Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 136345 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2400 on: December 06, 2018, 07:36:31 am »
There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond. It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.

I fall into that category.  I have two ICE which will be replaced by one EV.  The one I'd really like to replace is my truck.  Been looking at a conversation for my Toyota truck to EV with Stealth EV or placing a deposit on an W-15 EV truck.


 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2401 on: December 06, 2018, 07:55:17 am »
There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond. It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.

Interesting article. Thanks for posting.  It is a lot of speculation (as the author admits) but he makes well reasoned arguments. I think the coming slow and steady global economic decline will be a complicating factor in the conversion to EVs   IMHO of course.

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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2402 on: December 06, 2018, 07:57:19 am »
The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2403 on: December 06, 2018, 07:58:30 am »
There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond. It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.
That article is filled with 'I find', 'I expect', 'If', 'When' but no references to scientific fact based sources from which he got all these ideas. At the end it says 'I am not an analyst, these are my opinions'. So there you have. It is just pipe-dreaming wank and no factual information.

For starters his idea why passenger cars are selling less is plain wrong. People want bigger cars like SUVs. This trend has been going on for at least a decade. He is also basically predicting all new cars sold in 2025 (6 years from now!) are EVs. My first question is: where do the batteries come from? Where is the charging infrastructure to support all those cars? And who is going to fix the EVs? For example: my youngest son is currently learning for a car mechanic but (much to my surprise) EVs are not covered in the teaching materials at all. That is going to be a major problem as well. In the Dutch e-Golf review I linked to the owner needed to leave his car at the dealership for over 3 weeks before they managed to fix it. An EV owner I spoke to last week brought his EV in for repair because it didn't charge. The dealer wanted to send him away 'because the car drove so what is the problem?'. It took some insisting to make the dealer look into the problem. Educating enough car mechanics to maintain a large fleet of EVs is not going to happen overnight.

All in all there are some serious hurdles to be overcome which the author seems to casually forget about. There is an interesting graph in his article which also lists the adoption of tablets. The author forgets to mention that tablet sales have been declining for a couple of years already:

A quick adoption is not a guarantee for long term growth/success. Not all new technology is here to stay. Remember Bluray? Also on the decline.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 08:09:34 am by nctnico »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2404 on: December 06, 2018, 08:16:36 am »
There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond. It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.
That article is filled with 'I find', 'I expect', 'If', 'When' but no references to scientific fact based sources from which he got all these ideas.

Yes it is.  Just like your posts in this thread!  ;D :box:
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2405 on: December 06, 2018, 08:23:06 am »
The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.

Yes, and look at iPhone/Apple sales now.  After many years of increased growth, Apple sales for the new iPhone aren't doing so well.
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2406 on: December 06, 2018, 02:03:51 pm »
The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.

Mobile phone sales plateau'd.  it's just that people moved from old dumb phones to smart phones. Now that they have them, growth has slowed, but it doesn't remove the fact that 80-90% of all new phones are smartphones.

Let's visit your claim that EVs are worse in every sense (except torque)

The only advantages of an ICE are
  • range
  • speed of refuelling

As for EV advantages you've missed
  • cheaper to operate (1/8th the price for fuel in my jurisdiction)
  • lower emissions
  • quieter - a much improved environment inside
  • lower scheduled maintenance costs
  • resulting in a lower total cost of ownership over a 100,000km period


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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2407 on: December 06, 2018, 03:04:33 pm »
The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.

Mobile phone sales plateau'd.  it's just that people moved from old dumb phones to smart phones. Now that they have them, growth has slowed, but it doesn't remove the fact that 80-90% of all new phones are smartphones.

Let's visit your claim that EVs are worse in every sense (except torque)

The only advantages of an ICE are
  • range
  • speed of refuelling

As for EV advantages you've missed
  • cheaper to operate (1/8th the price for fuel in my jurisdiction)
  • lower emissions
  • quieter - a much improved environment inside
  • lower scheduled maintenance costs
  • resulting in a lower total cost of ownership over a 100,000km period

I would add to that they are much more fun to drive as well.
The lower cost for maitance is going to really financially hurt the atuo dealers.

Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.



 
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2408 on: December 06, 2018, 05:55:31 pm »
Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.

Sounds about right, you're paying a similar price for gasoline, and about double (at your cheapest tariff) what I pay for electricity (mine is that rate 24/7).

