Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 77691 times)

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Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2425 on: December 07, 2018, 08:13:02 am »
Those are the incomplete facts and thus useless. You should add more 'It's true. Really' to your statements.

BTW if the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

Let me re-write your sentence, to show you how out of touch your statement is:

BTW if the battery ICE and transmission costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

Why do anti-EVers think that ICE engines somehow last forever, but batteries and electric motors don't.
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2426 on: December 07, 2018, 08:30:29 am »
Why do anti-EVers think that ICE engines somehow last forever, but batteries and electric motors don't.

They don't. They don't have the facts on their side so they argue dishonestly.  You did a nice job in your recent post acknowledging the area where ICE vehicles have an advantage (range/speed of refueling).  I have yet to see any of the anti-EV ers here acknowledge any of the several advantages EVs have. Instead the continue to make claims that have been proven wrong with actual referenced facts.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2427 on: December 07, 2018, 09:25:21 am »
As I said earlier, it's a religious debate, you can't win. You'd have as much luck walking into a church and trying to use facts and data to convince people there that your god is better than theirs, it won't work, their belief is not based on facts to begin with so it cannot be swayed with facts, no matter how compelling they are.

I was sold on the EV idea when the most conservative, anti-government, "everything is a conspiracy" right wing guy I know bought an EV because he ran the numbers and realized it would cover the vast majority of his driving, save time (no more gas stations) and ultimately save a considerable amount of money. We have people here acting as though EVs are some kind of speculation that some people think could maybe work some day while here in reality we have people who have actually been living with them for years and mysteriously not having all these problems that are sure to doom EVs in that alternate universe where they have not already caught on. Now that same guy, having had one for several years now his wife wants to replace her car with one too. He's going to keep his Subaru STi because it's fun but all the regular commuting will be handled by the EVs.

Now IMO there are still some compelling advantages to ICE cars, I think they're a lot more fun to drive, I love the sound of an engine, I like shifting gears, I like tinkering with engines and I'm extremely fond of my own (nearly 30 year old) ICE powered car and will keep driving it until something happens to it but I recognize that I'm the exception to the norm. If I were forced to buy a <10 year old car I would absolutely get an EV, no question there, the ability to just plug it in when I get home and never having to stop and fill up again is a compelling enough advantage to me, not having to do oil changes would be icing on the cake. It would meet at least 95% of my driving needs and for anything else I can drive my partner's extremely boring but functional Prius if I need range, I can borrow a truck from one of several friends if I need to haul something, I can rent a car if I need something special, these are all trivial options that cover the edge cases.

So we're back to the fact that it's a religious debate, people who *believe* EVs won't work are going to remain oblivious to the fact that they already do work and have been working for some time now. They will invent reasons an EV won't work for them and project those problems onto everyone else, pretending that the whole world has the same limitations they themselves have or pretend to have. Everything is an insurmountable problem to them, despite the fact that somehow other people have managed to come up with solutions. 
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2428 on: December 07, 2018, 10:11:22 am »
As I said earlier, it's a religious debate, you can't win. You'd have as much luck walking into a church and trying to use facts and data to convince people there that your god is better than theirs, it won't work, their belief is not based on facts to begin with so it cannot be swayed with facts, no matter how compelling they are.

You're right of course (and very well stated post overall).   I for one have no illusion of changing the mind of the couple of ICE only zealots here but seeing as this forum, of all places, should be a place were factual data is presented, I think it's important to not let the fact free assertions go unchallenged.  It's the same for climate change deniers or free energy proponents - you won't change their minds but responding to their assertions with the actual facts and data is important IMO (and entertaining).  Otherwise this forum will be no different than the plethora of fact free places on the interwebs..
 
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Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2429 on: December 07, 2018, 11:16:40 am »
So we're back to the fact that it's a religious debate, people who *believe* EVs won't work are going to remain oblivious to the fact that they already do work and have been working for some time now. They will invent reasons an EV won't work for them and project those problems onto everyone else, pretending that the whole world has the same limitations they themselves have or pretend to have. Everything is an insurmountable problem to them, despite the fact that somehow other people have managed to come up with solutions.

You're right in that it's not a logic based argument
  • Yes, they're unwilling to admit, that because it may not work for them, that EVs are a great solution for a large (or majority) portion of the population
  • That the answer to the name of this thread is "They already have", and that really drives them crazy because of #1
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Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2430 on: December 07, 2018, 11:26:07 am »
You're right of course (and very well stated post overall).   I for one have no illusion of changing the mind of the couple of ICE only zealots here but seeing as this forum, of all places, should be a place were factual data is presented

Presented, yes, but as the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Look around in the dodgy technologies areas, things like solar roadways and other sketchy things and you'll find some of the same people ranting against EVs defending various silly/demonstrably non-viable technologies. I have no good explanation for that except that some people's bullshit detector seems to be wired backwards. I've known a few folks like that, they'll believe in every bizarre conspiracy theory that comes down the pipe, but disbelieve all sorts of things that can be easily proven and accepted.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2431 on: December 07, 2018, 11:47:53 am »
Surprised no one has mentioned Chevrolet will STOP making Volts next year. 

