Author Topic: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.  (Read 36132 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #125 on: November 17, 2018, 09:04:47 pm »
Exactly - But none of the solar design experts know how to properly design a system for people on TOU.  They design based on kWhr useage and don’t have a clue about how to design for a TOU customer where rates change throughout the day.
Doesn't that require hoping that the schedule doesn't change for the 25 years or so a solar power system is rated to last?

You are correct.  TOU billing is new as are EV rates.  We know PG&E will increase rates but will that be for off-peak as well as peak and partial-peak?  I don’t think so.  As PG&E raises peak and partial-peak rates this is a windfall for TOU coustomers who can consume most of their power at off-peak hours. 

The other wild card is that PG&E has so much electricity from solar during peak hours they don’t have ciustomers for it.  But at the same time if solar production decreases they have to be ready to provide power.  This is an experiament in progress.

The only reason solar “works” in California is because the power companies have to buy the power from residential customers.  Nevada was doing the same thing, but their politicians put an end to it and all of the solar companies closed shop in the state.

I think we need to wait 5, 10, 20 years to see how this solar experiment is going to turn out.
 

Offline cdev

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #126 on: November 17, 2018, 09:12:12 pm »
Didn't Enron do this exact same thing to Californians just a few years ago?
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #127 on: November 17, 2018, 10:18:01 pm »
Didn't Enron do this exact same thing to Californians just a few years ago?

No. Enron purcahases Portland Gas Electric, PGE, not Pacific Gas and Electric, PG&E.  As I recall Enron was a Ponzi scheme.
 

Offline cdev

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #128 on: November 17, 2018, 11:05:07 pm »
Here is a Guardian story about the Enron Tapes.

They were extorting money out of the state which had entered into a scheme to allow them to buy and sell electricity based on peak demand. They manipulated the numbers and made a huge amount of money - and it turned out that the issues the state's ratepayers were being manipulated over were manufactured by them, i.e. fictitious.

Electricity is essential for commerce. Should it be privatized? No. Cities that have maintained utilities as public often have much lower rates and more reliable service.

This kind of thing is what happens when you let crooked lawmakers privatize everything.

(A similar disaster occurred with public transit, with National City Lines. But thats another story.)

This is just the first paragraph of the article on the California electricity crisis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis
Quote
Chronology[1][2][3]
1996    California begins to modify controls on its energy market and takes measures ostensibly to increase competition.
September 23, 1996    The Electric Utility Industry Restructuring Act (Assembly Bill 1890) becomes law.[4]
April 1998    Spot market for energy begins operation.
May 2000    Significant rise in energy prices.
June 14, 2000    Blackouts affect 97,000 customers in San Francisco Bay area during a heat wave.
August 2000    San Diego Gas & Electric Company files a complaint alleging manipulation of the markets.
January 17–18, 2001    Blackouts affect several hundred thousand customers.
January 17, 2001    Governor Davis declares a state of emergency.
March 19–20, 2001    Blackouts affect 1.5 million customers.
April 2001    Pacific Gas & Electric Co. files for bankruptcy.
May 7–8, 2001    Blackouts affect upwards of 167,000 customers.
September 2001    Energy prices normalize.
December 2001    Following the bankruptcy of Enron, it is alleged that energy prices were manipulated by Enron.
February 2002    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission begins investigation of Enron's involvement.
Winter 2002    The Enron Tapes scandal begins to surface.
November 13, 2003    Governor Davis ends the state of emergency.

The California electricity crisis, also known as the Western U.S. Energy Crisis of 2000 and 2001, was a situation in which the U.S. state of California had a shortage of electricity supply caused by market manipulations, and capped retail electricity prices.[5] The state suffered from multiple large-scale blackouts, one of the state's largest energy companies collapsed, and the economic fall-out greatly harmed Governor Gray Davis' standing.

Drought, delays in approval of new power plants,[5]:109 and market manipulation decreased supply.[citation needed] This caused an 800% increase in wholesale prices from April 2000 to December 2000.[6]:1 In addition, rolling blackouts adversely affected many businesses dependent upon a reliable supply of electricity, and inconvenienced a large number of retail consumers.

