Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 66601 times)

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Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1650 on: August 10, 2018, 09:09:28 am »

Then you should get one now since there are several available for which lifetime cost of ownership is less than equivalent ICE and even more convenient to refuel.  But I suspect you are really more just out to make a political statement.

So everyone must be uninformed?  BS!

If electric cars were more economical and more convenient, everyone would be driving them already.
 

Online mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1651 on: August 10, 2018, 10:05:49 am »

Then you should get one now since there are several available for which lifetime cost of ownership is less than equivalent ICE and even more convenient to refuel.  But I suspect you are really more just out to make a political statement.

So everyone must be uninformed?  BS!

If electric cars were more economical and more convenient, everyone would be driving them already.

Have you read the rest of this thread?
Lots of data has been presented. Transitions take time.

Nevertheless, EV adoption rate is rising exponentially. But we’ve had 100 years of ICE motoring and the infrastructure comes with it. It should be obvious to anyone that such a transition will take time. 20-30 years is my guess and that would be a remarkable feat given the entrenched ICE businesses and infrastructure. 

As far as why EV sales growth is not even more rapid than its already very rapid pace. There are several reasons that should be obvious to anyone who gives it a few moments thought.

1.Most people are unaware that there are, depending on their circumstances*, BEVs or PHEVs available right now that will save them money and make their life more convenient.  (* yes this does not apply to everyone)

2. People are creatures of habit, and generally just go with what they already know.

3. Despite what you and others may claim, most people do not base their decisions on lifetime cost of ownership or refuelling convenience.

4. Many, many people cannot afford ANY new car and there is not yet a well established used EV market - they have not been aroind long enough.

5. There is a strong and vocal anti-EV political contingent who refuse to consider anything they associate with a certain part of the political spectrum,  justified ot not.

6.There are powerful corporate interests who are motivated to slow the EV growth rate as much as possible (and spend large amounts of cash to work towards that end).

No,  EVs aren’t the answer for everyone - but in the US especially where very few don’t have the ability to charge at home, they are a good, financially viable option now.

The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.
 

Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1652 on: August 10, 2018, 10:22:20 am »
People aren't stupid. Most go for least expensive option.

If you don't believe me, stand outside where there's a Target next to Walmart and you will see.
 

Online mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1653 on: August 10, 2018, 10:38:49 am »
People aren't stupid. Most go for least expensive option.

If you don't believe me, stand outside where there's a Target next to Walmart and you will see.

 :palm:

Yeah that’s why the only vehicles sold are $4000 used cars.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1654 on: August 10, 2018, 03:29:11 pm »
I doubt Formula 1 cars are only 30% efficient. They use very new ICE principles and have a limited amount of fuel. Besides that formula 1 cars have hybrid (electric + ICE) drive systems.

So what is the efficiency of a Foumula One car?

Did you listen to the podcast?  The engineers who work on Formula One cars are the ones giving the efficiency figures. :-DMM
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1655 on: August 10, 2018, 05:58:47 pm »
So what is the efficiency of a Foumula One car?

30% was the efficiency peak for old normally-aspirated V8 engines, current f1 cars have turbos and are hybrid, so must be more than that, closer to 50%.

The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.

That, sadly, may be true.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 06:03:08 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1656 on: August 10, 2018, 06:42:20 pm »
The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.
For the short term yes, the long term I don't know.
The big question is if everyone should own/have one or multiple transportaion vehicles or that in the era of self driving vehicles you can just ask for one if you need to go somewhere.
The world is and has to change in order to be more sustainable for the longer future.
Having 1600kg of metal standing still for 93% of the time on the parkway for 7 billion people might not be the best way to solve the human transportation challenge esp when as the trend seems to go that 75% of humans will live in cities in the 22nd century.
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1657 on: August 11, 2018, 12:49:32 am »
And we even didn't get to the costs part. The price difference of the EV compared to ICE gets you about 150k to 200k km further before break even at very high fuel prices using an efficient car. Factor in electricity at 20 cents per kWh then that distance will cost you at least around $6750 for the electricity (no, electricity from solar panels isn't free either). That buys you enough fuel for another 84000km. So the actual financial break even point is way beyond 250k km. By that time the battery of the EV is likely to have issues.

