When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[CatalinaWOW]

Same old story.  People telling other people why they are wrong.  Which boils down to people telling other people that the way they have chosen to live is the best way of living.  Which is always subjective regardless of the facts marshalled to support them.

Fact is EVs can satisfy the bulk of actual trips.  As can high fuel economy conventional vehicles.  But there are other reasons why people drive cars than just being the most efficient for most trips.  Bicycles are actually most efficient for most trips, but they don't satisfy some of those other reasons.

One more use case why it will be a while before I buy an EV.  I keep my vehicle costs low by buying used vehicles and driving them a long time.  My vehicles tend to have several hundred thousand miles before I let them go.  So license fees, insurance costs and depreciation are all near zero.  Economy is not as good as I could get in a newer vehicle, but that doesn't overwhelm the other savings.

So I am not going to be getting into the EV business before they start hitting the used market in meaningful numbers.  If the durability that is touted for EVs is correct, that may be a long time.  A Tesla Model X actually works pretty well for me but I just can't  bring myself to part with well over 80K for a vehicle.  That number would pay purchase and all expenses, gas and everything else for decades of the types of vehicles I drive.

[NiHaoMike]

Not quite.  In the Pacific Northwest they have storms which knock out the power for a week.  No electricity can't drive the car.

Or what about in California where we are having wildfires.  Drive home and hope to charge the batteries at night but a wild fire knocks out the power to a neighborhood.  Car's not getting charged.  Then the police tell everyone to evacuate and you jump in you car to find the batteries haven't been charged.  Now you are toast.

Ask residents of hurricane prone areas how well they fared with gas stations running out of gas. A plug in hybrid would be the best solution for that sort of emergency - being able to use either gas or electricity gives a lot of flexibility.

[tszaboo]

That old crap again  People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

I really hope you use a RV for the daily commute, because "Once a year we go to France" and you prefer sleeping in an uncomfortable bed instead of a Hotel.

[richard.cs]

That old crap again  People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

If that is the kind of journeys you do by car then don't buy an EV, but don't assume that your usage is representative off all other drivers. For example at age 31 the longest single-day journey I have driven or been a car passenger in is 532 miles (Fort William to Southampton, in current traffic about 9 hours 40 minutes), and I have no intention of repeating it. Subsequent trips have had, and likely always will have, an overnight stop. I know some people (especially Americans) consider this short distance, but for me, and a good fraction of other British people this is generally considered to be the sensible upper limit for a single day's driving.

In that trip (with a diesel car) we had two stops, in one of those the driver had an hour's nap, and in the other we stopped for perhaps 45 minutes for a meal. I would have preferred more stops in any case, but that's what we did. Total ICE journey time around 9h40m +1h0m + 0h45m = 11h25m. Taking your e-Golf numbers that ~850 km would require 4 stops of 30 minutes. Total journey time would be 9h40m + 4*0h30m =  11h40m. I don't consider an extra 15 minutes on an 11+ hour journey to be significant. That 15 minutes ignored that the final charge could be shorter, and I also ignored that we also stopped once to buy diesel.

Sure, you might drive further or care about that 15 minutes, but huge numbers of people don't, huge numbers of people already like to stop for more than 30 minutes every 2 hours. Those people form a market for whom the current generation of EVs are entirely suitable. If you're not one of them don't buy an EV, buy a diesel BMW.

[DougSpindler]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.

Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range

That old crap again  People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

Simple - Just rent an EV with longer range.

[nctnico]

That old crap again  People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

If that is the kind of journeys you do by car then don't buy an EV, but don't assume that your usage is representative off all other drivers. For example at age 31 the longest single-day journey I have driven or been a car passenger in is 532 miles (Fort William to Southampton, in current traffic about 9 hours 40 minutes),

Try to follow the news. During the summer holidays the highways of mainland Europe are constipated due to the millions of people using their car to go to their holiday destination abroad. Tell all of them to use an EV and watch their reaction.

[DougSpindler]

So manybe Germans’s can’t get the range on VWs......  But American’s sure can with VWs.
Just look at what “we” can do to a “Thing”.  In the US VW sold these WW II reproductions as a VW Thing.


https://youtu.be/2Xo-bECQGqE


And here’s an old look at a Tesla

https://youtu.be/cMlfBKd_hz8

[richard.cs]

Try to follow the news. During the summer holidays the highways of mainland Europe are constipated due to the millions of people using their car to go to their holiday destination abroad. Tell all of them to use an EV and watch their reaction.