California had an installed generating capacity of 45 GW. At the time of the blackouts, demand was 28 GW. A demand supply gap was created by energy companies, mainly Enron, to create an artificial shortage. Energy traders took power plants offline for maintenance in days of peak demand to increase the price.[7][8] Traders were thus able to sell power at premium prices, sometimes up to a factor of 20 times its normal value. Because the state government had a cap on retail electricity charges, this market manipulation squeezed the industry's revenue margins, causing the bankruptcy of Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and near bankruptcy of Southern California Edison in early 2001.[6]:2-3

The financial crisis was possible because of partial deregulation legislation instituted in 1996 by the California Legislature (AB 1890) and Governor Pete Wilson. Enron took advantage of this deregulation and was involved in economic withholding and inflated price bidding in California's spot markets.[9]

The crisis cost between US$40 to $45 billion.[6]:3-4
Contents

    1 Causes
        1.1 Market manipulation
        1.2 Effects of partial deregulation
        1.3 Government price caps
        1.4 New regulations
        1.5 Supply and demand
    2 Some key events
    3 Consequences of wholesale price rises on the retail market
    4 Involvement of Enron
    5 Handling of the crisis
        5.1 Governor Gray Davis
        5.2 Arnold Schwarzenegger
        5.3 National Energy Development Task Force
        5.4 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    6 See also
    7 References
    8 External links

Causes
Market manipulation

As the FERC report concluded, market manipulation was only possible as a result of the complex market design produced by the process of partial deregulation. Manipulation strategies were known to energy traders under names such as "Fat Boy", "Death Star", "Forney Perpetual Loop", "Ricochet", "Ping Pong", "Black Widow", "Big Foot", "Red Congo", "Cong Catcher" and "Get Shorty".[10] Some of these have been extensively investigated and described in reports.

Megawatt laundering is the term, analogous to money laundering, coined to describe the process of obscuring the true origins of specific quantities of electricity being sold on the energy market. The California energy market allowed for energy companies to charge higher prices for electricity produced out-of-state. It was therefore advantageous to make it appear that electricity was being generated somewhere other than California.[citation needed]

Overscheduling is a term used in describing the manipulation of capacity available for the transportation of electricity along power lines. Power lines have a defined maximum load. Lines must be booked (or scheduled) in advance for transporting bought-and-sold quantities of electricity. "Overscheduling" means a deliberate reservation of more line usage than is actually required and can create the appearance that the power lines are congested. Overscheduling was one of the building blocks of a number of scams. For example, the Death Star group of scams played on the market rules which required the state to pay "congestion fees" to alleviate congestion on major power lines. "Congestion fees" were a variety of financial incentives aimed at ensuring power providers solved the congestion problem. But in the Death Star scenario, the congestion was entirely illusory and the congestion fees would therefore simply increase profits.[citation needed]

In a letter sent from David Fabian to Senator Boxer in 2002, it was alleged that:

    "There is a single connection between northern and southern California's power grids. I heard that Enron traders purposely overbooked that line, then caused others to need it. Next, by California's free-market rules, Enron was allowed to price-gouge at will."[11]


And so on.

The short version is that Enron was a professional energy scam company, a company that were major insiders in Washington and the state capitals.

(not by any means the only one)

They were able to bilk the state's taxpayers out of a lot of money.

This was immortalized in recordings of their conversations.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2018, 11:18:56 pm by cdev »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #129 on: November 18, 2018, 01:58:16 am »
This is only the tip of the iceberg with PG&E and energy scams.  You are missing one key ingrediant when it comes to the Enron scam, deregulation.  In the US in the 1960s we there was a push for deregulation.  Happened witht the phone company (AT&T), airlines, financial/banking and real estate.  (See a pattern here?  With deregulation comes major scams and swindles).  Enron was able to do what they were able to do because of deregulation.  Once deregulation came along PG&E could no longer profit from the sale of electricity to residential customers.  They are making there money off the production and transmission of electricity

And don’t think there aren’t scams with solar.  Many PG&E customers were forced by local city politicians to buy there electricity from MCE https://www.mcecleanenergy.org which is through PG&E.  (Sounds like Enron scam all over again.). I’ve tried to find out more about MCE, but their web site is vague. I’ve tried calling them a couple of times, but people who answer the phone just smile and say thank you for calling MCE.

Sure would like to understand or figure out what MCE is all about.  If someone knows, please post.

 

Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #130 on: November 18, 2018, 02:21:57 am »
Just made a post on my google+ about energy generated today and also for the past 85 days since DMPPT450 started to be used for house heating.

