Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 64030 times)

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Online Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1675 on: August 11, 2018, 04:26:10 am »
It's not rechargeable at all except mechanically, the round trip efficiency is pretty bad and the water in it continually evaporates. It's piss poor for general purpose use ... but Phinergy has supposedly shown they can make a system with sufficient power density to drive a car and a large energy density.

So it would be nice for an EV race car.

PS. military has used aluminium air and zinc air batteries, as well as fuel cells for that matter.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 04:29:25 am by Marco »
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1676 on: August 11, 2018, 04:28:14 am »
Now you are assuming electricity will be available in large quantities.

Of course I am. The number one way that America and the developed world consume energy in it's final form is through electricity. Hell, oil refineries are using an absurd amount of electricity as we speak. Do you think we're going to shut down the power plants and wind farms? In this post-apocalyptic, mains-starved world, where are you going to get gasoline?

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I'm also not sure about lower operating costs. This year I visited some schools where teenagers learn to be a car mechanic. None of them where teaching about electric cars. Only one had a Prius but they didn't use it because of safety reasons. This means you'll need to rely on a specialist for servicing your EV for the upcoming decade while you can take your ICE car to the garage around the corner. I posted it earlier in this thread: the maintenance costs for an EV are higher than that of an ICE based car.

Not to be combative, but saying something doesn't make it true. Those schools ought to adapt, and soon, because nobody's going to need their graduates in 50 years when all vehicles on the road are electric.

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I don't get where people get the idea that an EV has lower maintenance costs. It also has a gearbox, drive shaft, brakes, motor drive electronics and (usually) a cooling/heating system for the battery. It is not like an EV is less complex if you look at the entire car.

It's because EVs are less complex in terms of moving parts. Is an iPhone more complicated than a rotary phone? Yes, but its input electronics will probably last longer with no maintenance.

Do electric cars have any moving lubricated seals? Not outside of the transmission, if at all. Do EVs need catalytic converters, or emissions checks, or repairs on rusty gas tanks? Nope, because they don't have any of those. Do EVs need oil changes? Nope. Do EVs need replacements on anything in their engines, like gap seals, spark plugs, fuel injectors, fuel filters, or cylinder seals? Absolutely not. Do the brakes wear out rapidly due to acceleration and deceleration? No, because you simply use the motor to recapture kinetic energy and recharge the battery. I haven't met a single person with a modern EV who has had to replace their brakes at all, even in the mountains.

The mean lifetime of electronic circuits is tens if not hundreds of times longer than the mean lifetimes of mechanical combustion engine parts. The lifetime of brushless electric motors is hundreds of times longer than internal combustion engines for similar reasons; the maximum temperature anywhere is always <200C, there aren't any hot gases running anywhere, and there's little to no vibration or knocking of heavy metal objects moving linearly back and forth. There's simply less that can be damaged.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 04:33:13 am by a59d1 »
 

Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1677 on: August 11, 2018, 04:37:42 am »
The reality is the cost of owning a vehicle will probably not go down. The more efficient they make things the cost seems to increase regardless. I remember when the price of real estate doubled during the 80's because more women were going to work.  Now everyone has to work 100 hours a week to own a home. Nothing was really gained by having two incomes.
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1678 on: August 11, 2018, 04:38:36 am »


Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair


Well that doesn't seem like much compared to approximately fifty cents per gallon tax on gasoline.  That would have to go up considerably.

One might expect the government could curb their spending on pollution remediation and air quality controls once there are fewer polluting vehicles on the road  :-//
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1679 on: August 11, 2018, 04:41:59 am »
The reality is the cost of owning a vehicle will probably not go down. The more efficient they make things the cost seems to increase regardless. I remember when the price of real estate doubled during the 80's because more women were going to work.  Now everyone has to work 100 hours a week to own a home. Nothing was really gained by having two incomes.

In terms of inflation, we'd expect cars next year to cost $1000 or so more than last year, independent of technological improvement or whatever.  It isn't really that outlandish to pay a few thousand more for a vehicle that'll pay that cost back in a few years.

The huge jump in home prices in the 80s might have been related to the 15% rate of inflation at the time, and not "all the women going to work stealing our jobs". If you're working 100 hours a week you're doing it wrong, and if you're buying a house for the hell of it you're probably wasting your money.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1680 on: August 11, 2018, 05:28:28 am »
I don't get where people get the idea that an EV has lower maintenance costs. It also has a gearbox, drive shaft, brakes, motor drive electronics and (usually) a cooling/heating system for the battery. It is not like an EV is less complex if you look at the entire car.
It's because EVs are less complex in terms of moving parts. Is an iPhone more complicated than a rotary phone? Yes, but its input electronics will probably last longer with no maintenance.
 There's simply less that can be damaged.
Please read more about how an EV is actually constructed. Starting by the thousands of welds in the battery. Overall an EV just trades in one problem for another.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1681 on: August 11, 2018, 06:09:35 am »
I'm very familiar with those welds and EV manufacture in general and I have no idea what you're implying here. Do you think spot welds are particularly vulnerable to some kind of thermal failure? They're the last thing that fails in a battery pack IME - there is literally no structural load on them. I'd take spot welds over a fuel pump any day of the week.

