When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[DougSpindler]

People in the US should be aware the price of electricity may jump up by several hundred percent in the next few years and keep going up as we export our natural gas - (that will go up too) "until its gone".

That may change the economics of things energy (and heating) related.

Energy use at today's levels may become too expensive for many people.

They want to burn more coal but that may present a mercury hazard. Mercury uses up glutathione which will cause all sorts of problems- for example, disrupting "a novel regulatory pathway of oxidant-mediated Fyn/c-Cbl activation as a shared mechanism of action of chemically diverse toxicants at environmentally relevant levels, and as a means by which increased oxidative status may disrupt mitogenic signaling. These results provide one of a small number of general mechanistic principles in toxicology, and the only such principle integrating toxicology, precursor cell biology, redox biology, and signaling pathway analysis in a predictive framework of broad potential relevance to the understanding of pro-oxidant–mediated disruption of normal development".  Source: Chemically Diverse Toxicants Converge on Fyn and c-Cbl to Disrupt Precursor Cell Function

We should not allow MNCs to use up the natural gas we may need in the future, and shift production to coal.

Putting lots of mercury into the environment will also cause increases in conditions like autism.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790953/pdf/pbio.0050035.pdf

and

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790949/

Not only does the burning of cal release mercury into our environment, it also releases radioactive isotopes.  Our oceans have so much mercury in them we have been advised to limit our intake of fish which have high levels of mercury.

[nctnico]

I wouldn't worry about mercury or radioactive isotopes. SO2 from burning coal will kill you much sooner. If you look at the SO2 output in the west part of the US you'll see it is shockingly bad. Especially for a 'developed' country.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

There'an app for that: Electricity Map.

[cdev]

They really do need to stop using the sludge from fracking operations as they would salt on roads in winter, because oftentimes that is also radioactive!

I wouldn't worry about mercury or radioactive isotopes. SO2 from burning coal will kill you much sooner. If you look at the SO2 output in the west part of the US you'll see it is shockingly bad. Especially for a 'developed' country.

[jh15]

My Tesla S is equal to 1/4 energy usage compared to a Mustang muscle car. Plus, it s a luxury car, dead cow seats, and should happen to outlast a mustang.

Aluminium body, suspension and made in USA workers mostly 90% parts. A few crappy parts in mine are a Mercedes steering stalk that Consumer reports said sucked in the Mercedes.


the model 3 controls look much better.

[mtdoc]

It appears that despite all of Musks shenanigans and all the Musk hater, TSLA short seller gyrations, the model 3 is a hit and production has ramped up impressively. Tesla is smoking the competition and even some of the large short sellers are changing their position.

It remains to be seen if this will be too late in coming to save Tesla as an independent company but it is an impressive feat IMO given the forces aligned against them. I suspect a bigger problem is about to emerge for not only Tesla but all auto makers. Auto sales are collapsing in mass and the global economic Ponzi scheme is on the cusp of implosion.  Interesting times.

[f4eru]

Yep, even better, the model 3 was in september the 13. model most sold in the US.
Should be in the top 10 soon !

The model 3 now is to be compared to generic ICE cars from now on.
Other EVs are so far behind in comparison.

[coppice]

Yep, even better, the model 3 was in september the 13. model most sold in the US.
Should be in the top 10 soon !

The model 3 now is to be compared to generic ICE cars from now on.
Other EVs are so far behind in comparison.

With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

[mtdoc]

Looks like Citron was right. Tesla just reported blow out earnings.

Revenue, EPS, Revenue, Net Income, and Gross margin were all way beyond any analysts forecasts. Glad I'm not short TSLA. Stock is up 14+% after hours:

With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

If your read the Citron report I linked in my prior post, you'll see that they account for that.

[coppice]

With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

If your read the Citron report I linked in my prior post, you'll see that they account for that.

I read that, but it just says Tesla sales appear to be at the expense of other car makers, rather than an expansion of the market. We could have guessed that. It indicates the possibility that cars at a surprising wide range of prices are loosing out to Tesla, which is somewhat surprising. However, they fail to point out that those makers who have seen drops in sales of sedans potentially competing with the Tesla Model 3 have seem healthy rises in their sales of SUVs, so a shift in consumer preference might be what they are seeing, rather than a shift to Tesla purchases.