Show your work. Qualitative math is not useful here.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1658 on: August 11, 2018, 01:22:02 am »
EV race cars are adding a new dimension to automobile racing.

But F1 cars are much faster, about 100 mph more than any FE, more powerful, weight much less and generate tons of downforce, and FE EVs run out of juice pretty fast, so there's no way an FE can do, say, 67 laps at Hockenheim, or a 1 1/2 hour race. In other words, there's no comparison.

Dude how can you say there is no comparison?  Did you listen to the Allstars podcast?  F1 cars are heavier and far less efficient?  To make the race fair for EV they limit the battery power output.  While the speed are not quite F1 ICE speeds the acelleration kicks F1 ICE ass. 

I eencouage you to listen to the podcast because it all a loud comparing F1 with FE. 

What’s really exciting about FE is the technology used in FE makes it’s way into production cars in a year or two.  As compared to F1 technology which doesn't.  Oh crud, there I am making a comparison.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1659 on: August 11, 2018, 01:22:56 am »
And we even didn't get to the costs part. The price difference of the EV compared to ICE gets you about 150k to 200k km further before break even at very high fuel prices using an efficient car. Factor in electricity at 20 cents per kWh then that distance will cost you at least around $6750 for the electricity (no, electricity from solar panels isn't free either). That buys you enough fuel for another 84000km. So the actual financial break even point is way beyond 250k km. By that time the battery of the EV is likely to have issues.
Show your work. Qualitative math is not useful here.
The price difference between a comparable EV and efficient ICE car is around $9000. Say fuel costs $1.00 per liter then that difference buys you 9000 liters of fuel. At 20 km/liter (which a modern fuel efficient ICE can do easely) that amount of fuel will get you 180 000km. Ofcourse this equation will be different based on local fuel prices.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1660 on: August 11, 2018, 01:34:16 am »
Going the same distance (180k km) in an electric car would cost you 32% as much, about $2900, if 75 kWh gets you 340 miles of range and electricity is 12.5¢/kWh. Many EV owners pay even less, 4-10¢/kWh. I don't see why you think it would take so long to break even.

Also, 20km/l is not "easy" for most ICE cars that aren't Priuses. That converts to about 47 mpg. Average mileage in the US is still less than 25 mpg, or about 11 km/l. Even a VW Golf will struggle to get over 35 mpg. There are very few people who would be worse off on the five-ten year timespan by buying an EV.

Gas in the EU is also much more expensive than $1/l... in Amsterdam it has been over $1.6/l for the past four months! That means your 180,000 km in a 47 mpg Prius will actually cost $15000, more than 5x as much as the electric car. If you drive a more realistic EU car like a Honda manual, efficiency is close to 15 km/l, meaning 180,000km of gas costs $19,000.

tl;dr Gas in the EU is 60% more expensive than nctnico says, EU cars seem to get 75% of the fuel efficiency that nctnico says. Gas in the US is about the price claimed, $3.50/gallon, but average US fuel efficiency is barely 55% of what nctnico says.

These small exaggerations add up: he says it would cost $9000 to go 180,000 km, but in the EU that number is closer to $19000 when you factor in real-world efficiency and gas prices.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 01:56:39 am by a59d1 »
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1661 on: August 11, 2018, 01:48:08 am »
I'd rather they threw some money at Phinergy to get aluminium air batteries for racing, assuming the Phinergy car wasn't a complete scam they already have the technology for useful power density and much higher energy density than lithium ion. Not a good battery tech for general purpose use, but ideal for racing.

