Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 50024 times)

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Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1775 on: September 14, 2018, 02:21:36 am »
Have you ever driven an automatic car down a steep hill? They engine brake.

Yes I have, and a Buick (hydramatic) doesn't, not at all in D, yes in L2 and L3, but a Mercedes Benz GLC does, even in D (but brakes harder upon lift in the "sport" setting).
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1776 on: September 14, 2018, 02:26:38 am »
Some cars with automatic transmissions can be push started.  I had a Ford with a dead battery and was able to push start.

Yep, most modern ones can because they're a sort of robotic manual gearbox with clutches, and hydramatics before the 70s could be push started too because were specially designed to be so, but the many many millions in between the 70s and the most modern ones can not.
 

Offline CCitizenTO

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1777 on: September 14, 2018, 05:41:32 am »
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

I work in a warehouse environment where electric vehicles are used (Ride-On Pallet Jacks, Forklifts and Personnel Transporters). The amount of time it takes to swap a battery could be drastically reduced and would allow a swap of a dead to a 100% fully charged battery in minutes with the right infrastructure in place. When the battery dies on my machine (basically drops below 15-20%) the forks wont raise anymore so you drive to the battery room and get a battery change. Takes them less than 5 minutes to pull the old battery and shove a new one in and I'm pretty much good for the rest of the day.

Think of it like the Propane Cylinder swap setups that are commonplace now. Do that and the electric car becomes a must have overnight.
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1778 on: September 15, 2018, 03:53:32 am »
Quote
Takes them less than 5 minutes to pull the old battery and shove a new one in and I'm pretty much good for the rest of the day.
it'S a nice idea, and useful for some markets like motorcycles.
Better Place and Tesla pioneered that idea a few years ago, but both found out that it's not really economically practical for normal passenger cars.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1779 on: September 15, 2018, 05:44:43 am »
Quote
Takes them less than 5 minutes to pull the old battery and shove a new one in and I'm pretty much good for the rest of the day.
it'S a nice idea, and useful for some markets like motorcycles.
This is already done for small electric motorbikes you can rent in a city. They keep track of the charge remotely and when motorcycle's battery is almost empty they exhange it for a full battery.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline jh15

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1780 on: September 15, 2018, 12:50:30 pm »
My s has close 250 or close to 300 miles range each morning. fully charged from 2 15 amp 120 volt receptacles in my garage. for a year and a half, have the 50 amp 240 volt wire and receptacles awaiting install.

Since not needing it yet, am reworking all the poor electric wiring that happened to pass inspection when buying our 1985 house in 2003.

Line and grounded wires reversed on receptacles, kitchen remodeling put way too many circuits on a breaker, found overheating wires on a breaker rated for one wire, but had 2, etc.

As of 2017 NEC, need GFCI on 220 now, although the Tesla has it in it's cord.

So no rush for inspection, and no worries selling the house down the road.

First couple weeks ran it on 120 volt garage outlet.

S Has more range than my Honda Element on a tank, and The S is full every morning. My E have to waste gas going to a gas station often at 22 MPG. S is equivalent to 100 MPG.

The S hasn't made a dent in our electric bill, and we use oil for heat and a small propane cooktop. Think the electric oven and air conditioners get lost in the dithering.

Brake fluid is scheduled every 3 years.

Differential every year maybe a quart or so.

Coolant for battery and a/c is low pressure and tiny water pumps, like those you might put on end of electric drill.

Try watching "now you know" on youtube.







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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1781 on: September 15, 2018, 05:42:35 pm »
The S is a nice car with good range, treally what an EV should be like.

One problem it costs over €100000 here, more then €70000 more then my current car that can drive 960km on one tank, and for €70000 I can buy 43.750 litres of petrol where I can drive 729.000 kms with or buy three cars.
Let me think about it, but I guess I can't afford to be an environmentally friendly driver at the moment. ;)
 
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Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1782 on: September 15, 2018, 06:40:38 pm »
Try watching "now you know" on youtube.

Wow, THANKS! That channel's a gold mine! We shall review the (80%) charging losses / kWh/km / kWh/mile figures now. LOL.

https://youtu.be/JpS1XoPYqO4?t=0m1s



(12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km



(15[A]*120[V]*1[h])/3[miles] => 600 Wh/mile = 37.2 kWh/100 km
« Last Edit: September 17, 2018, 06:58:30 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1783 on: September 17, 2018, 06:56:49 pm »
(12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

39.8[kWh]*0.2[€/kWh] = 7.96€, that buys me 7.96[€]/1.35[€/litre]= 5.9 litres (*) of gasoil with which I can drive the same 100 km in any modern diesel.

You've got nothing to say my dear fanboys?

(*) Shell V-Power is the most expensive fuel there is.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1784 on: September 18, 2018, 12:50:34 am »
 :popcorn:
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1785 on: September 18, 2018, 01:56:20 am »
(12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

39.8[kWh]*0.2[€/kWh] = 7.96€, that buys me 7.96[€]/1.35[€/litre]= 5.9 litres (*) of gasoil with which I can drive the same 100 km in any modern diesel.

You've got nothing to say my dear fanboys?