It doesn't seem to say anything about the point at which supply is no longer constrained.

[mtdoc]

With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

If your read the Citron report I linked in my prior post, you'll see that they account for that.

I read that, but it just says Tesla sales appear to be at the expense of other car makers, rather than an expansion of the market. We could have guessed that. It indicates the possibility that cars at a surprising wide range of prices are loosing out to Tesla, which is somewhat surprising. However, they fail to point out that those makers who have seen drops in sales of sedans potentially competing with the Tesla Model 3 have seem healthy rises in their sales of SUVs, so a shift in consumer preference might be what they are seeing, rather than a shift to Tesla purchases.

It doesn't seem to say anything about the point at which supply is no longer constrained.

I agree that they are just speculating.

Overall car sales have dropped off precipitously in recent months so that may account for those drops, not Tesla stealing market share.  Still given the drop off in auto sales, Tesla's Q3 performance is impressive.

However, I suspect that no matter what, they will suffer, as will all automakers in the months ahead.

[DougSpindler]

Something else no one has pointed out....  Are the top three selling cars trucks?  Eliminate the trucks and Tesla is bumped up to #10.  Love Elon or hate him with all odds against him that guy is sure kicking some ass and has changed the world. 

[DougSpindler]

Anyone know how popular Tesla’s are in Germany?  To my surprise at one of the fueling stops on the autobahn I noticed four (empty) Tesla fast charging stations near Frankfurt.  Would Germans’s even buy a an American Tesla when they could by a German made BMW or Mercedes?

[jh15]

When the Tesla pickup truck comes out, and Ford no longer making cars....

[nctnico]

Anyone know how popular Tesla’s are in Germany?  To my surprise at one of the fueling stops on the autobahn I noticed four (empty) Tesla fast charging stations near Frankfurt.  Would Germans’s even buy a an American Tesla when they could by a German made BMW or Mercedes?

On my travels in Germany I have seen maybe one or two Teslas. In the Netherlands they are common but in surrounding countries I don't see them at all. The distances are probably to big for an EV to be practical.

[f4eru]

Germany loves cars, and teslas are quite popular, compared to rest of Europe.
On the Autobahn, at high speeds, batteries drain fast, and the extremely good aerodynamics are a huge advantage, makin a Tesla the only long distance EV available.
And Germans travel a lot.

[free_electron]

The distances are probably to big for an EV to be practical.

Just did SFO to san diego and back. not a problem at all. Drive three hours, plug in a supercharger while going pipi and starbucks and off we go gain... topped of for the cost of a cup of coffee ( supercharingg is free )
Range is NOT a problem if you have a 80KW or more pack.

[nctnico]

Germany loves cars, and teslas are quite popular, compared to rest of Europe.
On the Autobahn, at high speeds, batteries drain fast, and the extremely good aerodynamics are a huge advantage, makin a Tesla the only long distance EV available.
And Germans travel a lot.

Why do I never see a Tesla in Germany then? In the Netherlands I can easely count two Tesla's when driving 20 minutes. I can drive from the middle to the south of Germany for hours without seeing one Tesla. Explain to me how Teslas are popular in Germany? According to the numbers they aren't popular in Germany http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/. Including 2017 more Teslas have been sold in the Netherlands than Germany. Plot that against 8 million cars in the Netherlands versus 46 million cars in Germany and you see where the reality is at.

@free_electron: that would add one hour each day to a typical trip we make With a car which costs 20 times more  I rather spend that time in bed or looking at something interesting instead of a gas station.

edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.

[DougSpindler]

Could it be Teslas’s are popular regionally in Germany?  I was just outside Frankfurt to the North which is above the Weißwurstäquator.  Could it be Tesla’s are popular once one is above the white weenie line?

I was a bit surprised to see 4 of 5 spaces for fast chargers where in California around San Francisco most I have seen is 2 spaces.  Future growth in Germany?   