Lithium Ion is a dead end.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1662 on: August 11, 2018, 01:56:24 am »
Going the same distance (180k km) in an electric car would cost you 32% as much, about $2900, if 75 kWh gets you 340 miles of range and electricity is 12.5¢/kWh. Many EV owners pay even less, 4-10¢/kWh. I don't see why you think it would take so long to break even.

Also, 20km/l is not "easy" for most ICE cars that aren't Priuses. That converts to about 47 mpg. Average mileage in the US is still less than 25 mpg, or about 11 km/l. There are very few people who would be worse off on the five-ten year timespan by buying an EV.

Gas in the EU is also much more expensive than $1/l... in Amsterdam it has been over $1.6/l for the past four months! That means your 180,000 km in a 47 mpg Prius will actually cost $15000, almost 5x as much as the electric car.
But you forget the EV costs much more to begin with and for that amount of money you can drive a very long way whether it is 100k km or 200k km (and that is assuming the electricity is for free for the EV). In the NL 1kWh costs around 0.21 euro cents. Driving 180k km would cost around 8505 euro for the electricity. For that you can buy enough fuel to drive over 100k km with an efficient ICE car. All in all driving the EV is cheaper but around 44% and not 70%.

Also don't make the mistake by looking at average consumption. You are buying a new EV or new ICE car so you can choose the most efficient one. For example the Ford cars with the 1.0 ecoboost engine are very efficient.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1663 on: August 11, 2018, 01:58:13 am »
Is excise tax added to electric cars?
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1664 on: August 11, 2018, 02:02:30 am »
Ecoboost is basically marketing. Ford doesn't even manufacture cars/sedans for the US anymore, but if you can buy the 2018 Ecoboost Focus you are told 30/40 mpg, but real-world is probably closer to 35, or about 16 km/l.
 
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Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1665 on: August 11, 2018, 02:07:02 am »
For that you can buy enough fuel to drive over 100k km with an efficient ICE car. All in all driving the EV is cheaper but around 44% and not 70%.

Yes, and this is why we do not exaggerate by saying cars easily get 20 km/l and gas is $1/l. Electric cars have lower operating costs, lower sensitivity to global oil prices, and a multitude of other benefits at the expense of 10-20% higher initial costs.

In the long run, the grid and market will adapt and people will buy them just as they bought $400-700 iPhones and Androids over $50-200 flip phones and Blackberries.
 
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Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1666 on: August 11, 2018, 02:11:21 am »
Is excise tax added to electric cars?

Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 02:13:24 am by a59d1 »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1667 on: August 11, 2018, 02:17:44 am »
So what is the efficiency of a Foumula One car?

30% was the efficiency peak for old normally-aspirated V8 engines, current f1 cars have turbos and are hybrid, so must be more than that, closer to 50%.

The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.

That, sadly, may be true.

What is it you know, that the F1 designeres, engineers and drivers in the podcast don't know?  If you can get close to 50% they would hire you immediatly.  They don't know how to do it.  And they have all of the equipmnet to measure it.


 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1668 on: August 11, 2018, 02:20:47 am »
Doug is spot on: https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/131772/mercedes-engine-hits-remarkable-dyno-target

Quote
It has used a version of its F1 engine in its new Project ONE road car, which has a thermal efficiency of 40%.
 
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1669 on: August 11, 2018, 02:28:15 am »
For that you can buy enough fuel to drive over 100k km with an efficient ICE car. All in all driving the EV is cheaper but around 44% and not 70%.
Yes, and this is why we do not exaggerate by saying cars easily get 20 km/l and gas is $1/l. Electric cars have lower operating costs, lower sensitivity to global oil prices, and a multitude of other benefits at the expense of 10-20% higher initial costs.
Now you are assuming electricity will be available in large quantities. I'm quite sure it won't so instead of relying on oil prices you'll be relying on other factors.