The population of mainland Europe is ~700 million, if there are millions of people who want to drive thousands of miles a few times a year so what? It might mean EVs are (currently) unsuitable for 10 million or even 100 million people. Does that somehow mean that there are zero people who just don't have that as a requirement when selecting a car? Zero people who already take longer breaks when driving, zero people who prefer to fly or take the train when going thousands of miles, zero people who just don't do more than 500 miles in a day in their ICE cars? Heavy traffic in summer tells you nothing about whether or not there is a meaningfully-sized market of people for whom EV range is adequate.

[boffin]

Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait

Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.

I like the way you selectively grabbed information to claim the 120km range.  The author states that @ 130kmh into a headwind the range drops to 120km; and of course it does. The air resistance at 160kmph (130 + 30) air speed is 4x what it is at 80, and about double what it is at 115.  I think you'd find your petrol/diesel consumption would go up similar amounts at high speeds into a significant headwind too. 

On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.

  The mileage does drop, in exactly the same way, in an ICE car at high speed, just like it does with an EV.  And, a headwind adds even more effective speed you're pushing against.

It's pretty easy to understand why....  The laws of Newtonian Physics apply themselves agnostically, not caring if the vehicle is ICE or EV.  Friction is Friction, and it requires energy to overcome, and not surprisingly the amount required to overcome increases by exactly the same amount EV or ICE.

As for the use of Air Con and/or heating in an EV, they consume just over 1kW (fixed) when turned up to max (I think I've seen 1.3) my real world results, which is well under 10% of normal driving consumption (around 15-16kW ) being used to heat/cool a car.  Yes, it will affect your range by perhaps 10%; similar to what it can in an ICE car.

An eGolf does have only a moderately sized battery (35kWh), vs some of the (Tesla 75-100kWh) competition. It is however, perfect for the vast majority of vehicle trips by the vast majority of the population as other people in here keep showing using hard facts.

Owning an automobile which fulfils the vast majority of my needs is much cheaper than trying to purchase and own something that fulfils every possible need every time. By your logic, everyone would own oversized minivans that seat 12 and carry 2 tonnes, because occasionally they may need to haul move house, or carry 12 people.

[mtdoc]

Owning an automobile which fulfils the vast majority of my needs is much cheaper than trying to purchase and own something that fulfils every possible need every time. By your logic, everyone would own oversized minivans that seat 12 and carry 2 tonnes, because occasionally they may need to haul move house, or carry 12 people.

Exactly.  It's like the people who buy large SUVs because twice a year they go to the mountains go skiing....

Those who make this argument against EVs remind me of people 20 years ago saying that DSOs would never be mainstream because an analog scope will always be better for <insert niche application here>

[boffin]

Not quite.  In the Pacific Northwest they have storms which knock out the power for a week.  No electricity can't drive the car.

Or what about in California where we are having wildfires.  Drive home and hope to charge the batteries at night but a wild fire knocks out the power to a neighborhood.  Car's not getting charged.  Then the police tell everyone to evacuate and you jump in you car to find the batteries haven't been charged.  Now you are toast.

Ask residents of hurricane prone areas how well they fared with gas stations running out of gas. A plug in hybrid would be the best solution for that sort of emergency - being able to use either gas or electricity gives a lot of flexibility.

It also takes electricity to pump gas; and most gasoline providers have no way to pump it if there's no electricity.

[vk6zgo]

Owning an automobile which fulfils the vast majority of my needs is much cheaper than trying to purchase and own something that fulfils every possible need every time. By your logic, everyone would own oversized minivans that seat 12 and carry 2 tonnes, because occasionally they may need to haul move house, or carry 12 people.

Exactly.  It's like the people who buy large SUVs because twice a year they go to the mountains go skiing....

Those who make this argument against EVs remind me of people 20 years ago saying that DSOs would never be mainstream because an analog scope will always be better for <insert niche application here>

EVs are more advanced now than 20year old DSOs were.