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« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 06:11:26 am by a59d1 »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1682 on: August 11, 2018, 06:27:16 am »
I'm very familiar with those welds and EV manufacture in general and I have no idea what you're implying here. Do you think spot welds are particularly vulnerable to some kind of thermal failure? They're the last thing that fails in a battery pack IME - there is literally no structural load on them. I'd take spot welds over a fuel pump any day of the week.

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One of my customers produces batteries for small electric vehicles so I know quite well where battery packs go wrong. One of their key selling points is their welding system and the quality control around it. Spot welds may seem so easy but there is quite a bit of science to it to get it really reliable. If a weld isn't up to the standards they scrap the entire pack. And if a weld fails in a pack they can recall the data for that weld and see if they need to tighten the tolerances. The reason they are succesful is because the Chinese manufacturers don't do this and hence deliver less reliable battery packs. After all a battery pack in a vehicle is subjected to a lot of vibrations and the cells are no exception. So yes, the spot welds do see quite a bit of abuse and have to be perfect.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1683 on: August 11, 2018, 06:30:59 am »
You know something no one has mentioned is what's in crude oil and refining.  In every barrel of crude oil is gasoline, as well as jet fuel, white gas, diesel, and long hydrocarbon chains/grease. 

It is very costly to break or elongate the hydrocarbon chains.  In the past before there was a use for gasoline the gasoline was a waste product and dumped into rivers to get rid of it.  So let's just say all ICE gas powered cars were eliminated.  Our society still needs diesel and jet fuel to function.  Bring up the questions....  what do we do with the gasoline?  Pour it into rivers again?


Someone research this...  But in every barrel of crude, 8-10% is jet fuel, 40% is gasoline, the other 50% is heating oil, diesel etc.

Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
 






   
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1684 on: August 11, 2018, 06:49:02 am »
You know something no one has mentioned is what's in crude oil and refining.  In every barrel of crude oil is gasoline, as well as jet fuel, white gas, diesel, and long hydrocarbon chains/grease. 

It is very costly to break or elongate the hydrocarbon chains.  In the past before there was a use for gasoline the gasoline was a waste product and dumped into rivers to get rid of it.  So let's just say all ICE gas powered cars were eliminated.  Our society still needs diesel and jet fuel to function.  Bring up the questions....  what do we do with the gasoline?  Pour it into rivers again?
Gasoline engines will not disappear overnight so it would be a gradual change that will be adapted to. Such as by the price of gasoline decreasing to slow further adoption of EVs. But it's clear that for the foreseeable future, plug in hybrids would be the solution to the range problem.
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Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
Wouldn't that make it easy to cheat by adding a trace of radioactive waste?
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Offline ez24

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1685 on: August 11, 2018, 07:46:04 am »
Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
 

For every fact there is a counter-fact

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/



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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1686 on: August 12, 2018, 02:09:12 am »

Quote
Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
Wouldn't that make it easy to cheat by adding a trace of radioactive waste?

Yes, but nearly impossible and it would be too costly.
The equipment used is a mass spectrometer.  It ionizes the sample under test and plots the mass-to-charge ratio.  Mass spectrometers are can detect the minute changes in chemical composition.  As an example, after the Fukushima accident radioactive isotopes have made it across the Pacific Ocean and are detectible in California wines.  So yes, it could be done but one would have to add the correct radioactive isotopes in the correct proportions with such precession a chemist with this knowledge would be able to make far more money making synthetic cocaine or enriching Uranium to make an atomic bomb. 
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 02:11:16 am by DougSpindler »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1687 on: August 12, 2018, 02:53:50 am »
Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
 

For every fact there is a counter-fact

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/


Thank you for posting - Not sure what to say/think at this time.  While I respect the work and answer provided by Snopes....  Professor Muller is an incredible physicist, researcher and physics instructor with an impeccable reputation.  I have spent some time researching because I’m not sure who to believe. 
In my mind Snopes did an excellent job in researching this question.  But then Professor Muller is known for his honestly in impeccable research.  For example, Professor Muller investigated Saddam Hussein’s ability to produce nuclear weapons after we attached.  What Muller and other physicists found was the lies and faulty intelligence the United States government told citizens.  Yes, Saddam was having Uranium enriched to create a bomb, but what Muller and the other Physicists found was the method being used was the least efficient of the three methods.  Yes, he had some weapons grade Uranium but not enough.  It was going to take him another 25-30 years before there would be enough for just one bomb.  By that time Saddam would be dead.
Professor Mullers’ research climate change is the best we have.  Muller was funded by the Koch Brothers to research global warming/climate change.  Muller admits he was a skeptic on climate change and did not think it was occurring.  But then he said he hadn’t really looked at the evidence.