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #131 on: November 18, 2018, 03:06:33 am »
On the topic of energy companies ripping off customers just because they can, when I was in college (Texas A&M College Station), there's a crazy $40/month service charge for electricity. That was when solar panels and batteries were considerably more expensive than they are now. I have no idea what it's like nowadays, but if it's the same or higher, it would actually be viable to buy a bunch of Nissan Leaf battery modules and take them on campus to recharge. The grocery store is within walking distance so little to no need for refrigeration (a good quality cooler filled with ice works for that), there's no need to stay for the hottest days of the year unless you're taking summer classes, and a camping stove works nicely for cooking. Hot water is provided from the CHP plant in the area and winters are mild (rarely goes below 50F) so just keep some clothes and blankets handy. What's left are some LED lights and personal electronics, which use little power and are trivial to run from batteries.
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Offline cdev

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #132 on: November 18, 2018, 03:14:08 am »
Deregulation is there in order so that all services or resources of all kinds (defined as everything you cannot drop on your foot) could be commoditized under trade agreements, taking them out of the realm of things governments can touch.

Thats both deregulation and reregulation, but in forums where people do not exist and there is no democracy.

Organizations like the WTO pay lip service to democracy but the fact is they all are profoundly intentionally undemocratic. They were created to limit democracy to shambolic, non-economic things, and increasingly arbitral bodies where governments only exist there to be sued by corporations.

Of all service sectors, energy has been the one most subjected to ISDS arbitral bodies up until now, with governments almost always losing, so you can expect lots more.

Sometimes what is happening is cryptic and basically hidden messaging.:

http://www.iatp.org/blog/201602/obama-undermines-climate-efforts-in-solar-trade-dispute

What is happening is a global second enclosure in response to the shift towards automation.

Along with the loss of jobs comes loss of power, and the norms before the industrial revolution are re-asserting themselves. Except in a world without jobs, it will be much harder for people than it was under feudalism, when the elite still needed the labor of the peasantry.

Second enclosure is really a good way of framing it. The powerful are all in a hidden alliance, one that is disguised as various agreements, and phony disputes, with division and conquest the goal. They are united by a shared contempt for democracy, taxation and egalitarianism of any kind. They want to lock down and sell off, and in many cases, export the resources, until they're gone. To whomever pays the most, not people who need it the most. Think gold rush or land grab. The global corporate state that is emerging wants to expropriate everything of value before people realize whats going on. So of course, they frame any attempt by humanity to assert any right of any kind via government as "indirect expropriation"

What were once public services become 'services of general interest' and must be sold or a situation is 'trade distorting'. If its sold anywhere in a country or if a government is in competition with any provider of a like service it must be commercialized. This is why we cant have good healthcare and why social security is slated to become another crappy investment. They systematically barred and made impossible the entire New Deal behind the country's back. We just never got the memo.

NAFTA was the first negative list FTA and many of the newer ones are based on it, but services are in many ways the most ugly in its implications. That all began Jan 1, 1995 with the WTO. WTO is opt in (we opted in in many more areas than many others) the more recent US style 'agreements' countries must opt out. (This is called 'negative list')

Also 'standstill' applies in many areas locking in the autonomous level of regulation at the start. (Jan 1, 1995)

Newer regulations in those areas can be challenged and rolled back to their state on that date. Also countries that are joining the WTO may have to give up services that dont comply with WTO rules (basically ones where governments help people) Unless that service sector is totally free in a country, and non-commercial, and has been since that date. Healthcare in Canada would pass that test, thanks to a smart Canadian NGO that informed their government, but most other countries, including some that pride themselves on having healthcare for all, would not.

Thats to prevent the reversion of privatizations (corporations get entitlements to certainty, people get uncertainty)

Services and regulation are framed as takings. So is creation or prologation (they all are supposed to eventually go away, that is the desired end state, totally privatized everything) of any new state owned monopolies. Corporations get a right to sell services that trumps any national or subfederal entity laws. Under the new system, nation states are disempowered like Ulysses, tied to the mast so the Sirens of the electorate cannot influence policy, and public services are framed as a theft of opportunity from entitled corporation.



There is a ratchet so regulations can only be eliminated, and once lost they cannot be reestablished. Especially in service sectors like financial services, and energy.



Of course they are hiding this because its also basically millions of jobs - all the jobs where money is currently being "wasted" on wages above global norms are on the table. If national laws stand in the way, they will be attacked in the WTO and countries may well lose, especially if they have made committments to 'open' them. Newer US style negative list agreements include everything by default that isnt excluded in advance in writing.

