Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 460298 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1875 on: September 21, 2018, 08:05:03 pm »
All this crap about torque, 0-60 acceleration times and high-end speeds is all BS when it comes down to figuring out transportation costs.  The comparison we are attempting to compare is the ACTUAL energy cost for transporting an individual or family in a passenger vehicle in an ICE vs EV.

Don't matter if you want to compare a Tesla with a Skoda or a Bolt with a VW.  In the end they both require energy to propel the car and the people in it from one location to another.  We are of course talking safely and at a reasonable speed.  Just as MPG vary between makes and models of cars and how one drives them, energy prices also vary.


To do this we have to use actual data points and not the BS MPGs the car companies scam and submit to the government.  If you want to know how the car companies scam the government MPG tests take a look at the video posted below.  So please not government, Tesla or any other car manufactures spin numbers.  Same for using average electricity prices.  No one person pays the average price for electricity.  We all pay a bit more or less, that's why it's called the average price.

So folks can we use actual numbers for whatever car you drive and the way you drive it? 

I will ask everyone to look at my actual numbers for gas and electricity I subsided in for the guy who did the 10,000 miles calculation for his Tesla and Pontiac.  Substituting the cost California PG&E customers pay for electricity and gasoline in place of his there is very little monetary difference between paying for electricity or gasoline.  Now to be fair PG&E has 9 different rate plans.  I am on one of the two EV TOU rate plans our power company offers.  So, for an EV car owner in theory this is the most cost-effective rate plan for EV owners.

With PG&E about to increase our electrical rates next year this is going to change the energy costs.  While ICE are a bit more expensive to purchase energy right now, next year when electrical rates increase EV vehicles will defiantly cost more power.  No question about it for Californians.






 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1876 on: September 21, 2018, 08:53:27 pm »
Quote
it's a future that's worse than the present.
Nope.

Yes, because the batteries we have are a very poor substitute for hydrocarbon fuels.

A statement like that, without anything to back it up

In my (real world, I own one) case:
The Upsides
  • 1/8th the Fuel Cost
  • Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs
  • Lower emmissions
  • Quietest car I've ever owned

The downsides
  • higher acquisition cost (will be paid in 50-60,000km)
  • lower range (approx 220km)
  • 1hr to recharge (on a fast charger)

I would argue that for city dwellers, the upsides far outweigh the downsides. If you have long-haul distances involved, it's probably not for you.  As long as you're driving less than 200km/day 95% of the time (which is almost everyone), EV is the way to go.

As for the "When will they become mainstream", the answer is approx 3 more years. 
3 yrs: probably 20% market share, and 20% certainly counts as 'mainstream'
6 yrs: 50% market share

I think the next big leap in EV adoption is going to be delivery vans. I already see UPS trucks that are CNG, and I expect pretty much every new city-based UPS/FedEx/Postal truck will be electric within 5 years. All of those Mercedes Sprinter/Nissan NV/Ford Econoline/Ford Transit Connect you see in the city, they're all next.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1877 on: September 21, 2018, 09:06:53 pm »
Quote
it's a future that's worse than the present.
Nope.

Yes, because the batteries we have are a very poor substitute for hydrocarbon fuels.

A statement like that, without anything to back it up

In my (real world, I own one) case:
The Upsides
  • 1/8th the Fuel Cost
  • Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs
  • Lower emmissions
  • Quietest car I've ever owned

The downsides
  • higher acquisition cost (will be paid in 50-60,000km)
  • lower range (approx 220km)
  • 1hr to recharge (on a fast charger)

I would argue that for city dwellers, the upsides far outweigh the downsides. If you have long-haul distances involved, it's probably not for you.  As long as you're driving less than 200km/day 95% of the time (which is almost everyone), EV is the way to go.

As for the "When will they become mainstream", the answer is approx 3 more years. 
3 yrs: probably 20% market share, and 20% certainly counts as 'mainstream'
6 yrs: 50% market share

I think the next big leap in EV adoption is going to be delivery vans. I already see UPS trucks that are CNG, and I expect pretty much every new city-based UPS/FedEx/Postal truck will be electric within 5 years. All of those Mercedes Sprinter/Nissan NV/Ford Econoline/Ford Transit Connect you see in the city, they're all next.

You are offering subjective data when the guy in the Tesal video offered objective data.  To do a fair compaision of energy costs to power both vehicals for about a year or 10,000 miles let's use the formulas the guy in the Tesla video provided.

What is the cost for electricy where you live?
How much is regular gas where you live?

We aren't factoring in the cost of the car, maitannce or anything else.  What ware are trying to compare is the cost for the energy to provide power to the vehicle for 10,000 miles.


