When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[ebastler]

nobody wants to have to drive the same car for 20 years in order to amortize it.

You don't need to. The falling price means that today it's amortized in a few years.

I don't follow your logic here. The fact that the prices on electric cars have started to fall, and will most likely continue to fall, rather deters me from buying one right now. If you buy an electric car now, you will probably never be able to sell it a price that makes economic sense.

And by the time the battery is worn out, the car companies will probably have adjusted their pricing to make it more economic to buy an entirely new car, than to replace the battery...

[mtdoc]

If you buy an electric car now, you will probably never be able to sell it a price that makes economic sense.

That is true for any new car you buy.  It is no different for EVs or PHEVs - which is easily confirmed by checking used prices.

It's a ridiculous standard that some seem to want to hold EVs to - that they need to make some sort of "economic sense" that is not true for other new auto purchases, computer purchases, test equipment purchases, etc, etc....

[nctnico]

nobody wants to have to drive the same car for 20 years in order to amortize it.

You don't need to. The falling price means that today it's amortized in a few years.

Keep on dreaming. With mass produced products the price is mainly driven by the cost of materials and their processing. Ergo the heavier something is, the more it will cost to make and the more it will cost to buy. EVs with their batteries will be heavier compared to ICE cars for at least another 20 years (due to needing more capacity to get reasonable range) so they will also stay more expensive during that time.

[ebastler]

If you buy an electric car now, you will probably never be able to sell it a price that makes economic sense.

That is true for any new car you buy.  It is no different for EVs or PHEVs - which is easily confirmed by checking used prices.

It's a ridiculous standard that some seem to want to hold EVs to - that they need to make some sort of "economic sense" that is not true for other new auto purchases, computer purchases, test equipment purchases, etc, etc....

Of course all cars begin to losing value quickly as soon as you start to drive them. You pay a surcharge for getting to chose and configure your new car, which you will not recover when selling it.

But you did get the bit about the falling prices for new electrical vehicles, did you? That will exacerbate the situation when you try to sell a used EV in a few years. I am not aware of a similar trend for gasoline-powered cars. Buying an electrical car now still makes you an early adopter, with the financial implications that usually has.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

mtdoc: it's the fanboys that keep harping on the many savings of buying an EV.

[mtdoc]

But you did get the bit about the falling prices for new electrical vehicles, did you? That will exacerbate the situation when you try to sell a used EV in a few years. I am not aware of a similar trend for gasoline-powered cars. Buying an electrical car now still makes you an early adopter, with the financial implications that usually has.

Not really true. Perhaps it was 5 years ago. Many of the EVs and PHEVs currently for sale in the US are not overpriced relative to similarly equipped and performing ICE cars.

What is happening is that cheaper EVs are becoming available as EVs are starting to be built or are planned to be built to compete with the bare bones equipped, poor performing but inexpensive ICEs.

Currently in the US, if you make enough money to claim the $7500 tax credit, you may actually pay less for an EV or PHEV than for a similarly equipped and performing ICE auto.

And that is not accounting for the large savings in operating costs that you will begin to accrue once you take ownership.

[nctnico]

Define similar performing... range? refill time? life span of key components?

[mtdoc]

Define similar performing...

Acceleration, handling, comfort, ride, etc.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Yeah, poor performing: every time an EV does the Pikes Peak, receives a sophisticated "pre-cooling treatment":



...and then overheats 

[mtdoc]

BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms, the overall price trend for all new cars is down.

[ebastler]

BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms, the overall price trend for all new cars is down.

17% down in the course of 27 years. That's a 0.6% reduction per year, on average. I wonder what that number looks like for electric cars? 

[wraper]

Yeah, poor performing: every time an EV does the Pikes Peak, receives a sophisticated "pre-cooling treatment":

So poor that EV left all ICV eating dirt at Pikes Peak.

[nctnico]

Define similar performing...

Acceleration, handling, comfort, ride, etc.

It is not like you need an EV for comfort and ride quality. Accelleration may be fun for a while but with my current car I already get comments I pull up to quick and there really is nothing special about the engine. Getting from A to B for lowest cost and least hassle is most important to me.

[ebastler]

BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms, the overall price trend for all new cars is down.

17% down in the course of 27 years. That's a 0.6% reduction per year, on average. I wonder what that number looks like for electric cars? 

Hey, and look at the small print in the text that accompanies your chart. (See your link.) Those data on "car" prices exclude "trucks", which are considered a separate category. And it seems that many customers who would have bought bought a high-end car in the 1990's will now buy a high-end truck. So the apparent reduction of car prices is actually down to a change of model mix. Truck prices have gone up, by 7%, in that same timeframe.

[mtdoc]

Hey, and look at the small print in the text that accompanies your chart. (See your link.) Those data on "car" prices exclude "trucks", which are considered a separate category. And it seems that many customers who would have bought bought a high-end car in the 1990's will now buy a high-end truck. So the apparent reduction of car prices is actually down to a change of model mix. Truck prices have gone up, by 7%, in that same timeframe.

Nope. Read the accompanying article:

The figure below shows that, in real dollars, the average price for a car “out the door” (what people actually pay, including rebates and fees) is 16% lower today than in the early 1990s.