My costs in CAD (USD)
electricity C$0.091/kWh (US$0.068)
gasoline C$1.319/litre (US$3.74/USGal)

my car's usage (vs its ICE twin)
17.4kWh/100km @ 0.091/kWh = C$1.58/100km
8.5l/100km @ 1.319/l = C$11.21/100km

Gasoline has dipped a little recently from 1.499 to 1.319/l around here recently, so my original 8x number I calculated a couple of months ago has drifted down to 7x.

My actual fuel costs are a little lower, as the business park I'm in has 14 EVSE spread around (which are always busy), and allow 2hrs of employee charging/day; so for example I managed to grab about 8kWh this afternoon.  The free ride on this kind of charging probably isn't that long for the world, but doing it at home is easy enough, and my 40km/day could easily be replenished using just a regular 120V outlet.

*Consumption figures, combined cycle, 2018 VW eGolf vs 2018 VW Golf from Transport Canada https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2409 on: December 06, 2018, 10:36:11 pm »
It’s incredible how inexpensive your electricity prices are.  It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to our power company and our prices as our power company is responsible for that gas pipeline that exploded killing a dozen people not to long ago.  And they are responsible for starting several of the wild fires in our state including the most deadly wildfire that’s still burning.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hook-on-PGE-Tower-Eyed-as-Cause-of-Deadly-Camp-Fire-502035081.html
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 10:38:34 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2410 on: December 07, 2018, 03:28:22 am »


Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.
At present there are no gas taxes (i.e. for roads) on electricity.  At some point that will have to change if the number of EVs increase.  Your rates are close to mine except if you use a bunch of electricty it goes to 55cents/kW-hr.  Also There are comercial charging stations here that chrage 70cents/kW-hr. 

So charge at night. 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2411 on: December 07, 2018, 03:47:43 am »


Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.
At present there are no gas taxes (i.e. for roads) on electricity.  At some point that will have to change if the number of EVs increase.  Your rates are close to mine except if you use a bunch of electricty it goes to 55cents/kW-hr.  Also There are comercial charging stations here that chrage 70cents/kW-hr. 

So charge at night.

Wonder how they would impose the road tax.  Would have to be for miile driven.  I know for diesel fuel used in farming (no road tax) they dye the diesel pink.  Maybe they will do something similar for EV like up spinning the electrons used for charging EVs.

Only way I think this could be done is mileage reporting to the government.  And since we all lie on our taxes (may not be Christian, but is’t suare as heck the American thing to do) it means the ca4r companies would have to report the odometer reading to the government.  Americans have tried to keep the government out of our bedrooms, but now they wast to get into our cars. 
 

Online dr.diesel

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2412 on: December 07, 2018, 03:56:08 am »
Wonder how they would impose the road tax.

That could make for an interesting future incentive!  Deferred or no road tax.

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2413 on: December 07, 2018, 04:14:16 am »
Wonder how they would impose the road tax.

That could make for an interesting future incentive!  Deferred or no road tax.

Look at what happens when France tried to raise gasoline taxes.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2414 on: December 07, 2018, 04:42:38 am »
Wonder how they would impose the road tax.
That could make for an interesting future incentive!  Deferred or no road tax.
In many European countries there is already some form of road tax. Whether you drive or not. The tariff depends on the weight and type of fuel.
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Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2415 on: December 07, 2018, 05:00:31 am »
It’s incredible how inexpensive your electricity prices are.  It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to our power company and our prices as our power company is responsible for that gas pipeline that exploded killing a dozen people not to long ago.  And they are responsible for starting several of the wild fires in our state including the most deadly wildfire that’s still burning.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hook-on-PGE-Tower-Eyed-as-Cause-of-Deadly-Camp-Fire-502035081.html

We have lots of rivers and mountains, that makes for readily available Hydro Electricity, and hence the low cost for electricity. Right now we don't have a tiered pricing system, but I would expect that we'll go from 8.5c (+tax) flat-rate to something more like 12c/6c (day/night) over the next 10 yrs, or that it will be an option (which I'll jump all over). I have a friend in the US who's overnight rate (while he's charging) was something silly cheap like 3c/kWh

As for pipelines exploding, the main natural gas pipeline into the SW of our province exploded last month (no injuries), but they're saying there may be natural gas shortages this winter while they bring it back up to 100% capacity.

As for discussions about road tax, the change from fuel-based is coming, or is it. There are a couple of possibilities, flat rating EVs, or just mileage reporting for everyone. From an environmental point of view, the tax per litre is good as it encourages lower consumption vehicles, which I think we can all agree are better for everyone involved.  The other option is go to a tiered system based on mileage (and consumption), which isn't going to be too hard to implement.  You'd be surprised how much info there is already out there.  Try pumping your VIN into mycarfax.com (free), and you'll probably see that your dealer/maintenance provider has already given out your mileage on multiple occasions.


