When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[ebastler]

Look at the post date, few days ago,  and the date he has to get five people to signup.  (Less than a month.). So the guy MAYBE gets $250 what’s your problem with that?

It's really not so difficult to understand. He has created and posted that video as a vehicle to generate referrals. It does not matter how much he actually makes, and I don't care at all. I just point out that his stated views are probably not entirely impartial.

Feel free to order a Tesla, by the way, if it meets your needs.

[Neilm]

https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/

"VW understands that, and aims to take the wind out of Tesla’s sails (and sales) by offering its entry-level EV for less than €20,000 ($23,000)"

At the moment, an EV battery pack costs a lot of money. None are at the $100 / kWh that is predicted to be required to make cars cheap. Tesla are thought to be at that level for the cells, but not the whole assembled pack. I have seen guesstamates that put other manufacturers at nearer $170  to $200 / kWh on the assembled pack.

If VW are going to produce a reasonable range electric car it will need a reasonable sized pack - lets guess 65 kWh (similar to the Nero, Kona, Tesla Model 3 and new Leaf). If they somehow manage to jump straight in and get $100 / kWh that would be $6k for the battery, leaving $16.5k for the rest of the car. That is easily doable. However, if the battery costs are $170 / kWh that would put the pack at over $11k - almost half the cost of the car.

I do hope that VW do what they say - really I do. The thing to note was the announcement had no timescales - and the only number I have seen quoted from it was the car price. Add to that in the last 6 months there have been several announcements of new EV cars equally short of detail and at least one major executive stating that they are putting full resourcing to new, cleaner Diesel technology and I'm afraid I can't take them very seriously on EVs. (Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait)

[boffin]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

[TheSteve]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

[nctnico]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.

Besides that there are also the teething problems any new car model has. At some point the author of the review had his e-Golf under repair for 3.5 weeks because the dealer couldn't find the problem. This problem occured just before he wanted to go to the UK again. As a precaution he already asked if he could borrow someone's car just in case the e-Golf would break down so he already had an alternative car lined up for the trip to the UK.

[ebastler]

At the moment, an EV battery pack costs a lot of money. None are at the $100 / kWh that is predicted to be required to make cars cheap. Tesla are thought to be at that level for the cells, but not the whole assembled pack. I have seen guesstamates that put other manufacturers at nearer $170  to $200 / kWh on the assembled pack.

Aren't the target costs of $100/kWh referring to manufacturing costs (rather than sales price to the end customer)? Assuming that a car manufacturer targets 30% prime margin, that would translate into more than $140/kWh sales price. I believe the estimated Tesla actuals also refer to their manufacturing cost. So the gap VW has to close to get to 20k€ sales price is even wider.

If VW are going to produce a reasonable range electric car it will need a reasonable sized pack - lets guess 65 kWh (similar to the Nero, Kona, Tesla Model 3 and new Leaf).

That's the optimistic view... When stating a bottom-of-the-barrel price tag, I am sure they have bottom-of-the-barrel battery capacity in mind. (And will happily sell you a larger battery at extra cost.)

[boffin]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.

I like the way you selectively grabbed information to claim the 120km range.  The author states that @ 130kmh into a headwind the range drops to 120km; and of course it does. The air resistance at 160kmph (130 + 30) air speed is 4x what it is at 80, and about double what it is at 115.  I think you'd find your petrol/diesel consumption would go up similar amounts at high speeds into a significant headwind too. 

Again, from personal experience I consistently get 220+km range out of mine.

As for the heater, I've been doing some testing, and the most consumption I see is 1.2kW for the heater on high, and the seat warmer on medium.   That will increase consumption/reduce mileage by less than 10% at highway speeds.

[boffin]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

I will probably poke my head in at the swap this weekend around noon; so if you see a grey hair wearing a negative feedback shirt....   Or a dark red eGolf.

[nctnico]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.