With GM closing several closing many car production facilities the one making Volts is on the list to be closed. 
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/27/671090445/gm-will-end-production-of-its-car-of-the-future-chevy-volt

First GM accepts a tax payer bailout, then they screw the people who are buying their cars buying their cars.

Chevy Volt Quarterly And Monthly Sales Way Up, Chevy Bolt Rising

If you have been following our sales articles for the past few months, you know that Bolt inventories in the U.S. were weak throughout the entire 2018 model year. GM has been prioritizing exports of the popular electric hatchback, particularly to South Korea. So much so that 2018 international GM plug-in sales have eclipsed domestic for the first time ever.

As a result, between March and July, the Chevy Volt has significantly edged out the Bolt EV in sales.
https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-bolt-sales/

 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2432 on: December 07, 2018, 11:48:42 am »
I agree, it is a religious argument.  On both sides.   And both sides are putting thumbs on the scale.  Presenting data which doesn't reflect the warts.  Pointing out that many, many people have purchased EVs and are quite happy with them is somewhat like pointing out that their are literally millions of people in this country that don't own a car, and are happy with the choice.  It works for them.  But it doesn't mean it is a solution for everyone.

Borrow a friends pickup.  Yeah, you just need a friend on the other side of the argument so that he has one to borrow.  Not a problem at the moment, but it will become one.  Use the wife's car for range.  Again, works for the moment, but what happens when she doesn't want to stop at gas stations any more and buys her own EV.

EVs are perfectly practical for most uses now.  And they will grow dramatically in the market.  Though the projection I posted earlier is unlikely to happen, there are a number of factors that are likely to add a couple of years (or maybe more) to the equation.  And solutions for the edge cases will come along, but the ones suggested are temporary and local.  The other thing that will happen is that as EV's take over the infrastructure the infrastructure to support ICE will wither away, making them impractical.  Which will mean that folks will just have to give up those activities that don't work for EV's.  It won't be the end of the world, but some things will be lost. That process is probably a decade or slightly more behind the EV takeover.
 

Offline vk6zgo

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2433 on: December 07, 2018, 11:55:08 am »
Those are the incomplete facts and thus useless. You should add more 'It's true. Really' to your statements.

BTW if the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

Let me re-write your sentence, to show you how out of touch your statement is:

BTW if the battery ICE and transmission costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

Why do anti-EVers think that ICE engines somehow last forever, but batteries and electric motors don't.

Actually, electric motors do last nearly forever, batteries are another question altogether.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2434 on: December 07, 2018, 11:59:22 am »
I agree, it is a religious argument.  On both sides.   And both sides are putting thumbs on the scale.  Presenting data which doesn't reflect the warts.  Pointing out that many, many people have purchased EVs and are quite happy with them is somewhat like pointing out that their are literally millions of people in this country that don't own a car, and are happy with the choice.  It works for them.  But it doesn't mean it is a solution for everyone.

Borrow a friends pickup.  Yeah, you just need a friend on the other side of the argument so that he has one to borrow.  Not a problem at the moment, but it will become one.  Use the wife's car for range.  Again, works for the moment, but what happens when she doesn't want to stop at gas stations any more and buys her own EV.

EVs are perfectly practical for most uses now.  And they will grow dramatically in the market.  Though the projection I posted earlier is unlikely to happen, there are a number of factors that are likely to add a couple of years (or maybe more) to the equation.  And solutions for the edge cases will come along, but the ones suggested are temporary and local.  The other thing that will happen is that as EV's take over the infrastructure the infrastructure to support ICE will wither away, making them impractical.  Which will mean that folks will just have to give up those activities that don't work for EV's.  It won't be the end of the world, but some things will be lost. That process is probably a decade or slightly more behind the EV takeover.

We are tyring to perdict the outcome of an ongoing experimet while we are part of the experiment.

This is a clasic example of Evolution.  Instead of spices, it's makes and models of cars.  It's survival of the fittest.  There were a couple of times where we thought Tesla would be extinct.  Instead it's Volvo ICE cars and Chevrolet Volts.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2435 on: December 07, 2018, 12:48:14 pm »
I agree, it is a religious argument.  On both sides.   And both sides are putting thumbs on the scale.  Presenting data which doesn't reflect the warts.