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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2416 on: December 07, 2018, 05:56:57 am »
It is likely to be a mileage self reporting thing, done at annual registration time.  Cheating will be controlled by access to maintenance records and stiff fines when under reporting is found.  Or by checking the license plates that pass red light cameras or speed check cameras.  Or just require a bit of a modification on RFID which reports VIN number and current mileage.  Would add virtually nothing to the cost of the vehicle.  And there are some pretty simple ways to catch and punish those who use one of the simple methods of disabling the system.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2417 on: December 07, 2018, 05:57:21 am »
I pay $0.073/kWh -anytime of day. Most of the northwest and central south US pay less than $0.09/ Kwh on average. California is at the other extreme averaging over $0.15/kWh.  Yet even in California, charging off peak hours results in significant fuel savings compared to ICE fueling.

 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2418 on: December 07, 2018, 06:30:42 am »
All data can be misleading.  I live in Oregon and my cost of electricity over the last two years has varied from 11.2 cents per kwH to 11.7 cents per kwH, not the 7-9 cents on mtdoc's chart.  There is no explicit off peak rate in my area, but there is a penalty rate for excessive consumption (and a poverty rate for those with very low consumption).  The actual rates are well hidden, not published on the web.  A regression analysis on my bills has not resulted in a coherent answer.  My consumption typically falls under the penalty rate, but not dramatically so, so I would expect that rate to increase if I was charging a vehicle on top of other consumption.  Still very competitive with gas prices.

I suspect that the state average shown on mtdoc's chart includes some large industrial customers who get a sweat heart rate, dragging the overall average down.  Again the devil is in the details.  Your power company at your location with your contract and your consumption patterns.  My rates are likely to change soon as the local power company has just finished installing electronic meters with wireless reporting.  They explicitly stated that one of the reasons for the installation was to enable differential rates.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2419 on: December 07, 2018, 06:36:21 am »
Not only that but it seems to me those rates don't include transport costs, taxes and subscription costs.
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2420 on: December 07, 2018, 06:52:03 am »
All data can be misleading.  I live in Oregon and my cost of electricity over the last two years has varied from 11.2 cents per kwH to 11.7 cents per kwH, not the 7-9 cents

It's a state average - which of course does not mean it represents what every person pays..

Quote
I suspect that the state average shown on mtdoc's chart includes some large industrial customers who get a sweat heart rate, dragging the overall average down.

Well, the graphic is labelled "retail" - but I'm not sure exactly what that means. It's just a nice graphic that represents regional differences.

A more current listing or state by state average of residential customer rates can be found here.   It shows that as of June 2018, Oregon's average rate is closer to (but still less) that what you pay.

It lists Washington's average at $0.0979/kWh which is quite a bit more than what I pay. 

In any case the point is the same.  In most parts of the US, residential customers pay low enough electricity rates that EVs are very cheap to fuel.   And even in the most expensive states (which also tend to have the highest gasoline prices) EVs are less expensive to fuel.  That's just the facts.

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2421 on: December 07, 2018, 07:01:27 am »
Those are the incomplete facts and thus useless. You should add more 'It's true. Really' to your statements.

BTW if the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2422 on: December 07, 2018, 07:02:25 am »
Not only that but it seems to me those rates don't include transport costs, taxes and subscription costs.

That's a red herring and you know it. It's been addressed before in this thread. Stop spreading FUD.

Taxes are a very small fraction of electricity rates. Subscription costs are as well in most cases and subscription costs would be paid whether an EV was being charged or not.

For example - the total of all my electricity taxes is equal to $0.005/kWh. 
My monthly subscription cost is $29.69 no matter how much electricity I use. 
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2423 on: December 07, 2018, 07:03:32 am »
And now add the transport costs.
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2424 on: December 07, 2018, 07:07:12 am »
If you don't count the wear of the battery. If the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km).

More bullshit. Cost of EV replacement batteries vary and are rapidly decreasing and at 3000 km an ICE would require at least as much or more to maintain.

Are you going to count the cost of engine and transmission rebuild, frequent oil changes, brake jobs, etc that an ICE requires but an EV doesn't? 

You'e become a troll nctnico - you never supply any facts, just repeat the same old ICE centric talking points which have been refuted with actual facts numerous times in this thread.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 07:12:09 am by mtdoc »
 


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