But this is another thing I'm confused about. Is VGA signalling supposed to be between 0 and 700mV absolute, or have a voltage swing of 700mV peak-to-peak, where the minimum brightness level may not necessarily be 0V?
What Benta wrote above; 700mV peak-to-peak.
The TH7316 datasheet I linked to above even shows how you can AC-couple the outputs by adding capacitors between the outputs and the 75Ω resistors.
So put the pre-DAC RGB signals through a buffer first, then DAC and THS7316? Why are we level-shifting from 3.3V to a separate 3.3V? I don't understand the reasoning for that. And powering the output side from a 3.3V source wouldn't give me 5V TTL sync signals.
You are using a discrete two-bit voltage DAC per each color component. This means that the exact voltage at the I/O pin output is critical. A voltage level translator with dual supply and Schmitt trigger inputs yields very clean output voltages using the output side supply, even if the input side supply has some high-frequency switching noise (which you can expect when using a RP2040), for very little added cost. The local 3.3V linear regulator thus ensures you have the cleanest analog output at and after the discrete DAC. Using the same 3.3V source for the THS7316 means gives you the best chance of a clean output video and sync signals.
SN74LXC8T245 is a CMOS device, and when its outputs are driven from a 3.3V supply, the outputs are exactly compatible with (and have exactly the same threshold voltages as) 5V TTL. Powering a CMOS output device at 3.3V
definitely does give you 5V TTL output signals.
Sync signals are relatively low frequency — a few dozen Hz for Vsync, a few tens of kHz for Hsync — so you could use something like
NXP 74HCT2G17 for the sync signals, powering it from 5V. It would not change anything, though; you would just see slightly higher maximum voltages on the Hsync and Vsync lines, but the displays' input circuitry wouldn't care. (Also, depending on how the display input circuitry works, having sync signals powered from a completely different rail than the analog video signals, might be problematic: for example in the case where the 5V varies but the 3.3V does not.)
NXP 74HCT2G17 is a CMOS device with TTL-compatible inputs and outputs, so it has almost as strong output drivers as normal CMOS devices do.
For SN74LXC8T245, see figure 6.1: when output is powered from 3.3V, the output high voltage drops linearly as a function of output current, so that 0mA the output is 3.3V and 3.0V at 25mA; similarly for output low voltage, so that 0mA the output is 0V and 0.2V at 25mA. Remember that 5V TTL input high threshold is 2.0V, so even if you use SN74LXC8T245 at 3.3V, you'll still have at least 1V of headroom.
Actual TTL logic outputs are weaker. For example, with
TI SN74AHCT14, at 8mA output high drops by 0.7V, but it cannot source more than 20mA. If we assume the high voltage drop is linear over output current, then at 20mA output, powered from 5V, the output voltage is approximately the same as SN74LXC8T245 powered from 3.3V! Only if the output sources less current, is the actual TTL output voltage higher.