Not quite.  There has been lots of data provided by one side showing rapid growth of EV sales and the lower cost of fueling EVs and none by the other that refutes this.  Of course all people have biases and will put forth their argument in the best light possible but when one side has no data and only opinion and continues to ignore the evidence presented without presenting any of their own it's rather silly. Presenting both sides as factually equivalent is akin to presenting both sides of the climate change debate as factually equivalent.

Quote
  Pointing out that many, many people have purchased EVs and are quite happy with them is somewhat like pointing out that their are literally millions of people in this country that don't own a car, and are happy with the choice.  It works for them.  But it doesn't mean it is a solution for everyone.
Of course.  I've seen no one here dispute that EVs are not the best solution for everyone. No one!.  That's not the question.

The question is "when will EVs become mainstream?"  As boffin points out, the answer to that is they already have.  No they have not become the majority of autos - far from it, but look around, all manufacturers have introduced, are introducing or plan to introduce multiple EV models.  The media is ripe with EV articles. As available EV options increase (trucks, SUVs, etc) growth rates will only increase.

It has been almost 1 year since this thread was started and in that time EV sale volumes have risen dramatically and the doubling time has shortened substantially. Numerous new EVs are on the market.  There is almost zero sales or new releases of other alternative fuel vehicles. Again, these are just raw facts.

Everyone acknowledges that EVs have some disadvantages compared to ICE vehicles and that they will not work as well for some people. That's not the question and never has been.
It's a strawman argument to present it as the issue.
 
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Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2436 on: December 07, 2018, 02:02:11 pm »
Actually, electric motors do last nearly forever, batteries are another question altogether.
Do you have information supporting that claim? Electric motors can have an extremely long life, but motors like that are quite big. Motors with a high power density often have quite poor lifetimes, due to bearing wear, thermal stress and other factors. The motors in electric cars are very compact for their power output. Its not obvious that they will have terrific lifetimes. I'm quite interested in what current designs are actually achieving.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2437 on: December 07, 2018, 04:12:36 pm »
Well the Leaf has sold large numbers and has been on the market for 8 years, I couldn't find any data regarding significant motor failures so at this point in time I'd say it's a non issue. I think it's reasonable to assume that like most ICE powered cars, the motor will last the life of the car. Induction and BLDC motors have essentially one moving part, the rotor and a pair of bearings. So long as the windings are sufficiently insulated I would expect them to far outlast the rest of the car in most cases.

According to stats I have found, the average life of a car is around 8-10 years, so using the Leaf as an example, the early models are getting up there now. I personally keep cars much longer than that but it's too soon to say how they'll do in the very long term. I suspect the batteries will be the main limiting factor, followed by the body and interior, the latter being an issue with most cars. I'm on my second set of seats in my daily driver.
 

Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2438 on: December 07, 2018, 06:32:37 pm »
Actually, electric motors do last nearly forever, batteries are another question altogether.
Do you have information supporting that claim? Electric motors can have an extremely long life, but motors like that are quite big. Motors with a high power density often have quite poor lifetimes, due to bearing wear, thermal stress and other factors. The motors in electric cars are very compact for their power output. Its not obvious that they will have terrific lifetimes. I'm quite interested in what current designs are actually achieving.
In my experience, on ships with hundreds of electric motors of all types and sizes, the most unreliable are the 0,5 to 3KW brushed AC with no electronic “soft start”. They are considered disposable.
Other motors have been running 24/7/365 for 5 years or have to suffer brutal load changes (pumps, propulsion or water cooling compressor) and have needed 0 maintenance aside from insulation testing.

Just say that putting all electric motors in the same bag is as silly as lumping Fiat FIRE and LS3’s together.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 06:34:20 pm by gildasd »
I'm electronically illiterate
 
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Offline MasterBuilder

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2439 on: December 07, 2018, 06:57:15 pm »
I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.

The electric motor is basically a solved problem and a well known quantity. Not to say there isn't miniaturisation and efficiency advances to be made, but I wouldn't be worried about service life. 
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2440 on: December 07, 2018, 09:34:05 pm »
Progress is slowly made :)

VW, the biggest car maker worldwide, acknowledged the death of the ICE, and even predicts a timeline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/vw-says-the-next-generation-of-combustion-cars-will-be-its-last

Now that's a hell of a shift.
A few months ago, Audi was still touting the natural gas ICE as THE future. Now it's gone.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 09:41:22 pm by f4eru »
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2441 on: December 07, 2018, 10:54:54 pm »
You did a nice job in your recent post acknowledging the area where ICE vehicles have an advantage (range/speed of refueling).  I have yet to see any of the anti-EV ers here acknowledge any of the several advantages EVs have.