It’s hard for me to believe Muller would make something like this up.

I do have both of his books and unfortunately, he doesn’t give any references or sources for his claim.  One question I have is why didn’t Snopes ask Muller?  (Seems odd to me.)  Muller’s UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab email addresses are easily found on the web.
I’m so wanting to know what the answer guess I’m going to send an email to Professor Muller and ask him.  I will let you know what I find.
Again, thanks for posting the Snopes reference.


http://physics.berkeley.edu/people/faculty/richard-muller
http://muller.lbl.gov/

« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 04:56:57 am by DougSpindler »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1688 on: August 12, 2018, 04:28:15 am »
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/
Reading the article you have to conclude that alcoholic beverages should be radio-active unless the label says it contains synthetic alcohol. But it is only an indirect requirement from the law because at this moment the radio-activity is the only way to determine whether the alcohol is synthetic or not. This definitely is a grey area.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1689 on: August 12, 2018, 05:05:04 am »
If it is commercially viable to synthesize ethanol, I wonder how much of the ethanol used for fuel is actually made from oil and not from plants as they want us to believe.
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1690 on: August 12, 2018, 05:15:35 am »
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/
Reading the article you have to conclude that alcoholic beverages should be radio-active unless the label says it contains synthetic alcohol. But it is only an indirect requirement from the law because at this moment the radio-activity is the only way to determine whether the alcohol is synthetic or not. This definitely is a grey area.

Agreed.  I just sent an email to Professor Muller requesting clarification.  I will post his reply. 

I'm guessing here.  But I suspect this migtht have been a law between the 50s - 90s Professor Muller is talking about.  And Snopes did their research in 2000 later.  So things may have changed.  Don't know.  We will just have to see what the Professor has to say.

By the way his Physics for Future Presidents lectures are all on YouTube.  Here's a link to his Nukes lecture for 2006.  He is an incredible lecturer.  He was voted by the studnts at being the best lecturer at Cal.  If you wnat to know how easy it is to make a WWII eara nuclear bomb he explains it in full detail. 



 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1691 on: August 12, 2018, 05:25:46 am »
If it is commercially viable to synthesize ethanol, I wonder how much of the ethanol used for fuel is actually made from oil and not from plants as they want us to believe.


Interesting question.....  I don't think much and hers's why.  It's cheap and fairly easy to ferment large quantities of corm and turn it into ethanol.  But I think it has a lot of impurities which would have to be filtered out making it to costly.


Alcohol made from crude oil is effectively a waste product and is essentially pure.  (Since all of the other hydrocarbons chains have been removed.)  It's a relatively easy/inexpensive reaction to convert to alcohol or vinegar.  Interestingly in researching this I learned hospital grade alcohol is made from crude oil and not "natural"/recently living sources.

 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1692 on: August 12, 2018, 10:55:38 am »
Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero? 
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1693 on: August 23, 2018, 08:22:09 am »
Today I've seen they are actually building this near Frankfurt to power electric trucks:

It seems this 10km long test track is planned to be operational at the end of 2018. If they extend the system to the other lanes then cars can also use it. It would solve issues / lower costs when it comes to charging infrastructure, range and batteries.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1694 on: August 23, 2018, 08:57:04 am »
Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1695 on: August 23, 2018, 09:18:42 am »
Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why
This review isn't very objective. The author just doesn't like the looks just like Dave doesn't like the look of GW Instek scopes.
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Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1696 on: August 23, 2018, 09:22:05 am »
Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why
This review isn't very objective. The author just doesn't like the looks just like Dave doesn't like the look of GW Instek scopes.
Did you actually read it? It's not only looks but also performance. Small battery, high weight, slower compared even with any base model Tesla, no space on back seats, much higher price than Tesla. There is basically no reason to buy it.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1697 on: August 23, 2018, 09:25:24 am »
The people at which this car is targeted at don't care. They simply want to have something different then anyone else AND not get stuck when the battery is empty (which is a big plus compared to Tesla).
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1698 on: August 23, 2018, 09:26:29 am »
Today I've seen they are actually building this near Frankfurt to power electric trucks:

It seems this 10km long test track is planned to be operational at the end of 2018. If they extend the system to the other lanes then cars can also use it. It would solve issues / lower costs when it comes to charging infrastructure, range and batteries.
Over head power for buses has a long history, but its hard to find really solid information about why these systems are eventually ripped out of most cities. The "trolley bus" system in London was still functioning when I was a kid, and seemed to work pretty well. They ripped it out in the 1960s. Right now some cities in China, like Hangzhou, have extensive overhead power for buses that seems to work pretty well. Now they are going for battery powered buses in a number of Chinese cities. I get the feeling many of these decisions have more to do with fashion than engineering.
 

Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1699 on: August 23, 2018, 09:27:21 am »
The people at which this car is targeted at don't care. They simply want to have something different then anyone else.
If only some nutjobs will buy it for looks, no way it will be competitor for Tesla.
 


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