I like the way you selectively grabbed information to claim the 120km range.  The author states that @ 130kmh into a headwind the range drops to 120km; and of course it does. The air resistance at 160kmph (130 + 30) air speed is 4x what it is at 80, and about double what it is at 115.  I think you'd find your petrol/diesel consumption would go up similar amounts at high speeds into a significant headwind too. 

On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.

[ebastler]

On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.

Which is just another way of saying that the petrol engine is far less efficient than an electrical engine, right? 

The absolute power required for air conditioning and for compensating headwinds is the same on both cars. But its relative impact on an electric car's range is larger, since the engine consumes relatively less.

[nctnico]

On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.

Which is just another way of saying that the petrol engine is far less efficient than an electrical engine, right? 

The absolute power required for air conditioning and for compensating headwinds is the same on both cars. But its relative impact on an electric car's range is larger, since the engine consumes relatively less.

OMG  No because an airconditioning sits at the output of the engine in a regular car just like the wheels. The heat is free. The problem is in the small size of the battery in the e-Golf which makes that the airconditioning or heating eat a significant amount of the energy and leaving less for the motor. This has nothing to do with efficiency. It is all about the amount of energy which the car can bring along.

[ebastler]

OMG  No because an airconditioning sits at the output of the engine in a regular car just like the wheels. The heat is free. The problem is in the small size of the battery in the e-Golf which makes that the airconditioning or heating eat a significant amount of the energy and leaving less for the motor. This has nothing to do with efficiency. It is all about the amount of energy which the car can bring along.

Air conditioning is when you cool, not heat the air, and it does take extra energy in a petrol engine.
In general, please rethink your "small battery, nothing to do with efficiency" statement. It's wrong.
And please don't face-palm users you are responding to; it's offensive.

[nctnico]

OMG  No because an airconditioning sits at the output of the engine in a regular car just like the wheels. The heat is free. The problem is in the small size of the battery in the e-Golf which makes that the airconditioning or heating eat a significant amount of the energy and leaving less for the motor. This has nothing to do with efficiency. It is all about the amount of energy which the car can bring along.

Air conditioning is when you cool, not heat the air, and it does take extra energy in a petrol engine.
In general, please rethink your "small battery, nothing to do with efficiency" statement. It's wrong.
And please don't face-palm users you are responding to; it's offensive.

Show some numbers. Just saying it is wrong gets you another 
To run an airconditioning for X time you need Y energy. If you have a car with a capacity of 10 energy units and one with 100 energy units then the car with 10 energy units will stop before the car with 100 energy units does. Where does efficiency come into play here?

[ebastler]

Show some numbers. Just saying it is wrong gets you another 
To run an airconditioning for X time you need Y energy. If you have a car with a capacity of 10 energy units and one with 100 energy units then the car with 10 energy units will stop before the car with 100 energy units does. Where does efficiency come into play here?

Sheesh, man.
Made-up numbers below, but maybe you can get the concept:

• If you drive a petrol car and turn on the air conditioning, the range drops by 10%. So the air conditioning consumes 10% of the power of the engine, right?
• If you drive an electric car and turn on the air conditioning, the range drops by 30%. So the air conditioning consumes 30% of the power the electric engine needs.
• Both cars have similar air conditioning systems, which hence consume about the same power in absolute numbers.
• So tell me, which engine consumes more power?

Alternatively, feel free to look up the efficiencies of typical petrol vs. electrical engines. 40% vs. 90% or such.

[nctnico]

Show some numbers. Just saying it is wrong gets you another 
To run an airconditioning for X time you need Y energy. If you have a car with a capacity of 10 energy units and one with 100 energy units then the car with 10 energy units will stop before the car with 100 energy units does. Where does efficiency come into play here?

Sheesh, man.
Made-up numbers below, but maybe you can get the concept:

• If you drive a petrol car and turn on the air conditioning, the range drops by 10%. So the air conditioning consumes 10% of the power of the engine, right?
• If you drive an electric car and turn on the air conditioning, the range drops by 30%. So the air conditioning consumes 30% of the power the electric engine needs.
• Both cars have similar air conditioning systems, which hence consume about the same power in absolute numbers.
• So tell me, which engine consumes more power?