What are now "niche applications" were mainstream then, & the applications that suited DSOs well were
pretty much "niche" ones.
Interestingly, DSOs have, over the years, become more "analog like" in their UIs, forsaking the old
"We are digital, we are wonderful, live with it" shtick.

EVs, to their credit, do try to make the user changeover fairly seamless.

[DougSpindler]

Interesting interview with Ford’s new CEO.  http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/#disqus_thread
Ford’s new CEO is saying car sales are down word wiide.  They will be discontinuing all sedans and focus on F-150 trucks and muscle cars like the Mustang.  Ford is also looking at merging with VW or maybe it was the otherway around.  Ford is saying companies like Tesla have really disrupted the ICE car industry. 

Other thing he said was Ford 100 years ago was building electric cars in partnership with Thomas Edison.  Would have liked to hear more about that partnership.

Hard to beleive a car company such as Ford is imploding and is trying to reinvent itself as a tech company.....  Fat chance.  If they dummies were smar they would buy Tesla.

[nctnico]

It is all about convenience of use.

Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.

Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range

By your reasoning you'd be perfectly happy with a roof over your home which leaks when it is raining very hard. After all it only rains very hard a few times per year. Or a phone which drops 2 out of 100 calls. Or a tyre you need to inflate every week due to a small leak. Need I go on or do you finally get it?

[mtdoc]

 

Right, because people will chose to buy leaky roofs 2.1 million times in 2018.
Both EVs and ICE cars have shortcomings but EVs are the future.

Your analogies don’t hold water. You lost this argument a long time ago. You must just be too soggy to realize it. 

[ebastler]

By your reasoning you'd be perfectly happy with a roof over your home which leaks when it is raining very hard. After all it only rains very hard a few times per year. Or a phone which drops 2 out of 100 calls. Or a tyre you need to inflate every week due to a small leak. Need I go on or do you finally get it?

Your analogies are slightly besides the point, and you are probably aware of it. In contrast to a home confronted with a sudden heavy rainfall, or a phone call with random connection drops, I can plan ahead for a long car trip and rent a suitable vehicle for longer distances or larger transports.

Believe it or not, people are actually doing that routinely: They choose not to drive a truck for everyday use, but a small city car. And when they need to transport large items once in a while, they rent a larger car or truck. Or, if you prefer you phone example: I don't use a satellite phone for daily use, since GSM covers my daily needs. If I should ever have the desire for a trip across a desert, I will probably rent a satellite phone.

[DougSpindler]

According to Ford’s new CEO Tesla, millennials, EVsn ad self driving cars have disrupted the ICE car companies.  Surprised no one has posted this yet.

Globally car sales are down....  way down.   Ford plans on discontinuing sales of all cars with the exception of F-150 trucks and Mustangs. 

Ford want’s to become a Tech company like Facebook and Tesla.  Why the heck doen’t Ford buy Tesla?  (The merger of course would never work.  Ford management will never get it.)
And Ford and VW are talking about a merger.  In the past it was GM with the Japanese and now it’s Ford with the Germans.

Andre here’s an interesting tidbit......   Thomas Edison was working with Henry Ford 100 years ago on Eletric cars.  Wonder what happened.

When will Electric Cars become mainstream. A lot faster than what the big car companies were hoping.  If one of the world’s big three automakers is scared and changing direction you had better beleive change in happing much faster that we could ever imagine. .   

http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/

[ebastler]

Globally car sales are down....  way down.   

Really?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/

Or do you mean Ford's car sales?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/380104/global-vehicle-sales-of-ford/

[coppice]

Globally car sales are down....  way down.   Ford plans on discontinuing sales of all cars with the exception of F-150 trucks and Mustangs. 

In the US car sales are way down, because in the US so many consumer vehicles (e,g, SUVs) are classified as light trucks instead of cars. To Ford, the F150 is not considered a car, and neither are all the SUVs they make for the US market. The migration from sedans to SUVs has hurt US car figures and boosted the light truck figures. In most of the world SUVs are considered cars, and the car sales numbers look pretty good. As far as I know Ford is only discontinuing "car" sales in the US. There seems no sign of them ending the sale of sedans, wagons and hatchbacks elsewhere. Although car sales in most countries are migrating to SUVs, it is not happening so fast that killing all sedans, wagons and hatchbacks makes sense for a large car maker.

