When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[DougSpindler]

Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
 This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU

[coppice]

Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
 This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU

Its from Prager University, which is about as much like a university as Trump University was. The comments under that video list multiple well thought out rebuttals.

[george80]

I fully believe what is said in the vid.
just because we are brainwashed that EVs are better and cleaner and cheaper to run and all the hype does not mean in any way it is true.


I have to say I am sick to the back teeth of hearing about Co2 though. Bored shitless in fact.

I did some number crunching using Teslas own figures on cost to run a while back and found the EV was more expensive to run than an IC. As usual, tesla slews the numbers their way by offering an amount of free charging which they take into their calculation to make the numbers look favourable. Of course when you have used up that free power (400? Kw) and are paying a middle road price for power in oz of .30C Kwh, the things are significantly more exy to run for the same miles traveled.

There is one thing i don't often see factored into the EV equation and that's Vehicle Life.
It's pretty clear to everyone that once the battery pack in an EV dies or looses significant capacity  in the estimated 7-10 years, the things will be worthless.
Unlike the cost of maintence for an IC which can easily go 20 Year without  major over haul, a new/ refurb EV pack will be more than the car is worth.
A lot of the diagnostics on EV's won't be happy with a calculted 50 Km range from say 250KM, They will just brick the things to make sure there are no safety issues for one thing.

It won't be just a matter of go to a wrecker and get another pack. Already manufacturers are coding parts to the cars computer ( Tesla even does head and tail lights that won't work until coded and approved to work on another vehicle which they decide  and have to authorize) so if the manufacturer says something like "  we only allow refurb packs to be used bought through us so we can be assured they meet our quality and safety standards" or similar bullshit,  You can bet they are going to price the packs so as to make a replacement un economical and force you into a new vehicle.

there goes giving the old car to the kids or selling it and putting the money towards the new one. The thing will be SCRAP.
Plenty of 10 and 20 yo cars getting round here and doing fine.  I have a 13, a 17 and a 26 Yo now and they give no trouble at all.
the 17 Yo just had a through going though and I replaced a driveshaft, front pads and the wiper blades as well as an oil and filter change.  Cam belt has another 40k km to go and I don't see anything more than that needing to be done other than regular Maintence.

 Seems unlikely they will be many/ any EV's past 10 Yo.  Faster turn over means more resources used, more emissions created and over all a detriment for the planet.

The whole thing about EV's being enviro friendly is a crock. they are not created to save the planet, they are made to make the manufacturers money. More money than they have seen since they started.
Simple as that.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

I think the gubbermints as you say want to try to force us to trash all our ICEs asap and buy again new cars everybody. That's lots in taxes and fees and macro economy figures which is good for them and bad for us and our pockets.

[orion242]

It's pretty clear to everyone that once the battery pack in an EV dies or looses significant capacity  in the estimated 7-10 years, the things will be worthless.
Unlike the cost of maintence for an IC which can easily go 20 Year without  major over haul, a new/ refurb EV pack will be more than the car is worth.

Was thinking along the same lines after hearing these nuts talk about powering buildings with EVs

https://youtu.be/ZocItmIPQEM?t=375

So I drive to work, hopefully charge while there and ideally have a full charge when I leave.  How much power could really be sucked out of EVs and still leave me with enough to get home, never mind if I have errands to run after work?   Unless there are quick chargers at every parking spot, seems like there would be little to harvest.  Would be interesting to look at the avg number of cars parked at the typical commercial building and its power consumption and what installing charge ports in a whole parking structure costs.

That aside.  I own said battery pack and its got a limited number of cycles and the most expensive component to replace.  What incentive is there for me to sign up for this nonsense and wear the piss out of my battery?

[boffin]

Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

[orion242]

Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Over four years...avoiding the whole battery replacement costs.

One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

Somewhat pointless in both cases.

[nctnico]

Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Over four years...

One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

Somewhat pointless in both cases.

Agreed and the comparison is likely not taking the massive costs of infrastructure upgrades into account and assumes people can charge at home.
The dead giveaway the graph is wrong (lying) is because diesel cars are more expensive compared to petrol. Diesel cars are cheaper to run because the fuel is cheaper but the higher purchase price requires you to drive more.

[boffin]

Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Over four years...avoiding the whole battery replacement costs.

One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

Somewhat pointless in both cases.

As for your suggested calculation, who buys a car and then instantly resells it (which is the only scenario that would apply).

This just comes down to "haters gonna hate" , doesn't it?

[orion242]

As for your suggested calculation, who buys a car and then instantly resells it (which is the only scenario that would apply).

Said nothing about selling it.  For comparable car, roll it off the lot, which is cheaper today and without a ton of subsidies?

This just comes down to "haters gonna hate" , doesn't it?

And then there are the Musk fanboys that think they will sitting on mars with cold frosty drinks in a few years for little more than the cost of today's plane tickets.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

 

[DougSpindler]

Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
 This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU

Its from Prager University, which is about as much like a university as Trump University was. The comments under that video list multiple well thought out rebuttals.

Can you highlight some of the well thought out rebuttals you seem to have found?  Most are opinions which say what's in the video is wrong.  Of that that Prager has a agenda and is biased.

While all of that might be true no one has provided any credible evidence to the contrary.  In the limited fact checking I have done I can't find any fault in the science or the figures.

A fact used in the video is the life of the car.  Looking at stats from around the world average age is around 9 years is fair based on the date the video was created.

It is really a fair representation to have a sample size of 1 or 4 countries?  So while some of you might live in Australia where EVs are charged by coal. Or in Canada where they would be charged by hydro.  Or Sweden/France where they are charged by nuclear.  And it looks like if you live in the UK and own an EV the electricity is free.

