates change throughout the day.

Doesn't that require hoping that the schedule doesn't change for the 25 years or so a solar power system is rated to last?

[electrodacus]

The wild car in all of this is for grid tied customers is how much will the power company charge and when?  It is my understanding PG&E is the first power company to implement residential TOU billing.  We have 9 different TOU rate plans to choose from.  Other power companies across the US are following PG&E’s lead,  Is just a few years just about all of the power companies will have TOU billing.  TOU rates can greatly favor the customer or can cost a fortune.....  all depends on when you used the electricity and what the power company is charging.

I find the PG&E very expensive no matter what option you select. For example SaskPower here was charging me around 0.12CAD at any time of day that is less than night time rate at PG&E and yes there are additional taxes and connection fees but when I was rating an apartment in Regina a few years ago my bill for 200kWh/month was 50CAD so if you add everything that is 0.2CAD / kWh still way better and about the same with what I have now offgrid 0.175USD/kWh
The reason the electricity I use for heating costs me just 0.042USD is that I use a thermal mass storage device instead of Lithium battery as that is the main reason for the higher electricity cost for appliances.
So when you can use the grid as an energy storage device (in any condition even if they do not pay anything for your export) a simple grid connected solar PV is very economical but adding any sort of Lithium battery storage will be a big financial loss. The thing is that some combine the large gains provided by the solar PV with the huge losses of the Lithium battery and that in some cases may make things even or less bad than when you just look at the battery alone.
So for me is clear that adding a Lithium battery to a grid connected system will never be cost effective in fact it will be just an investment guaranteed to generate a significant loss.