[DougSpindler]

Globally car sales are down....  way down.   

Really?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/

Or do you mean Ford's car sales?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/380104/global-vehicle-sales-of-ford/

Did you listen to the podcast?  http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/
I’m just saying what Ford’s CEO is saying.

Curd hard to believe Tesla market cap is worth more than Ford.
 

[mtdoc]

Year over year ICE auto sales turned down in September (usually the strongest month). Historically, this has been a harbinger of coming recession.  Meanwhile EV sales have continued to grow at a rapid rate.

Overall, 1st world ICE auto sales have been relatively flat for the past 20 years.  However when you add in the developing world (esp China) there has been modest growth.

In all cases - over the past few years, EV sales growth has far,far surpassed ICE sales growth (if any).

My prediction is that ICE auto sales will continue to stagnate while EV sales growth continues its exponential growth pattern. Eventually, in 20 years or so we'll be in a place where the large majority of auto sales will be EVs though overall total auto sales will never again reach current levels. Globally, the economy is peaking.

[DougSpindler]

Globally car sales are down....  way down.   Ford plans on discontinuing sales of all cars with the exception of F-150 trucks and Mustangs. 

In the US car sales are way down, because in the US so many consumer vehicles (e,g, SUVs) are classified as light trucks instead of cars. To Ford, the F150 is not considered a car, and neither are all the SUVs they make for the US market. The migration from sedans to SUVs has hurt US car figures and boosted the light truck figures. In most of the world SUVs are considered cars, and the car sales numbers look pretty good. As far as I know Ford is only discontinuing "car" sales in the US. There seems no sign of them ending the sale of sedans, wagons and hatchbacks elsewhere. Although car sales in most countries are migrating to SUVs, it is not happening so fast that killing all sedans, wagons and hatchbacks makes sense for a large car maker.

Guess what you are saying is it is all in the definition.  The CEO did say they will be discontinuing all car production with the exception of the Mustang and focus on the product that’s making them the most money the F-150 truck.  I thought he said Ford would discontinue production of sedans as well as those were the least profitable.  But would have to listen again to be sure.

This is worth saying agin....  Hard to beleive Ford one of the top three automobile/sedan/truck manfactures market cap is less than Tesla.  Just means Tesla is perceived value is much greater than that of a one of the largest companies in the world. 

[glarsson]

This is worth saying agin....  Hard to beleive Ford one of the top three automobile/sedan/truck manfactures market cap is less than Tesla.  Just means Tesla is perceived value is much greater than that of a one of the largest companies in the world.

Not the current value. The market cap reflects the markets belief of future profits and value.

[DougSpindler]

This is worth saying agin....  Hard to beleive Ford one of the top three automobile/sedan/truck manfactures market cap is less than Tesla.  Just means Tesla is perceived value is much greater than that of a one of the largest companies in the world.

Not the current value. The market cap reflects the markets belief of future profits and value.

Correct.  Market cap i the perceived value....  Those were my words.   
Tesla’s perceived value is much greater than that of the well established car company, Ford.   

[nctnico]

By your reasoning you'd be perfectly happy with a roof over your home which leaks when it is raining very hard. After all it only rains very hard a few times per year. Or a phone which drops 2 out of 100 calls. Or a tyre you need to inflate every week due to a small leak. Need I go on or do you finally get it?

Your analogies are slightly besides the point, and you are probably aware of it. In contrast to a home confronted with a sudden heavy rainfall, or a phone call with random connection drops, I can plan ahead for a long car trip and rent a suitable vehicle for longer distances or larger transports.

Believe it or not, people are actually doing that routinely: They choose not to drive a truck for everyday use, but a small city car.

It is not about the size of the vehicle but the useability of a similar sized vehicle. The leaking roof analogy is therefore very accurate. Choose between a house with an automatic door + leaky roof or a house with a manual door which has a good roof.

Read every EV owner's story about their electric car and they all write the same: long trips require planning to find charging points, long breaks (great if you like to eat bad food at restaurants along a highway) but they all like to pull away faster from the traffic light. Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home. Is that progress? I think not. New technology should be better in every way and not a step back.