 






 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1878 on: September 21, 2018, 10:17:34 pm »
As for the "When will they become mainstream", the answer is approx 3 more years. 
3 yrs: probably 20% market share, and 20% certainly counts as 'mainstream'
6 yrs: 50% market share
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure. I see mtdoc throwing numbers around like using 900kWh per month. In the EU 350kWh per month for a 4 person household is already a lot because a lot of homes are heated using gas. I used over 450kWh last month and I got a letter from the power company! I hope this makes clear that EVs will add a substantial extra load on the distribution grid in residantial areas. And then there is still the problem that a typical EV can't pull a caravan and the charge times are long.  Public charging infrastructure is still in the infancy stage. Try to find a hotel where you can fully recharge an EV over night. For example: On Booking.com you can find 1560 hotels in Paris. Charging an EV is possible at 59 of them. It isn't much better in other cities. Due to lack of parking space and ownership taxes people in Europe typically don't have a whole fleet of cars. Instead a car is bought based on 0.01% of the trips so the argument that an EV is good for 95% of the trips isn't going to cut it. It must be good for 100% of the trips or the majority of the people aren't going to buy an EV. Last but not least there is the resale value driven by the cost of replacing the battery which may increases the TCO a lot. Also let's not forget how the electricity prices are likely going to increase when fossil fuel power plants are being shut down. Besides that Hydrogen and bio-fuels are still in the race so the EV may even die a slow dead (again). All in all I don't see EVs becoming mainstream for consumers in the Europe for at least another 20 years IF it even happens.

Currently electric vehicles are only good for well defined use cases like busses, taxis, trucks and delivery vehicles where the charging infrastructure can be concentrated in one place.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 10:19:05 pm by nctnico »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1879 on: September 21, 2018, 10:41:08 pm »
ICE trolls are very active here.

Indeed. They all 3 continue to ignore all the objective, referenced data presented. And I see Fact Free Doug is back to his old ways relying on that obnoxious Aussie dude's videos.  :palm:
 
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Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1880 on: September 22, 2018, 05:52:40 am »
You are offering subjective data when the guy in the Tesal video offered objective data.  To do a fair compaision of energy costs to power both vehicals for about a year or 10,000 miles let's use the formulas the guy in the Tesla video provided.

What is the cost for electricy where you live?
How much is regular gas where you live?

We aren't factoring in the cost of the car, maitannce or anything else.  What ware are trying to compare is the cost for the energy to provide power to the vehicle for 10,000 miles.

Please see: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1881 on: September 22, 2018, 06:08:27 am »
...
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
...

Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

Lastly, You are kidding, right?
From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

I know a number of North Americans who drive electric cars, charge them solely at home, using just 1kW chargers plugged into a NEMA 5-15.  The charge available in 14-16 hrs that a vehicle is typically parked overnight is much greater than the average commute of a European. This website *1 implies the average Dutch person commutes on 22.6km each way.  Assuming a 20kWh/100km vehicle, that's less than 10kWh, or just a few hrs to charge on a normal household 230V outlet.


*1 https://www.iamexpat.nl/career/employment-news/more-half-employees-netherlands-commute-work

 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1882 on: September 22, 2018, 08:00:45 am »
[...]
California (3.49/USgal = 0.92/l, 0.48/kWh day, 0.13/kWh night)
Tesla: $7.73 (day)
Tesla: $2.09 (night)
Tesla: $4.19 (Tesla Supercharger 0.26/kWh)

Skoda: $4.05
[...]
Given the Tesla 3 competes against the BMW 3 series, Mercedes C, comparing it to the smaller Skoda is silly
[...]

Sorry, watt?

Tesla Model 3 4.69 m
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3
BMW 3 series 4.63 m
https://www.parkers.co.uk/bmw/3-series/saloon-2012/specs/
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 4.68 m
https://www.parkers.co.uk/mercedes-benz/c-class/saloon-2014/specs/
Skoda Octavia 4.68 m
https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/specs/
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1883 on: September 22, 2018, 08:09:20 am »
Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

Many live in flats in big-ish cities and park on the street so yeah, no access to any schuko that's next to the car.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 08:31:28 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1884 on: September 22, 2018, 08:13:30 am »
[...]
California (3.49/USgal = 0.92/l, 0.48/kWh day, 0.13/kWh night)
Tesla: $7.73 (day)
Tesla: $2.09 (night)
Tesla: $4.19 (Tesla Supercharger 0.26/kWh)

Skoda: $4.05
[...]
Given the Tesla 3 competes against the BMW 3 series, Mercedes C, comparing it to the smaller Skoda is silly
[...]

Sorry, watt?

Tesla Model 3 4.69 m
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3
BMW 3 series 4.63 m
https://www.parkers.co.uk/bmw/3-series/saloon-2012/specs/
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 4.68 m
https://www.parkers.co.uk/mercedes-benz/c-class/saloon-2014/specs/
Skoda Octavia 4.68 m
https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/specs/

And don’t forget the Jaguar E type. It was 4.7m long. Just as big as a Tesla!  :o

 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1885 on: September 22, 2018, 08:18:20 am »
LOL, I don't get it, @mtdoc ? This is a skoda octavia:



« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 08:29:48 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1886 on: September 22, 2018, 08:21:22 am »
LOL, I don't get it, @mtdoc ?