Why are you thinking locally when what's being discussed in the video is globally?  And the life of the average car.

[orion242]

Even that video seems to only compare the first 9yrs between ICE & EV.  Personally I have kept the last 3-4 cars till they got in the 150-200k mark.  Last one just got taken off the road by the inspection nazis, 2002 Chevy S10 with 167k miles.  Ran great yet, but was rusting so much it was BER.

Just looking at some quick figures, its seems the DOT has the average lifespan of a US car at 11yrs these days.  Seems realistic, I certainly take them to the grave and normally get more than that.

How long is the lifespan on a EV battery?  100K miles?  150k?  200k?

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost
https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975

So what is the resale value of a 10yr old EV?  Guessing most of these end up at the scrapper since its probably not worth the battery replacement cost at that point.  If ICE can get another few years of useful life, that alot of additional manufacturing impact as well.  150-200K miles isn't a problem for a maintained ICE of the last few decades.

[dzseki]

Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...

[DougSpindler]

Even that video seems to only compare the first 9yrs between ICE & EV.  Personally I have kept the last 3-4 cars till they got in the 150-200k mark.  Last one just got taken off the road by the inspection nazis, 2002 Chevy S10 with 167k miles.  Ran great yet, but was rusting so much it was BER.

Just looking at some quick figures, its seems the DOT has the average lifespan of a US car at 11yrs these days.  Seems realistic, I certainly take them to the grave and normally get more than that.

How long is the lifespan on a EV battery?  100K miles?  150k?  200k?

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost
https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975

So what is the resale value of a 10yr old EV?  Guessing most of these end up at the scrapper since its probably not worth the battery replacement cost at that point.  If ICE can get another few years of useful life, that alot of additional manufacturing impact as well.  150-200K miles isn't a problem for a maintained ICE of the last few decades.

We are in the middle of an experiment with EV batteries.  We have hypothetical figures, but the truth is we don't know for modern EVs.  I think we have very good data from the first EVs of 100 years ago.  And second generation EVs from the 1970s.

Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Out of curiosity anyone know the life of EV batteries from 100 years ago?  Baker EVs could be driven four to five hours on a single charge.

[nctnico]

Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...

I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.

[DougSpindler]

Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...

I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. Many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.

It's an experiment in progress.

[coppice]

Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...

I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.

I think you mean many people drive largely around town, and never get up to speed. This causes problems for the DPF in diesels, and car makers tell people clears that the car needs frequent highway runs to clear the filter. Ford just sold the Ecoboost engines as general purpose engines. Its turning into a financial disaster for Ford, with all the compensation for fires and the recalls. You have an interesting concept of reliable.

[dzseki]

One way or an other, car manufacturers let that be ICE or EV, want YOU to buy new car frequently, and they do more and more to force this.

[orion242]

Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150

Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.

[coppice]

Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150

Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.

Remember that the Leaf has limited range. A lot of buyers are probably people who mostly make short journeys, and are way below the national average for annual mileage.

[nctnico]

Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...

I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.

I think you mean many people drive largely around town, and never get up to speed. This causes problems for the DPF in diesels, and car makers tell people clears that the car needs frequent highway runs to clear the filter. Ford just sold the Ecoboost engines as general purpose engines. Its turning into a financial disaster for Ford, with all the compensation for fires and the recalls. You have an interesting concept of reliable.

I'm unaware of fires. There has been a recall for fixing the cooling system of the Ecoboost engines. AFAIK the resulting damages have been repaired for free. Every new car model has teething issues so nothing out of the ordinary there. Just be sure not to buy a new car model and you'll be fine. One of the advantages of buying used cars is that you can research common problems.

BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.

[gildasd]

Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150

Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.

Depends where you live...
With a co-worker we were looking for a decent 2013 Leaf in the Nederland, and they were all way too expensive...
He needed a car for school runs, shopping, wife going to uni and going to the parents on Sundays, so the range is more than sufficient.
From where he lives the closest cheap petrol station is very inconveniently situated, so he was hoping to avoid ever getting a tank.
Anyhow, he got a small Honda Hybrid, still good on the tax front, but not what he wanted.

[DougSpindler]

BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.

This is exactly why you don't want to driving around in an old car.  Modern cars do not have this issue.

[george80]

Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

Yes, Look at that, Another media article held out as proof of something done by a biased organisation that do not show how their figures were derived.
Worth less than the electrons used to publish it.
Show me the numbers and calculations if these reports are to be believed.  They could say anything if you cherry pick the conclusions.
Maybe EV's are cheaper to run in Europe but because they are not here and I have to the calcs, I'll need to see their numbers to be convinced of that.

It's not automatically dismissing something I don't want to believe, it's a case of not providing enough info to prove I might be wrong.

I have crunched the numbers before and just in running costs to travel  any distance over 1500 Km which is where the free charging amount ran out, the tesla WAS more expensive.  Maybe they saw where I had shown that on various forums. They seem to have taken their cost Milage comparison off the site now.
Was pretty obvious. using their figures which were surprisingly accurate as to fuel and electricity costs here, once you took away the free charge factor or calculated on the 2nd 1500 KM, they came out more exy.

Of course that dosent take into account the cost and repayments/ interest of a $120K car here as against a very comparable ICE you could get for half that or less.
$60 K still buys a lot of fuel and servicing.

I was reading yesterday where some in the industry are saying that EV's will achieve price parity with ICE's by 2025.
We'll wait and see if that comes off, sounds like complete and utter BS to me but in any case, it just means the EV you buy today is going to loose a shipload of resale value in 5 years time which would be another factor to enter in to the equation and a damn good reason not to rush into an EV for a while yet.