Services, everything that cant be dropped on feet, becomes international trade and all regulations in those areas must be not more burdensome than necessary to ensure the quality of the service, and no more.

All those jobs, even areas like education, energy, healthcare, water, prisons, every area where any tax money is spent, becomes an internationally tradable service, if its not on the table now it soon will be, and is auctioned off to the lowest bidder (preferably in a developing country we want to prop up) therefore made irreversible and untouchable, so this ends up being hyper-regulation.

Did we Americans get the memo? I never did. Different countries have varying levels of awareness. The key fact though is that its happening just as the world needs public services more, because so many jobs will be going away in the coming years, so many that the number of jobs put into play by these agreements will likely be much smaller than they had expected.

Roughly 80% of all business is in services, so basically this shift is going to be like a super-NAFTA for the rest of the jobs. They have been working on it for more than 20 years and its almost done.

Yes, it may throw large numbers of people, (a princeton economist estimated 26% but his estimate was returned to in another study by two people at Harvard and they concluded 40% were offshorable. (Many of these jobs will be offshored with some workers here and some overseas) But it was immediately obvious to me that a lot of their assumptions were over optimistic, as they left out entire targeted service sectors - for example, they by and large excluded the public sector, which is clearly the #1 target down perhaps to the state and municipal level.

Also, what escapes the shift now will likely be on the table in two or four years, either via the WTO's "single undertaking" or in plurilateral, bilateral or regional trade agreements.

But the biggest organization - is the WTO and at the bi-annual WTO Ministerial conferences, they return to the table every two years and there is pressure from the big countries like the US to put more and more on the table.

Huge agreements like TISA are intended to be folded into the WTO at some point in the future (perhaps when wages have fallen far enough in the expensive countries to make it easier to create common markets similar to the one in the EU, but larger, and with movement of natural persons restricted to intra-corporate transfers by corporations, not individuals)



Other countries are under a lot of pressure to be like us.

These shifts are intended to eventually basically impact everybody everywhere (all around the world) especially in all quasi public service jobs, including teachers, grad students, everybody in research who gets grant money, every job that is a bit less corporate. The public job as we know it will go away, except for those who make up the governments themselves, we will see the end of the stable public job, the end of respected professions, and everybody's labor will be seen as a commodity, a standardized input, an interchangeable part in a machine, with licenses and advanced degrees all accepted everywhere in the intra-corporate transferee context, and equivalent, this will push smaller businesses out, think global chains, even in areas now thought of as private. Much like what has been done in the Middle East with the "kafala" system of corporate sponsoirship (much like indentured servitude). others will end up having to compete with global corporations that pay almost nothing that get an entitlement to win whenever public money is involved, and to do an end run around the whole 20th century as far as regulation. Countries will have to change their laws if they don't comply. Or face huge sanctions. (entities like the WTO cant reach in and change national alws directly, just sanction them things worth billions of dollars until they do)

Basically, it will be a great time to be rich and wading in cash.

Not so good for everybody else. People will be on their own and without money, they will be non-entities in a way that people were not under democracy in the pre-WTO era.

You are missing one key ingrediant when it comes to the Enron scam, deregulation.  In the US in the 1960s we there was a push for deregulation.  Happened witht the phone company (AT&T), airlines, financial/banking and real estate.  (See a pattern here?  With deregulation comes major scams and swindles). 
« Last Edit: November 18, 2018, 04:26:34 am by cdev »
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Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #133 on: November 19, 2018, 07:02:45 am »
All those jobs, even areas like education, energy, healthcare, water, prisons, every area where any tax money is spent, becomes an internationally tradable service, if its not on the table now it soon will be, and is auctioned off to the lowest bidder (preferably in a developing country we want to prop up) therefore made irreversible and untouchable, so this ends up being hyper-regulation.

Did we Americans get the memo? I never did. Different countries have varying levels of awareness. The key fact though is that its happening just as the world needs public services more, because so many jobs will be going away in the coming years, so many that the number of jobs put into play by these agreements will likely be much smaller than they had expected.

That was long rant and not sure I understood what was all about.

A single 250W PV panel produces as much (more) energy in an average day as any fit person can convert in to mechanical energy 2000kcal is around 2.3kWh and most of that is used to keep our body temperature at 37C (100F)
That panel costs $150 and can produce energy for the next 30+ year's just needs to be exposed to sunlight.
I think is fairly clear no person in any country can compete with this not even close.