(*) Shell V-Power is the most expensive fuel there is.

If you watch the video, he clearly states that "it takes a while for that number to come up", plus it's to the resolution of 1. I would expect, and I'm sure the Model 3 owners here will tell you, it's probably closer to 4 miles/hr on a 1300W charge rate.  Certainly the math would imply

50kWh battery
220 Mile (352km) Range
14.2 kWh/100km
call it 17 kWh after charging loss

So let's sum up:

1. You're not really that truthful with regards to your electricity pricing, as the average price of electricity even in your country isn't 0.20, it's closer to €0.15 according to everything I can find, plus it's likely closer to 0.05 overnight as most of Europe has overnight tariffs.

2. The actual consumption of a model 3 is less than 1/2 of your 'calculated' rate (see numbers above)

So even using European (daytime) prices for electricity, it's still less than 1/2 the cost of operating a diesel


Here in Western Canada the observed cost of operating an EV is 1/10th of that of operating the ICE equivalent vehicle, which I have shown over and over and over.
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1786 on: September 18, 2018, 02:53:33 am »
(12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

39.8[kWh]*0.2[€/kWh] = 7.96€, that buys me 7.96[€]/1.35[€/litre]= 5.9 litres (*) of gasoil with which I can drive the same 100 km in any modern diesel.

You've got nothing to say my dear fanboys?

(*) Shell V-Power is the most expensive fuel there is.

If you watch the video, he clearly states that "it takes a while for that number to come up", plus it's to the resolution of 1. I would expect, and I'm sure the Model 3 owners here will tell you, it's probably closer to 4 miles/hr on a 1300W charge rate.  Certainly the math would imply

50kWh battery
220 Mile (352km) Range
14.2 kWh/100km
call it 17 kWh after charging loss

So let's sum up:

1. You're not really that truthful with regards to your electricity pricing, as the average price of electricity even in your country isn't 0.20, it's closer to €0.15 according to everything I can find, plus it's likely closer to 0.05 overnight as most of Europe has overnight tariffs.

2. The actual consumption of a model 3 is less than 1/2 of your 'calculated' rate (see numbers above)

So even using European (daytime) prices for electricity, it's still less than 1/2 the cost of operating a diesel


Here in Western Canada the observed cost of operating an EV is 1/10th of that of operating the ICE equivalent vehicle, which I have shown over and over and over.


Try the same calculations for the California/San Francisco Bay Area where I like.  We pay $0.45 during the day, and $0.12 in the evening for electricity and gas prices ranger from $3.25 to $3.95 per gallon.  (Depending on the station and city.)  Using that guys numbers at best case right now electric cars offer a savings of $800 per 10,000 miles.  At worst case break even.  But next year when PG&E raises are electric rates once again the energy costs for an ICE will be cost less than an EV.


The guy's math pin the video poves it.


 

Online richard.cs

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1787 on: September 18, 2018, 03:25:32 am »
Naturally you get different answers depending on what two vehicles you choose to compare and your local electricity and petrol prices. Here's another, based on real-world numbers in the UK.

My girlfriend recently bought a Renault Zoe, we consistently get around 4.7 miles per kWh according to the on-board display. I haven't seen hard numbers for the charging efficiency of a Zoe but 80% feels fairly pessimistic, let's use that. 4.7 mpkWh is 213 Wh per mile, scaled for input power is 265 Wh per mile. We currently pay £0.148 per kWh single-rate, it might be worth switching to an overnight tariff as we do the vast majority of the charging at night, but we haven't yet so let's use the £0.148. That gives me £0.039 per mile. We can argue endlessly as to whether we should include the battery lease as a per mile charge (as Renault bill it) or add it to the purchase price, but if we do add it in then we get to £0.119 per mile.

The car it replaced was a 2010 Chevrolet Spark. Real-world we got around 320 miles to a tank with perhaps 5 L left in the 35 L tank, I pretty much always put 30 L in anyway. My local petrol stations are currently around £1.35 /L for unleaded so those 30 L would cost £40.50, so £0.127 per mile. The Zoe just about breaks even if you include the battery lease, but it is also a nicer car to drive and doesn't add to the already serious air quality problem in my city. Yes she probably could have picked an ICE car that worked out slightly cheaper on per mile costs (including the battery) but the two are pretty comparable, and night time electricity rates are about £0.07 here if we choose to switch over.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1788 on: September 18, 2018, 03:30:18 am »
Still I'm not sure the numbers quoted for the Tesla are right. AFAIK the Tesla needs about 250Wh per km from the 'socket on the wall'. With $0.45 per kWh that brings the cost to $0,11 per km. With $3.95 per gallon and an mileage of (let's stay conservative) 35MPG = 56kmPG you get a cost of $0.07 per km. With an efficient ICE car in the 45MPG range the fuel costs go down to little over $0.05 per km.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1789 on: September 18, 2018, 03:46:19 am »
With $0.45 per kWh

This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 


(Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)







« Last Edit: September 18, 2018, 03:55:37 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1790 on: September 18, 2018, 03:53:14 am »
Still I'm not sure the numbers quoted for the Tesla are right. AFAIK the Tesla needs about 250Wh per km from the 'socket on the wall'. With $0.45 per kWh that brings the cost to $0,11 per km. With $3.95 per gallon and an mileage of (let's stay conservative) 35MPG = 56kmPG you get a cost of $0.07 per km. With an efficient ICE car in the 45MPG range the fuel costs go down to little over $0.05 per km.