[coppice]

Why do I never see a Tesla in Germany then? In the Netherlands I can easely count two Tesla's when driving 20 minutes. I can drive from the middle to the south of Germany for hours without seeing one Tesla. Explain to me how Teslas are popular in Germany? According to the numbers they aren't popular in Germany http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/. Including 2017 more Teslas have been sold in the Netherlands than Germany. Plot that against 8 million cars in the Netherlands versus 46 million cars in Germany and you see where the reality is at.

In the Netherlands the likelihood of spotting a Tesla seems to depend a lot on your exact location. Its a couple of years since I was last in Amsterdam, but while there were huge numbers of Tesla S taxis around Schiphol Airport, just a few km away it was rare to see one.

edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.

Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.

[nctnico]

Why do I never see a Tesla in Germany then? In the Netherlands I can easely count two Tesla's when driving 20 minutes. I can drive from the middle to the south of Germany for hours without seeing one Tesla. Explain to me how Teslas are popular in Germany? According to the numbers they aren't popular in Germany http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/. Including 2017 more Teslas have been sold in the Netherlands than Germany. Plot that against 8 million cars in the Netherlands versus 46 million cars in Germany and you see where the reality is at.

In the Netherlands the likelihood of spotting a Tesla seems to depend a lot on your exact location. Its a couple of years since I was last in Amsterdam, but while there were huge numbers of Tesla S taxis around Schiphol Airport, just a few km away it was rare to see one.

No I'm not counting Tesla taxis...

edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.

Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.

These are new and they are installing many more in 2019. In the Netherlands they are also installing more (new) Hydrogen filling stations.

[coppice]

edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.

Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.

These are new and they are installing many more in 2019. In the Netherlands they are also installing more (new) Hydrogen filling stations.

Who makes the cars? If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_vehicle they say only 3 hydrogen powered cars were being made in 2016, and things have not been updated since then. Those 3 cars are not serious volume production cars, and they are very expensive. They are part experimental and part compliance cars.

[nctnico]

edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.

Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.

These are new and they are installing many more in 2019. In the Netherlands they are also installing more (new) Hydrogen filling stations.

Who makes the cars? If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_vehicle they say only 3 hydrogen powered cars were being made in 2016, and things have not been updated since then. Those 3 cars are not serious volume production cars, and they are very expensive. They are part experimental and part compliance cars.

At least Audio, Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes and Toyota have cars on Hydrogen and several of these cars are for currently for sale. Sure they are expensive but the price is on par with a mass produced high-end EV. However the Hydrogen filling stations aren't installed to cater a hand full of cars and I expect the prices of the cars will gradually become lower when the production volumes increase. Having the Hydrogen filling stations offer the infrastructure to use Hydrogen cars and solve the chicken & egg problem.

[DougSpindler]

In the US I think ir’s Toyota that is selling a H2 powered. Car and offering 3 yers of free fuel.  With the technology we have we know Hydrogen powered cars can’t compete with ICE or EVs.  And that’s before we start talking about re-fueling infrastructure.  I posted a link to a well researched YouTube video on Hydrogen cars.  Look back in previous posts.  As I recall the bottom line with Hydrogen cars is they require way too much energy to produce, compress, store and transport the fuel then is availed to power the car.  The other issue is fuel tank size.  If an ICE car can get 350 miles from a petro fuel tank, a Hydrogen powered car would need a tank 4-5 times the size to travel same miles. 

Until we find a way to break the laws of Physics and Thermodynamics Hydrogen cars will never be viable solution.

[coppice]

In the US I think ir’s Toyota that is selling a H2 powered. Car and offering 3 yers of free fuel.

I think the Toyota Mirai, Honda Clarity and Hyundai ix35 are all available in the US. However, they are only available in a few places, like California, and only in small numbers. because they are loss makers which exist only as compliance cars. Mercedes have demoed the GLC F-Cell and Audi have demoed the H-Tron Quattro. I've never seen a clear indication whether either of these will ever come to market. Although BMW had demo cars quite a long time ago, which ran an ICE engine from hydrogen, I haven't seen any recent activity from them.