When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[SiliconWizard]

Nice forecasts but still just forecasts - I'm not sure the price drop is sustainable with the current constraints. There are still many unknowns such as the ability to meet a much increased demand and the supply of lithium under this increased demand.

As some analysts have pointed out, the demand is still rather low on batteries for EVs, actually helping to keep prices down. An increased demand would lead to cost cuts due to the scale effect, but also would lead to higher prices due to the increased demand, especially if we have a hard time meeting this demand, which is a likely scenario. So the overall outcome is hard to predict IMO. I'm not saying those pretty graphs will not turn into reality, I'm just saying that I'm still a bit cautious about the mid- and long-term outcome because of the unknowns.

As for the performance of Tesla's batteries, it's impressive. Some quick figures: let's take a (realistic?) average of 400 km on a full charge, 300 000 km equates to 750 full charge cycles. 90% remaining capacity at 750 cycles, that's in the ballpark of *very* good Li-ion batteries, but under the constraints of an EV (temperature and high currents), that's even exceptional.

[DougSpindler]

We can all talk about this and debate it forever and then there is the truth.  This is an experiment in which we are the lab rats.  The car manufactures, and the government are the scientists making little tweaks here and there to see what happens.  Just as rats have certain personalities so do people.  Some will never try and EV and make fun of everyone who drives one and point out all of the flaws.

And then there are some of us who have purchased EV who are very pleased and will never purchase an ICE ever again.

But those are the rats who are in the minority.  Most of the lab rats are like me.  I had my doubts on buying an EV.  But we needed a new car.  The female lab rat in my colony convinced this rat to buy one.  After one night of extreme pleasure I was weak, and the female of my species used this moment weakness to seduce me into signing a contract for an EV. 

It took me about a month the admit an EV is a much better car than an ICE.  We are now looking for another new car for the member of our colony with XY chromosomes and I’ve got to tell you I’m not even considering buying an ICE.

I have considered purchasing a Tesla, but I’m just too tall at 6’ 3” (1.91m) and just don’t’ fit in the car.  So, no Tesla for me.  Looked at the Bavarian Money Wasters cars….  What a joke.  Especially the i3.  I fit in the car, but come on a 2 cyl moped engine?  What was BMW thinking.  And the i8 which only has an electric range of 15-24 miles.  And I thought the Germans cared about the environment.   Isn’t that why they closed the clean nuclear power plants in favor of burning dirty polluting coal and buying nuclear energy from France?
I do not fit in the VW eGolf.  But do fit in the Jetta.   But VW just discontinued it. 

Since the 1970s I have not been a fan of American cars or American car companies.  If only you knew how much I hate to admit an American car company, and specifically Chey is making the what I consider the “best” EV (for American driving habits) I will probably be leasing (not purchasing) a Chevrolet Volt.  The female in my colonly is right.  EV’s are wonderful.  And unlike a Tesla we have drive to Lake Tahoe, Palm Springs, Oregon, Santa Barbra without the need to make 30-minute re-charging pit stops.
Why are we leasing and not purchasing?  Cars today are like cell phones.  The technology (software in the car) is change so fast and the car companies are not updating the older models.  And as with cell phones as the batteries age, there capacity decreases.  I don’t want to be stuck with a car in 5 years where the batteries life has degraded.  And I certainly don’t want to be in a position where I must pay for battery replacement.  I think you will find most people are leasing electric cars and not purchasing them.

[nctnico]

But leasing a car is whoefully expensive. You'll pay for the new battery one way or another and the leasing company makes money from you while doing it. Buying a low maintenance cost used car is the most cost effective way to drive & own a car (*). Another major disadvantage of leasing a car is that if something happens to your income, the you are also without transport while you may need it the most. I had one company car in my life. When the company when belly up I had to bring the car back. Even though I could really use it to go to job interview.

* For example: my current Ford costs less than 17 euro-cents/km all in (fuel, taxes, maintenance, annual mandatory check) with the purchase price written off fully. And this is one of our more expensive cars.