The fact that it excludes trucks is irrelevant. We're talking about cars not trucks.  There are not any EV or PHEV trucks to compare to.


2 first hand, specific, concrete examples of what I am talking about:

4 years ago I paid (after tax rebate) $25K for my 2014 Volt. I would have at the time paid at least that amount for any car with equivalent performance, comfort, ride, etc.

Last November, we bought a Chrysler Pacifica PHEV for my wife.  Cost after rebate $40K.  Plus we did not pay sales tax on the first $32K thanks to a recently passed law.  The equivalently equipped ICE only Pacifica would have cost about $44K

[coppice]

BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms, the overall price trend for all new cars is down.

To anyone outside the US those figures probably look bogus, and I recently found why. US figures for "cars" are basically only for sedans, hatchbacks and estate cars, Since 1998 the market for large "cars" has moved massively to SUVs, and these are counted in a separate category. The average price a US family is paying for its vehicles has not declined. The average price for cars has declined because far more large expensive sedan sales have migrated to the SUV category than small cheap sedans. Sedan sales are in such a poor state in the US that Ford recently decided to kill all sedan product lines in North America.

[ebastler]

To anyone outside the US those figures probably look bogus, and I recently found why. US figures for "cars" are basically only for sedans, hatchbacks and estate cars, Since 1998 the market for large "cars" has moved massively to SUVs, and these are counted in a separate category. The average price a US family is paying for its vehicles has not declined. The average price for cars has declined because far more large expensive sedan sales have migrated to the SUV category than small cheap sedans. Sedan sales are in such a poor state in the US that Ford recently decided to kill all sedan product lines in North America.

Thank you, coppice. That's exactly what I tried to explain above. But as you can see, mtdoc has elected to deny/misunderstand/ignore this.

[mtdoc]

The average price for cars has declined because far more large expensive sedan sales have migrated to the SUV category than small cheap sedans.

Again, that is not what the linked article says. They break out truck and fleet sales in a different graph  The graph I posted is only reflecting what people have been paying for cars in that time frame.
Here is the full quote:

For cars alone, prices have been on a downward trajectory since 1998, well before the recession or the increase in fuel economy requirements. The claim by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers that car prices have increased by 60% since the 1990s just doesn’t hold up — unless you ignore inflation and prevalent consumer incentives offered by automakers. The figure below shows that, in real dollars, the average price for a car “out the door” (what people actually pay, including rebates and fees) is 16% lower today than in the early 1990s.

In any case that is a peripheral issue and not at all central to the argument that EV prices in the US are now comparable to pure ICE cars.

Sedan sales are in such a poor state in the US that Ford recently decided to kill all sedan product lines in North America.

That is true for Ford only- whose US sedans are crap. No one wants them.   They do make the No 1 selling pickup truck which accounts for almost all of their sales.  Americans and our pick up trucks..  

If you want to compare prices paid for trucks in the US to EVs on a what makes "economic sense" basis,  then EVs win hands down.  Lots of people driving around in $50-70K  pick up trucks who have no need for the truck functions.

[boffin]

I know from my own experience that the Ford Focus is comparable to a Golf. They live in the same segment and the ICE based versions of the Golf cost about the same compared to the Ford Focus in Canada according to the same website. I'm not stupid! BTW I choose the Ford Focus as an example because I know it is available with an extremely efficient 1 litre engine.

I'm not sure where you get your facts from, but pretty much everything you said above is incorrect.

A well equipped [Titanium] Focus hatch is about C$27500 here; very comparable to a new [Trendline] Golf, and the focus is not as well built as a Golf; and certainly don't hold their value as well. 

Lastly the 1.0l engine is not available in North America. So you're "knowing" that an engine is available, when it isn't certainly casts doubt on any other claims you're making.

[nctnico]

The 1.0l engine was listed in the price list for Canada I found. Built quality is arguable and also depends on where that cars are built. In the EU the Ford Focus is built in Germany and some in the UK. The 'made in Germany' ones are definitely better.

[SiliconWizard]

The manufacturing cost of EVs will likely decrease if they are mass-produced, although maybe not that drastically - the cost of producing conventional cars has indeed decreased, but not by that much, in decades.

The sale price is yet another matter. Currently, EVs benefit from government financial incentives in a lot of countries. Remove those incentives and you'll look at the prices a bit differently, even if the manufacturing cost decreases.

And there's still the issue of the batteries, currently being 30% percent of the overall cost or over, and having only a few years lifespan. Not sure their cost will really plummet, unless of course we find a technological breakthrough. So they are a problem for the intrinsic value of the car and tie you to the manufacturer, at least until batteries become standard, which is going to be pretty hard to achieve for years to come, since currently batteries are a significant factor of competition between the manufacturers of EVs.

[wraper]

And there's still the issue of the batteries, currently being 30% percent of the overall cost or over, and having only a few years lifespan.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/

The trend line currently suggests that the average battery pack could cycle through over 300,000 km (186,000) before coming close to 90% capacity.

[f4eru]

And there's still the issue of the batteries, ...... Not sure their cost will really plummet, unless of course we find a technological breakthrough.

Nope.




And that is without factoring in possible big technological breakthroughs

[nctnico]

Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Battery over provisioning FTW... (or how to make a li-ion batt last "forever")