Alternatively, feel free to look up the efficiencies of typical petrol vs. electrical engines. 40% vs. 90% or such.

The efficiency doesn't matter in this discussion. It is all about convenience of use. A small range on an e-Golf (or any other EV with a small battery) means stopping more often and needing to do more planning to find charging points. With a petrol or diesel powered car I just fill it up in the morning which takes less than 5 minutes and drive all day without needing to worry about range, speed or having the airco on or not. Again: efficiency isn't the issue here because it doesn't get the EV any further and doesn't fix any problem.

[ebastler]

The efficiency doesn't matter in this discussion.

That's a weak way of saying that you finally understood, but OK, apology accepted.

[mtdoc]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.  The proof is in the pudding. Once you go EV - you don't go back.  ICE auto sales are declining. Meanwhile the exponential growth of EV adoption continues....

[nctnico]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.

Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

[coppice]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.  The proof is in the pudding. Once you go EV - you don't go back.  ICE auto sales are declining. Meanwhile the exponential growth of EV adoption continues....

Filling up my gasoline car is a 5 minute activity once a week or two, when I go to the local supermarket, which is next to the local gas station. Plugging an EV in each night may be little bother for day to day commuting, shopping, etc., but the "burden" for filling a gas or diesel car is also close to zero.

[mtdoc]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.

Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range EVs.  Just one example of such a study can be found here



Given the proliferation of charging options - the rare long trip can be done with minimal advanced planning or a rental.

For almost all car owners, it is absolutely much more convenient to own an EV and not needing to go to a gas station for 99% of miles traveled and the facts on the ground - EV owner satisfaction and EV adoption rates support this.  Your ongoing "opinions" otherwise based on zero EV ownership experience and contradicted by the actual facts are worth very little.

[mtdoc]

Filling up my gasoline car is a 5 minute activity once a week or two, when I go to the local supermarket, which is next to the local gas station. Plugging an EV in each night may be little bother for day to day commuting, shopping, etc., but the "burden" for filling a gas or diesel car is also close to zero.

Before I owned an EV I would have said the same thing.  Having owned ICE vehicles for 36 years before owning my first EV I really just took going to the gas station to fill up once a week for granted and wasn't bothered by it.  I did not buy an EV thinking it would be more convenient.  But soon after owning one I found that that was actually the best thing about EV ownership!   Before, with ICE vehicles I was always having to keep track of how much gas was in the tank and think about when I would make a detour to fill up. Usually it was at an inconvenient time.  Often I had to wait in line at the gas station.     Now, I don't even think about refueling except for the rare long trip. I just plug in at night and have no concerns about fuel for my day to day driving.  Again - most EV owners will tell you the same thing.

If you are one of the rare people who have a job that requires you to drive long distances regularly then sure - an EV probably isn't for you (unless you can afford a Tesla and have superchargers on your usual routes).  But those are edge cases.  Most people will find EV ownership much more convenient than ICE ownership.

[DougSpindler]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.  The proof is in the pudding. Once you go EV - you don't go back.  ICE auto sales are declining. Meanwhile the exponential growth of EV adoption continues....

Not quite.  In the Pacific Northwest they have storms which knock out the power for a week.  No electricity can't drive the car.

Or what about in California where we are having wildfires.  Drive home and hope to charge the batteries at night but a wild fire knocks out the power to a neighborhood.  Car's not getting charged.  Then the police tell everyone to evacuate and you jump in you car to find the batteries haven't been charged.  Now you are toast.

[mtdoc]

[nctnico]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.

Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range

That old crap again  People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

[mtdoc]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.

Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range

That old crap again

Facts are a bitch, aren't they?  Especially when all you have is opinion.

Here they are again since you continue to ignore them.



And the beat goes on....