Because I'm busy now, but I'll do it soon.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2442 on: December 08, 2018, 02:45:33 am »
Progress is slowly made :)

VW, the biggest car maker worldwide, acknowledged the death of the ICE, and even predicts a timeline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/vw-says-the-next-generation-of-combustion-cars-will-be-its-last

Now that's a hell of a shift.
A few months ago, Audi was still touting the natural gas ICE as THE future. Now it's gone.
However the car industry as a whole says that at most 25% of the new cars sold will be EVs in 2030 (*). Perhaps Volkswagen wants to move away from a competitive market OR they have to sell more EVs to compensate CO2 emissions from the high performance cars under their higher end brands like Porsche, Bugatti and Audi. In 2021 the average car sold by a manufacturer must emit less than 95grams of CO2 per km according to EU regulations. That is going to be a tough challenge because people are liking the bigger cars better nowadays.

* Dutch article from today: https://www.ad.nl/auto/grotere-en-zwaardere-auto-s-weer-in-trek~aa8fa9f6/
« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 03:12:49 am by nctnico »
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2443 on: December 08, 2018, 03:08:42 am »
Well the Leaf has sold large numbers and has been on the market for 8 years, I couldn't find any data regarding significant motor failures so at this point in time I'd say it's a non issue. I think it's reasonable to assume that like most ICE powered cars, the motor will last the life of the car. Induction and BLDC motors have essentially one moving part, the rotor and a pair of bearings. So long as the windings are sufficiently insulated I would expect them to far outlast the rest of the car in most cases.
Don't forget the drive electronics in an EV. Sure an AC induction motor (with proper cooling) can run on 3 phase power until the bearings wear out but there is much more to an EV than just an AC induction motor. Also car parts are engineered for a certain lifetime so expect the manufacturers to design the motors to have a limit on their useful life as well to keep costs low and stay competitive. All in all comparing a motor from a commercial EV to an industrial motor is not a good indication of expected lifetime.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 03:10:19 am by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2444 on: December 08, 2018, 03:43:49 am »
netInfo is correct.  Automaker are in a price competitive industry where the elimination of on screw increases profits.  And yes automakers design with statistical failure in mind.

Question I have is why are companies like VW and Chevy discounting PHEVs?  For many Americans this is style perfect compromise between EV and ICE until more EV changers become available.  California like Texas and many other west coast states are quit large with many miles between cities and charging stations.  PHEVs are perfect compromise. EV for driving around town, and EV/ICE for longer distances.  From the SF Bay Area we visit family in Souther Oregon which is around 400 miles.  With our PHEV we can make the trip in six seven.  Once past Sacramento, which we do not go through changing stations likes cities are few.  And for long stretches there are no cities, just gas satiations.  Not so sure I would make this trip in an BEV.

There are rumors it costs Chevy $70-$80,000 to produce a Volt (PHEV) and the govnernt is paying GM a subsidy of $40,000 per car.  (Not sure if this is true or GM propaganda.). I suspect that was true maybe for the first production year, but car has been out for 8-9 years?   

Or is this the “goverenet’s” way of forcing all of us to buy/drive BEVs?   



 

Offline james_s

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2445 on: December 08, 2018, 04:50:25 am »
I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.


That's an area I know rather little about. What sort of motors do big cranes use and how are they controlled? I always liked big machinery like that.
 

Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2446 on: December 08, 2018, 05:17:39 am »
I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.


That's an area I know rather little about. What sort of motors do big cranes use and how are they controlled? I always liked big machinery like that.
On the ships I have worked on, the electric motors are not in the crane.
Under the crane pedestal, under deck, on the tank top, electric motors drive hydraulic accumulators that provide the motive force for the crane.
I'm electronically illiterate
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2447 on: December 08, 2018, 07:16:17 am »
I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.


That's an area I know rather little about. What sort of motors do big cranes use and how are they controlled? I always liked big machinery like that.
On the ships I have worked on, the electric motors are not in the crane.
Under the crane pedestal, under deck, on the tank top, electric motors drive hydraulic accumulators that provide the motive force for the crane.

After Word War II America took "stole" two German cranes used in shipping.  One was used in Long Beach, not sure about the other one.

Google "Herman the German" crane.
 

Offline jmelson

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2448 on: December 08, 2018, 09:25:09 am »

Don't forget the drive electronics in an EV.
Well, I have not heard of many breakdown in this area, especially in hybrids like the Prius and Honda Civic hybrid, like we have in our family.  There were some issues with the battery controls on the Honda, and they had a LOT of trouble with the 2011 and earlier batteries (NiMH).  But, I have not heard of any failures of the motor drive electronics on either of those cars.  (I researched this a lot before buying.)

You can check online for trouble reports for these various cars.

Jon
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2449 on: December 08, 2018, 09:32:27 am »

After Word War II America took "stole" two German cranes used in shipping.  One was used in Long Beach, not sure about the other one.

Google "Herman the German" crane.

Amazingly it's still around, however Herman the German, is actually Finnish.

And Liebherr (the big crane people) are Swiss aren't they ?
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