Smaller != shorter.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1887 on: September 22, 2018, 08:22:49 am »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1888 on: September 22, 2018, 08:30:22 am »
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1889 on: September 22, 2018, 08:37:26 am »
As there seems to be continuous argument over consumption numbers, here is a link to the Canadian official EV mileage numbers: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363

Stupid bureaucrats copy-pasting numbers: without knowing how do they arrive at the figures, it's ~ useless...
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1890 on: September 22, 2018, 08:38:33 am »
@mtdoc today's in troll mood  :-DD
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 08:48:13 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1891 on: September 22, 2018, 08:46:20 am »
that obnoxious Aussie dude's videos.  :palm:

Somewhat obnoxious maybe, but everything he says in that video is correct.
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Offline vk6zgo

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1892 on: September 22, 2018, 09:34:02 am »
...
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
...

Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

Lastly, You are kidding, right?
From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

I know a number of North Americans who drive electric cars, charge them solely at home, using just 1kW chargers plugged into a NEMA 5-15.  The charge available in 14-16 hrs that a vehicle is typically parked overnight is much greater than the average commute of a European. This website *1 implies the average Dutch person commutes on 22.6km each way.  Assuming a 20kWh/100km vehicle, that's less than 10kWh, or just a few hrs to charge on a normal household 230V outlet.


*1 https://www.iamexpat.nl/career/employment-news/more-half-employees-netherlands-commute-work

One of the previous owners of my house must have been a visionary ;D
I have a stonking great 3 phase power outlet in the car port, which I never use.

As 3 phase is quite commonly connected to Australian homes, (but not normally made available at outlets) higher performance chargers could take advantage of the better efficiency & power output available if such outlets were retro fitted.

I don't know if this is at all common in other 230/240 volt countries.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1893 on: September 22, 2018, 09:40:12 am »
...
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
...

Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

Lastly, You are kidding, right?
From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 11:23:07 am by nctnico »
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Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
« Reply #1894 on: September 22, 2018, 01:40:40 pm »
...
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
...
Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

Lastly, You are kidding, right?
From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
I have family in France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and England.
Only my mother who has a flat on the edge of the Old Nice would struggle to home charge.
These are people living in the countryside, suburbia and inner cities.

Of all the places I have lived (28 moves in 40 years), I can only recall two flats in Paris where home chargingwould have been impossible  - but getting petrol was also hard, the only close fuel station that did not grossly overcharge was on the périphérique, and that seemed to have a queue night & day...
Getting petrol before between 7am and 20pm was at least a one hour job.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 01:42:32 pm by gildasd »
I'm electronically illiterate
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1895 on: September 22, 2018, 05:22:52 pm »
ICE trolls are very active here.

Indeed. They all 3 continue to ignore all the objective, referenced data presented. And I see Fact Free Doug is back to his old ways relying on that obnoxious Aussie dude's videos.  :palm:

And what's wrong with the information presented in his videos?   You have failed to rebut anything he has stated with any credible evidence. 
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 07:35:30 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1896 on: September 22, 2018, 06:28:56 pm »
You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1897 on: September 22, 2018, 07:58:26 pm »
You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.

That's not correct in the for most of the largest populated cites in the US.  Might be true for New York which is the largest populated city in the US, but it certainly isn't true for #2, #4, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10 most populated cities in the US.  Not sure about #3 and #5.  Just try an live in any West Coast large city without a car.  Appears you've never been to LA, San Jose/Silicon Valley, San Francisco Bay Area.  Just try and get around or hold onto a job without a car.  Typical travel time to see a doctor in the San Francisco using public transpiration is 3-4 hours.  With a car 40-60 minutes.

Cities like San Francisco and San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose/Silicon Valley, Portland, Los Angeles/Southern California and many other cities on the west coast are water and land locked which making it impossible to build any new public transpiration systems or freeways.  Just as 150 years ago one needed a horse for transpiration on the West Coast, one still needs a horseless carriage to live. 

 

 
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1898 on: September 22, 2018, 08:35:58 pm »
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
« Reply #1899 on: September 22, 2018, 09:11:02 pm »
...
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
...
Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

Lastly, You are kidding, right?
From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
I have family in France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and England.
Only my mother who has a flat on the edge of the Old Nice would struggle to home charge.
These are people living in the countryside, suburbia and inner cities.

Of all the places I have lived (28 moves in 40 years),
But this is just a single data point. I travel a lot all across Europe and the common feature of most homes is that they are on a small piece of land. And I'm not talking about city centres but the suburbs. In general land is expensive in Europe so people are not going to waste that on parking space if they can park for free on the street. But even if charging at home isn't a problem there are still plenty of other reasons an EV isn't suitable. EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 09:13:02 pm by nctnico »
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