There sure is a large variation in the cost electricity and gas around the world.  Even if the guy’s math is +/- 10% or even 20% he’s showing the energy cost for an EV and ICE are comparable.  And if electricity coasts continue to rise faster than gas, electric cars will be more expensive to power.  Now to be fair he’s not factoring on oil changes.  But then again for the past 20 years I change the oil in my cars about once every 2 years or every 20,000 miles.  So, for my figures add in another $20 per year on the ICE for oil changes. 


 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1791 on: September 18, 2018, 04:00:52 am »
With $0.45 per kWh

This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 


(Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)
But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes. With the distribution costs and taxes added I pay around 22 eurocents per kWh.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2018, 04:03:15 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1792 on: September 18, 2018, 04:02:05 am »
With $0.45 per kWh

This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 




These are average rates.  Please tell me how I can pay the Californa average rate you posted.  Today I'm paying more three times the rate you posted.

This miight be the average rate but how was it being calculated?  If you just average the six prices the electric comppany chanrges me over 365 days that is the average number.  But don't you think we should be using a weighted average and factor in the amout of time the power compnay chanrges for each of the rates?






 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1793 on: September 18, 2018, 04:06:57 am »
With $0.45 per kWh

This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 


(Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)
But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.

The rates published rates do not.  They also do not include the connect fees, and various other charges one has to pay.  That table just lists the average cost across each state.  So for example in California there are power companies charging $0.05 and $0.85 per kHr.  If we take the average that would be $.68 kWhr.  While the calculation is accurate, the calculated number is meaningless.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1794 on: September 18, 2018, 04:07:19 am »
But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.

Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1795 on: September 18, 2018, 04:10:53 am »
But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.

Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.

In California we have a connect fee/meter charge of $10.00 plus taxes per month.  For people who are connected to the grid but do not sell or buy any electricity with the power company they still have to pay $120 per year + taxes to be connected.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1796 on: September 18, 2018, 04:16:13 am »
So for example in California there are power companies charging $0.05 and $0.85 per kHr.  If we take the average that would be $.68 kWhr.  While the calculation is accurate, the calculated number is meaningless.
Nonsense. Your are just providing more fact free FUD.  Please tell me where in California electricity is $0.85/kWh.  And which city do you live in that charges $0.45/KWh.?

The eletricity rates in the large population areas of California (Los Angles and San Francisco) are much much lower than that.

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1797 on: September 18, 2018, 04:30:46 am »
So for example in California there are power companies charging $0.05 and $0.85 per kHr.  If we take the average that would be $.68 kWhr.  While the calculation is accurate, the calculated number is meaningless.
Nonsense. Your are just providing more fact free FUD.  Please tell me where in California electricity is $0.85/kWh.  And which city do you live in that charges $0.45/KWh.?

The eletricity rates in the large population areas of California (Los Angles and San Francisco) are much much lower than that.


Do you pay a PG&E bill in San Francisco?  I don't think so.  Just look at PG&E's electrial rates.
https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml  Specialy take a look a the TOU EV-A and EV-B rates and tell me how I'm not paying $0.45 kWhr?  Holly shit you are right, I was wrong.  PG&E raised rates.  It's not longer $0.85 kWhr it's on $0.862 kWhr. 

Dude take a look for your self and then sheepishly tell me you are wrong.


https://www.pge.com/en_US/business/rate-plans/rate-plans/peak-day-pricing/peak-day-pricing.page




 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1798 on: September 18, 2018, 04:42:20 am »

Do you pay a PG&E bill in San Francisco?  I don't think so.  Just look at PG&E's electrial rates.
https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml  Specialy take a look a the TOU EV-A and EV-B rates and tell me how I'm not paying $0.45 kWhr?  Holly shit you are right, I was wrong.  PG&E raised rates.  It's not longer $0.85 kWhr it's on $0.862 kWhr. 

What the hell are you smoking? Picture below is directly from the spreadsheet in your link and shows the most current average rates to be either $0.13 or $0.23 per kWh.

And according to this database the average residential electricity price in San Francisco is $0.15/kWh.
And that same website shows that in the largest population center of California, Los Angeles, the average rate is only $0.13/kWh.

And BTW -any price sensitive EV owner would be charging their EV primarily during the lowest (off peak) rate hours.

« Last Edit: September 18, 2018, 04:51:32 am by mtdoc »
 

Online ez24

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1799 on: September 18, 2018, 04:53:54 am »

(Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)

FYI

In San Diego Calif during Mar 2018 (stayed under baseline - used 332 KW)  the electricity rate was $0.15406  which is near the chart BUT I paid $0.24446 KW after a half dozen add on charges.

But last month when I used the AC for 10 hours and went over baseline my total charge was $045 KW

So my rate is .24 to .45 


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