I'm also not sure about lower operating costs. This year I visited some schools where teenagers learn to be a car mechanic. None of them where teaching about electric cars. Only one had a Prius but they didn't use it because of safety reasons. This means you'll need to rely on a specialist for servicing your EV for the upcoming decade while you can take your ICE car to the garage around the corner. I posted it earlier in this thread: the maintenance costs for an EV are higher than that of an ICE based car.

I don't get where people get the idea that an EV has lower maintenance costs. It also has a gearbox, drive shaft, brakes, motor drive electronics and (usually) a cooling/heating system for the battery. It is not like an EV is less complex if you look at the entire car.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1670 on: August 11, 2018, 02:34:34 am »


Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair


Well that doesn't seem like much compared to approximately fifty cents per gallon tax on gasoline.  That would have to go up considerably.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1671 on: August 11, 2018, 02:52:47 am »


Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair


Well that doesn't seem like much compared to approximately fifty cents per gallon tax on gasoline.  That would have to go up considerably.

You bring up an excellent point about taxes.  EV vehicles are getting a free ride so to speak when it comes to taxes.  As of July 1, 2019 Californians will be paying  $.767 per gallon of gas in taxes.  What do these taxes pay for?  The maintenance of our roads and highways.  If one owns an EV and does not buy any gas where's the money going to come form.  If I recall correctly there is a tax on tires, (not much) which pays for road maintenance.

Is this the same in other countries?


At the moment, EV drivers aren't paying their fair share to maintain the roads they depend on.





 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1672 on: August 11, 2018, 03:18:47 am »
Also, 20km/l is not "easy" for most ICE cars that aren't Priuses. That converts to about 47 mpg. Average mileage in the US is still less than 25 mpg, or about 11 km/l.
Most new cars do better than 25 MPG highway. The 2018 non hybrid Camry does 41 MPG highway and the hybrid version 53 MPG. It's obvious EVs are pushing for regular cars to increase MPG to try to stay competitive. And thereby I argue that EVs are of benefit even to those who don't drive one. (Something like how Linux pushed Microsoft to make a consumer version of Windows that's actually reliable.)
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1673 on: August 11, 2018, 03:40:24 am »

You bring up an excellent point about taxes.  EV vehicles are getting a free ride so to speak when it comes to taxes.  As of July 1, 2019 Californians will be paying  $.767 per gallon of gas in taxes.  What do these taxes pay for?  The maintenance of our roads and highways.  If one owns an EV and does not buy any gas where's the money going to come form.  If I recall correctly there is a tax on tires, (not much) which pays for road maintenance.

Is this the same in other countries?


At the moment, EV drivers aren't paying their fair share to maintain the roads they depend on.

Exactly. EV's aren't exactly the perpetual motion machines many proponents claim they are. They're getting a free ride on excise tax because right now there is such small numbers compared to gasoline powered cars. But that will change. I imagine you will eventually be assessed excise by your mileage or a similar method. So that should be added to the cost of ownership.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1674 on: August 11, 2018, 04:08:51 am »
I'd rather they threw some money at Phinergy to get aluminium air batteries for racing, assuming the Phinergy car wasn't a complete scam they already have the technology for useful power density and much higher energy density than lithium ion. Not a good battery tech for general purpose use, but ideal for racing.

Lithium Ion is a dead end.

Phinergy battereis (from the marketing materail) sound incredible.  Elon Musk/Teala, Cheverlot, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo all must be using these incredble battereis in their cars.  Oh, wait a minute they aren't.  Surely if they are this good they must be used in Formula E reace cars.

Oh wait a minute they don't.  In looking on their web stie it appears they don't have any custoemrs or case studies.  I can't even find a description of the prdouct you are describing.  There web site if filled with marketing BS.  The company is making a lot of cliams, but so far the only vehicle it's been tested in has been a boat.  And that was three years ago.

I don't get it.  What's wrong with the products that they don't have any partners or customers?



 


 


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