Up to fairly recent people had the intelligence so it could adapt (learn) fast to do different tasks. Artificial intelligence + simple automation can already replace almost any Job and the only reason there are still human jobs today has to do with the slow rate people can adopt new technologies.

People should be free to do things that they enjoy as machines + low cost energy should be able to provide all our basic necessities.

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #134 on: November 19, 2018, 02:21:09 pm »
A single 250W PV panel produces as much (more) energy in an average day as any fit person can convert in to mechanical energy 2000kcal is around 2.3kWh and most of that is used to keep our body temperature at 37C (100F)
That panel costs $150 and can produce energy for the next 30+ year's just needs to be exposed to sunlight.
I think is fairly clear no person in any country can compete with this not even close.
A 250W (or even 100W) solar panel is not very portable, hence why I have proposed the idea of making pedal generators portable and affordable in order to make them practical power supplies for portable electronics. It would not only be a big breakthrough for mobile computing but also help slow the increase in obesity a bit.
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Offline Nusa

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #135 on: November 19, 2018, 02:40:25 pm »
Actually, there's room for a fair amount of PV panels on top of motorhomes. It's often done by those that like to camp with no services. But it's usually only enough for maintenance charging. Generators or the main engine still have to be used for heavy loads like air conditioning.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #136 on: November 19, 2018, 04:31:29 pm »
A single 250W PV panel produces as much (more) energy in an average day as any fit person can convert in to mechanical energy 2000kcal is around 2.3kWh and most of that is used to keep our body temperature at 37C (100F)
That panel costs $150 and can produce energy for the next 30+ year's just needs to be exposed to sunlight.
I think is fairly clear no person in any country can compete with this not even close.

People should be free to do things that they enjoy as machines + low cost energy should be able to provide all our basic necessities.

If I recall correctly the amount of energy in a barrel of gasoline, 55 gallons is equilivnet to the wok 10 slaves could do in a year. 
 
Sounds like a promoting a deceleration of independence.  What was to become the United States did that buy using force and violence.  Are you proposing the same thing?
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 04:42:11 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline cdev

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #137 on: November 19, 2018, 05:07:40 pm »
Electrodacus, we need to be aware that some corporation may have bought the rights to an energy monopoly in an area. That might translate in some brain-dead countries to their making off-grid power illegal!

This is because they have sworn to 'support' trade in services in all measures of any kind.

What is a 'measure' 'affecting trade in services' ?  Almost anything!

 For example, this explains how that is defined with regard to what we used to call public services.

Especially if many people start doing it, under the bizarre new priorities of trade agreements, some ISDS suit wary governments  might define off-grid use as evading the law in some way. I think they tried to do this in Spain.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 05:13:51 pm by cdev »
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Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #138 on: November 19, 2018, 06:43:28 pm »
A 250W (or even 100W) solar panel is not very portable, hence why I have proposed the idea of making pedal generators portable and affordable in order to make them practical power supplies for portable electronics. It would not only be a big breakthrough for mobile computing but also help slow the increase in obesity a bit.

Not sure if this was sarcasm or not :)  Most people will not be capable to sustain a few hours at 100W so a 100W panel will produce more in an average day than a person could by using a pedal generator and the pedal generator will likely cost more than a 100W PV panel. PV panel cost amortization is around 2 cent/kWh and so a 100W panel will produce in an average day 0.5kWh same as a person after a few hours of pedal generator workout so they will produce the equivalent of 1 cent after a hard day of work.

Actually, there's room for a fair amount of PV panels on top of motorhomes. It's often done by those that like to camp with no services. But it's usually only enough for maintenance charging. Generators or the main engine still have to be used for heavy loads like air conditioning.

Not true with Lithium maybe true with Lead Acid as those are fairly useless.  Here one small motorhome that uses the SBMS60 a 12V 360Ah and 1200W of PV panels and is doing electric cooking and even air conditioning and fridge



If I recall correctly the amount of energy in a barrel of gasoline, 55 gallons is equilivnet to the wok 10 slaves could do in a year. 
Sounds like a promoting a deceleration of independence.  What was to become the United States did that buy using force and violence.  Are you proposing the same thing?

Gasoline displaced all the horse work (99.9%) so there are way less horses today as they are not needed for transportation.
How do you define independence ?
99% of people work in one or more jobs not for fun but in order to pay for the basic needs like food and shelter (is that independence?).