[DougSpindler]

But leasing a car is whoefully expensive. You'll pay for the new battery one way or another and the leasing company makes money from you while doing it. Buying a low maintenance cost used car is the most cost effective way to drive & own a car (*). Another major disadvantage of leasing a car is that if something happens to your income, the you are also without transport while you may need it the most. I had one company car in my life. When the company when belly up I had to bring the car back. Even though I could really use it to go to job interview.

* For example: my current Ford costs less than 17 euro-cents/km all in (fuel, taxes, maintenance, annual mandatory check) with the purchase price written off fully. And this is one of our more expensive cars.

Not in the US.  The way EV car leases are structured at this time and for the past 6 years the EV car is valued $5,000 higher than the coast of an EV car of the same make/model/year with similar mileage.

Leasing or financed if something happens to your income you are screwed either way.  A Ford is considered an expensive car?  Not here in the US.  A Ford in the US is just an average car.



 

[Nauris]

Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.

Why on earth can't they just put some simple and humble Briggs & Stratton in there for the rare occasions you need more range? 6.5 hp B&S costs next to nothing and would propel small car just fine if you start it before battery goes totally flat. You would never have to worry about battery going empty and could charge anywhere in a emergency.

Car makers just have too much engineers designing utterly complex and expensive solutions for simple problems. Then they wonder their products costs so much people don't buy

[nctnico]

Leasing or financed if something happens to your income you are screwed either way.  A Ford is considered an expensive car?  Not here in the US.  A Ford in the US is just an average car.

My cars aren't financed. Ford is not considered an expensive car brand here either. When I need a 'new' car I go look around for models which have low maintenance costs and this time a Ford came out on top. We actually bought two in a short time frame because my wife needed a 'new' car as well. The advantage of buying used is that the model is out for a few years so the issues have revealed themselves.

[wraper]

Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.

Why on earth can't they just put some simple and humble Briggs & Stratton in there for the rare occasions you need more range? 6.5 hp B&S costs next to nothing and would propel small car just fine if you start it before battery goes totally flat. You would never have to worry about battery going empty and could charge anywhere in a emergency.

Car makers just have too much engineers designing utterly complex and expensive solutions for simple problems. Then they wonder their products costs so much people don't buy

Must be smarter than Tesla. Yeah, engine, generator, fuel tank come for free, I guess. Also they don't consume any space and don't add any weight. They supposedly don't need any servicing as well. And guess are not useless dead weight most of the time  . Not to say that if you start 6.5 hp engine while battery is still full (which would make no sense), it would give like 50% range increase in the best case. If started when say 30% of the charge is left, no significant range extension would be achieved at all. And then you'll be stuck while it charges the battery in a slow pace. If you want to buy PHEV where battery capacity is compromised with a presence of ICE, you have a choice.
Say in BMW i3 REx ICE develops 34 hp. And still on electric charge + full gasoline tank it has lower range than any Tesla.

[f4eru]

6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16!

Wrong. It's about cost reduction from rising production, not capacity increase.
And 16% per year cost reduction is pessimistic, it has been higher than that in each of the  last years.

[f4eru]

Say in BMW i3 REx ICE develops 34 hp. And still on electric charge + full gasoline tank it has lower range than any Tesla.

Yep.
That's why nobody buys the Rex on the i3.

[DougSpindler]

Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.

Why on earth can't they just put some simple and humble Briggs & Stratton in there for the rare occasions you need more range? 6.5 hp B&S costs next to nothing and would propel small car just fine if you start it before battery goes totally flat. You would never have to worry about battery going empty and could charge anywhere in a emergency.

Car makers just have too much engineers designing utterly complex and expensive solutions for simple problems. Then they wonder their products costs so much people don't buy

The reason is simple.  A B&S motor would pollutes more than a car’s ICE.  These motors are being phased out just love the old VW bug engines because becasue modern pollution controls can not be installed.