55 gallons (~208 liters) of gasoline has about 1900kWh of energy if you can use all of that. A typical passenger car will be just under 20% efficient so in that case just around 380kWh usable energy.

Electrodacus, we need to be aware that some corporation may have bought the rights to an energy monopoly in an area. That might translate in some brain-dead countries to their making off-grid power illegal!
This is because they have sworn to 'support' trade in services in all measures of any kind.
What is a 'measure' 'affecting trade in services' ?  Almost anything!
 For example, this explains how that is defined with regard to what we used to call public services.
Especially if many people start doing it, under the bizarre new priorities of trade agreements, some ISDS suit wary governments  might define off-grid use as evading the law in some way. I think they tried to do this in Spain.
 

I never heard of off-grid energy production to be made illegal anywhere and not sure what sort of reason's anyone can give for that.
In any case this is well out of my area of expertise so I can not do a relevant comment.
And yes most jobs are in trade and services as manufacturing is already fully automated (for most part) and trade and services are next with the big advances in AI over the last few years.
Things will need to change in a dramatic way but I do not have any Idea how it will be done or even what will be the best solution.

Offline cdev

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #139 on: November 19, 2018, 07:20:49 pm »
I don't know if this is the best link on this story:
https://www.quora.com/Has-Spain-really-banned-private-solar-panels

--------------

Speaking generally - Governments are very worried about many jobs going away for good. Which is the greatest challenge the human race has ever faced. Who is going to pay for everything? What are we going to do to organize this transition?

Its an open question to many people but governments have already committed to capitalism, which is basically a cult of competition and evaluation.  Under it, people have no intrinsic rights except ones that involve their money. Its money that buys rights to free speech, it seems now. Also, instead of rights to affordable healthcare, water and education, corporations got rights to sell all essentials without government competition, if even one entity sells that thing in a country.

So, people in the UK may have to contend with sales of clean air in the future, as due to its being bottled and sold there, GATS makes it illegal for the government to help people who cant afford it, except in the least trade restrictive way.

And of course the same rules apply to lots of other things too, even things people have taken for granted. 

(And on aspect of the plot of Terry Gilliam's dystopian movie "Brazil" I am sad to say, can never come to pass. Thats not a joke although it sounds like one.)

So, they are trying to cut costs, using competition. Unfortunately in ways which will mean people will make less and pay more. Much more, but governments will be freed of moral hazard and the responsibilities of managing people. Thats why the privatization started. Governments everywhere are washing their hands of the obligations they took on in the last century to protect people from capitalism's extremes. Now they work for the corporations. Not the people. People don't realize this yet.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 07:34:19 pm by cdev »
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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #140 on: November 19, 2018, 08:21:52 pm »
Speaking generally - Governments are very worried about many jobs going away for good. Which is the greatest challenge the human race has ever faced. Who is going to pay for everything? What are we going to do to organize this transition?

I think this is getting a bit off-topic, but you're still raising an interesting concern here.

Yes we all know many jobs are going away progressively due to many factors including automation, technological changes, societal changes, etc.
The way states are currently working to feed themselves and redistribute wealth will have to change drastically. The current trend in most countries is to lower taxes for companies (in the name of competitivity and the 'employment blackmail') and increase them for individuals. As less and less individuals will have jobs, even if we assume that the overall economy allows to support them, governments will inevitably have to raise company taxation, up to a point that may end up in a global crash.

Fun days ahead. :box:
 

Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #141 on: November 19, 2018, 09:01:04 pm »
I don't know if this is the best link on this story:
https://www.quora.com/Has-Spain-really-banned-private-solar-panels

That is already an old story and also misinterpreted.

That tax was abolished Link

The tax was not for off grid (true off grid) but grid connected houses that decided to store the energy instead of donating the excess to grid and also applied to PV installation of more than 10kW (twice what a average Spanish home needed to cover the energy usage)

Bellow a quote from that article:
Quote
The tax on the sun, as Spain’s royal decree (RD) 900/2015 was commonly known, was actually a complex set of tolls and charges applied to grid-connected behind-the-meter distributed generation and storage assets, ostensibly to prevent renewables from overloading the grid.
RD 900/2015 only applied to systems of 10 kilowatts or above, which is more than twice the average power rating of the average Spanish home.

Speaking generally - Governments are very worried about many jobs going away for good. Which is the greatest challenge the human race has ever faced. Who is going to pay for everything? What are we going to do to organize this transition?

I think this is getting a bit off-topic, but you're still raising an interesting concern here.