[Nauris]

Must be smarter than Tesla. Yeah, engine, generator, fuel tank come for free, I guess. Also they don't consume any space and don't add any weight. They supposedly don't need any servicing as well. And guess are not useless dead weight most of the time  .

Not free but like $300 and includes fuel tank. Servicing? Just change the oil sometime. Toss in new one if it blews.

Not to say that if you start 6.5 hp engine while battery is still full (which would make no sense), it would give like 50% range increase in the best case. If started when say 30% of the charge is left, no significant range extension would be achieved at all. And then you'll be stuck while it charges the battery in a slow pace.

Quite a big difference if battery is empty but charging vs battery is empty have to call the tow vehicle! Just have a pause and you are good to go.

If you want to buy PHEV where battery capacity is compromised with a presence of ICE, you have a choice.
Say in BMW i3 REx ICE develops 34 hp. And still on electric charge + full gasoline tank it has lower range than any Tesla.

Right concept but that is a BMW and I'm not made of money!
I would buy a Dacia with the Briggs & Stratton, if such were made.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The quickest an EV can refill is at 2 kWh/minute (*) (a tesla @ a supercharger @ 120kW), but any ICE can do it at ~ 400 kWh/minute (40 litres/minute), that's ~= 200x times faster: 400[kWh/min]*60[min/h]= 24 MW.

(*) Accounting for losses the real figure is ~ 0.85 times that = 1.7 kWh/minute, or 235x slower than an ICE.

[mtdoc]

The quickest an EV can refill is at 2 kWh/minute (*) (a tesla @ a supercharger @ 120kW), but any ICE can do it at ~ 400 kWh/minute (40 litres/minute), that's 200x times faster.

(*) Accounting for losses the real figure is ~ 0.85 times that = 1.7 kWh/minute, or 235x slower than any ICE.

If you you’re going to make that comparison, sure gasoline will win, but at least do it correctly.

1). ICE engines are MUCH less efficient. Ballpark 20% versus 80 - 90%.
2)  Your figure for gasoline energy density is high. 8.7 - 9.7 kWh/l are the numbers I’ve seen.

But, yeah, gasoline wins - just not as dramatically as you state.

[nctnico]

20% is for the good old gas guzzler. Modern efficient ICEs are doing 35% comfortably over a wide load range.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

2)  Your figure for gasoline energy density is high. 8.7 - 9.7 kWh/l are the numbers I’ve seen.

The figures are for diesel/gasoil: 35.8e6[joules/litre]*40[litre]/3600[seconds]/1e3 = 397.7 kWh

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

[Kjelt]

40l/minute is way higher than my average experience which is more like 3 to 4 minutes for 60 litres. Perhaps with the highvolume truck gauges.

The more important question IMO is how long will an average user find acceptable to wait till the car is 80% recharged ?
That will probably lie somewhere around 5 to 10 minutes, 20 minutes is a long time to wait.

[mtdoc]

20% is for the good old gas guzzler. Modern efficient ICEs are doing 35% comfortably over a wide load range.

OK good to know - but of course still much less efficient than an electric motor..

In any case, the underlying comparison is not really valid since electricity can be delivered directly at home  and gasoline cannot.

It only becomes relevant for car trips > 200 miles or so, which represent a very tiny fraction of car trips -probably <  0.5% or lower.  ( In the US trips > 100 miles are < 1% )

[mtdoc]

The figures are for diesel/gasoil: 35.8e6[joules/litre]*40[litre]/3600[seconds]/1e3 = 397.7 kWh

But you said *any* ICE.  Diesel cars are a tiny percentage of US autos.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

40l/minute is way higher than my average experience which is more like 3 to 4 minutes for 60 litres. Perhaps with the highvolume truck gauges.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_dispenser

Light passenger vehicle pump flow rate ranges up to about 50 litres (13 US gallons) per minute[3] (the United States limits this to 10 US gallons (38 litres) per minute[4]); pumps serving trucks and other large vehicles have a higher flow rate, up to 130 litres (34 US gallons) per minute in the UK

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The figures are for diesel/gasoil: 35.8e6[joules/litre]*40[litre]/3600[seconds]/1e3 = 397.7 kWh

But you said *any* ICE.  Diesel cars are a tiny percentage of US autos.