The way states are currently working to feed themselves and redistribute wealth will have to change drastically.

Yes states will soon need to find better way to redistribute wealth. The problem is not that there is not enough wealth is just that is badly distributed so it is not an problem that can not be fixed.

The subject of this tread is PV energy as the most cost effective form of energy generation (that will continue to drop) and it is a positive thing.
I also think low cost clean energy + AI taking over all jobs is also a good thing it just requires drastic changes in the way current system is setup. 

Offline Red Squirrel

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #142 on: November 19, 2018, 09:30:01 pm »
Actually, there's room for a fair amount of PV panels on top of motorhomes. It's often done by those that like to camp with no services. But it's usually only enough for maintenance charging. Generators or the main engine still have to be used for heavy loads like air conditioning.

Maybe I play too much KSP but I always thought it would be cool to have a retractable panel on a RV.  When you park the RV would have legs like on cranes to add more stability, then the panels would unfold kinda like the ISS.  Maybe not as big, but could have them maybe triple the size of the roof by overhanging both sides.  Would double as an awning to keep the RV area shaded to sit under.  You would probably generate enough to run AC, fridge etc at that point, since in summer there's lot of sun light and long days. 


 

Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #143 on: November 19, 2018, 09:45:29 pm »
Maybe I play too much KSP but I always thought it would be cool to have a retractable panel on a RV.  When you park the RV would have legs like on cranes to add more stability, then the panels would unfold kinda like the ISS.  Maybe not as big, but could have them maybe triple the size of the roof by overhanging both sides.  Would double as an awning to keep the RV area shaded to sit under.  You would probably generate enough to run AC, fridge etc at that point, since in summer there's lot of sun light and long days.

That is how it is done on that DIY RV thing that I posted a video of earlier but here you can see that in the first seconds of this video. He uses my SBMS60 (older model) a 360Ah 12v LiFePO4 battery and 8x 36 cell panels around 1400W when all are fully extended or half if not extended.


For the first few years when I moved offgrid all my house electricity was provided by a 720W PV array a 2.5kWh LiFePO4 battery (100Ah 24V LiFePO4) and I was using an average of 60kWh/month sufficient for my small fridge + LED lights + computers and quite a bit of electric cooking.
Now since I feel like wasting energy when I use 120kWh/month (electricity only so excludes heating).

Offline Red Squirrel

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #144 on: November 19, 2018, 10:01:02 pm »
That's actually pretty awesome.

So can those big LiFePO4 battery cells actually be bought prebuilt?  There was a Chinese site posted earlier but didn't see an actual way to buy.   I always had the impression if you want to use lithium ion or LiFePO4 or similar tech you had to find a source of 18650s and similar cells and then tack weld them yourself.   Trying to source out legit 18650's can be a challenge as the market is saturated with fakes. 
 

Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #145 on: November 19, 2018, 10:16:54 pm »
That's actually pretty awesome.

So can those big LiFePO4 battery cells actually be bought prebuilt?  There was a Chinese site posted earlier but didn't see an actual way to buy.   I always had the impression if you want to use lithium ion or LiFePO4 or similar tech you had to find a source of 18650s and similar cells and then tack weld them yourself.   Trying to source out legit 18650's can be a challenge as the market is saturated with fakes.

LiFePO4 is usually sod as large prismatic cells so there is nothing for you to do other than connect the cells using screws on the terminals.  LiFePO4 is way more cost effective (in therms of cost amortization ) for energy storage applications and also way more safer as they do not have thermal runaway.
In US there are a few stores that sell those cells but in Canada is more difficult to find. The guy in the video is in Canada and he got 180Ah CALB cells that are good but Winston will be better tho you will need to import them from China or maybe US.
Why will you need energy storage ? If you are grid connected and want that as grid storage then that is not economical so I do not recommend that.

Offline Red Squirrel

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #146 on: November 19, 2018, 10:39:15 pm »
Was just curious, though if I had room for an off grid array I would go off grid.  Way cheaper in the long run.  Just being connected to the grid costs $100/mo give or take whether or not you're using power so you'd need to be generating enough excess that you can store and sell and that's assuming you even can sell.  These programs come and go all the time.  Right now I don't think they have such program here. But who knows in a few months. It's very inconsistent.   

I don't have enough room though for off grid, but the idea of LiFePO4 cells for a UPS sounds interesting.    I have a small 400w solar system for my shed but for that case a cheap Canadian Tire lead acid battery was easier to get and cheaper.  Probably upgrade that to 2 or 4 golf cart batteries down the line.  I need to build a heated battery box as right now in the -20's the single 80ah battery is not enough even just to keep the inverter going.  Eventual goal is to have actual outside lighting.    Ideally I want to try to keep the battery at 0C but I don't know how realistic that is.  Of course I could put it in the house, but I want this to actually be a full off grid like setup, kinda acts as a test to see how viable it is here even with the really short days.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 10:44:43 pm by Red Squirrel »
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #147 on: November 19, 2018, 10:48:08 pm »
Yep. LiFePo cells are easy.
Screw the links, and one big fuse, install a BMS and charger, give some margin on charge and discharge, done for good.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 10:50:24 pm by f4eru »
 

Offline electrodacusTopic starter

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #148 on: November 19, 2018, 11:04:23 pm »
Was just curious, though if I had room for an off grid array I would go off grid.  Way cheaper in the long run.  Just being connected to the grid costs $100/mo give or take whether or not you're using power so you'd need to be generating enough excess that you can store and sell and that's assuming you even can sell.  These programs come and go all the time.  Right now I don't think they have such program. But who knows in a few months. It's very inconsistent.   

I don't have enough room though for off grid, but the idea of LiFePO4 cells for a UPS sounds interesting.    I have a small 400w system for my shed but for that case a cheap Canadian Tire lead acid battery was easier to get and cheaper.  Probably upgrade that to 2 or 4 golf cart batteries down the line.  I need to build a heated battery box as right now in the -20's the single 80ah battery is not enough even just to keep the inverter going.  Eventual goal is to have actual outside lighting.    Ideally I want to try to keep the battery at 0C but I don't know how realistic that is.  Of course I could put it in the house, but I want this to actually be a full off grid like setup, kinda acts as a test to see how viable it is here even with the really short days.

There is no need to test stuff as you can easily calculate what you can get from a certain system depending on location PVWatts is a great tool for that and fairly accurate.
Where exactly is that $100/month ? It seems extreme as when I had grid 5 to 6 years ago in Regina Saskatchewan I was using 200kWh/month in average (almost half for water distiller) and some for the incandescent lights on the common areas as it was an apartment building and for that my bill was 50CAD around half was for the actual usage 200kWh and half was taxes and fixed costs so maybe minimum was around 20CAD if I will have not used anything.

It is true that incentives for solar connected PV change over time but even if they do not pay anything for excess the amount you use directly from a grid connected PV array is at a fairly low cost to you and way better than adding battery storage.
An UPS type storage that is used when grid is down is only useful (still not cost effective) if you have frequent blackouts (not typical in most places).
Small or large system is very relative :) as mentioned I was happy with a 720W PV array for a few years. As for inverters they are a bad idea for smaller systems as for example my 720W + 2.5kWh battery system allowed me to use 60kWh/month in average but a lot of that was used directly as DC since my house is wired for 24V DC thus LED lights, computer's and fridge all work directly from DC and inverter is only used (powered ON) as needed in average 1 to 2h per day and that alone makes for a substantial saving as my inverter uses around 30W idle so my saving for keeping that off for 22h per day is 30W x 22h x 30 days = 19.8kWh/month and that is about 33% of my total usage so sure a bad idea or it will have required to increase the PV array and battery by 30% for the luxury of having the inverter always ON (no benefit).
Even now that I have way more energy and I can easily leave the inverter always ON I do not do that as it makes no sense and there are no advantages.
My LiFePO4 is inside the house and that is the best place for it to be as it prefers the same range of temperatures as humans so around +20C

Offline ahbushnell

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Re: PV energy less expensive than natural gas.
« Reply #149 on: November 20, 2018, 01:37:26 am »
A single 250W PV panel produces as much (more) energy in an average day as any fit person can convert in to mechanical energy 2000kcal is around 2.3kWh and most of that is used to keep our body temperature at 37C (100F)
That panel costs $150 and can produce energy for the next 30+ year's just needs to be exposed to sunlight.
I think is fairly clear no person in any country can compete with this not even close.
Ya and you can use it for transportation.  :)
A 250W (or even 100W) solar panel is not very portable, hence why I have proposed the idea of making pedal generators portable and affordable in order to make them practical power supplies for portable electronics. It would not only be a big breakthrough for mobile computing but also help slow the increase in obesity a bit.
 


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