Yeah, s/35.8/34.2/g -> 382 kWh/minute. But Diesel engines are what moves the world!

(and I also said "at about":  "any ICE can do it at ~ 400 kWh/minute")

[mtdoc]

But Diesel engines are what moves the world!

True, but the thread is about electric cars.

Diesel-Electric trains will not be all electric anytime soon. In theory, large freight trucks could be. Ship freight transport will likely remain diesel until it reverts back to wind power....

[nctnico]

20% is for the good old gas guzzler. Modern efficient ICEs are doing 35% comfortably over a wide load range.

OK good to know - but of course still much less efficient than an electric motor..

From the generator to the wheel of an EV about 30% of the energy is lost as well. People often make that mistake by just looking at the engine/motor but electricity isn't fuel.

In any case, the underlying comparison is not really valid since electricity can be delivered directly at home  and gasoline cannot.

Why not? You can have all the fuel delivered to your home if you want. Just order it.

It only becomes relevant for car trips > 200 miles or so, which represent a very tiny fraction of car trips -probably <  0.5% or lower.  ( In the US trips > 100 miles are < 1% )

But then you'll need to own multiple cars, pay taxes for both, maintain both and last but not least have space for them. The calculation I made earlier on shows that the financial break even point between an EV and an efficient ICE car (similar sized cars!) is between 150000 and 200000km. The thing is: people buy cars based on that <0.5% of their use cases because those are usually leisure/holiday related besides space and financial constraints. This has been explained in great detail before.

[mtdoc]

From the generator to the wheel of an EV about 30% of the energy is lost as well.

  Not sure we’re you get that figure,  it even if it’s accurate, it’s far worse for ICE vehicles.

 You can have all the fuel delivered to your home if you want. Just order it.

Really? That’s your argument? If so it’s ridiculous because:

1) Most people could never install the required large fuel storage tank and even fewer live somewhere that it would be permitted.
2) You’d still need to attend your vehicle while refueling- which you don’t need to do with an EV. You can sleep while it recharges.
3) Large amounts of energy would be required just for delivery of fuel to millions of residences.

But then you'll need to own multiple cars

Why?  Many people never drive that far or if they occasionally do, could rent a car. But more importantly, many people are not that bothered by the idea of stopping for a meal or a walk while their car recharges on a long trip. That is a minor inconvenience in exchange for lower long term cost of ownership, and much less time spent standing next to the car refueling.

The problem I see over and over is that too many are stuck in the ICE mindset of stopping at the gas station frequently for a quick fill up.

As most EV owners have found, the shear convenience of not having to stop at the gas station every few days far outweighs the occasional inconvenience of a longer stop during the rare long car ride.

EVs will never fully replace ICE vehicles IMO, but not for the reasons put forth by most here.  In the end, there will just be much less personal motoring, yet what there is (if any) will likely be done in EVs.

In the meantime the faster we make the transition, the longer the oil will last for use in areas it is not so easily replaced: Ship, plane and train transport, petrochemicals, etc.

[nctnico]

All this has been discussed so I refer back to my previous posts here.

[wraper]

 You can have all the fuel delivered to your home if you want. Just order it.

Really? That’s your argument? If so it’s ridiculous because:

1) Most people could never install the required large fuel storage tank and even fewer live somewhere that it would be permitted.

In Latvia, if you transport more than 40 liters or store more than 80 liters of gasoline/diesel, you must keep purchase documents readily available. Otherwise if police or customs find out and you don't have proof of purchase, you'll be severely punished for smuggling goods subject to excise tax. They may even confiscate your car.