What you think you know isn't so!
A TL431 is *NOT* an adjustable 'Zener', and although it can indeed be wired to operate as a shunt regulator, in your circuit, it isn't wired that way. You can think of it as a single-ended OPAMP (i.e. it can only drive low and needs an external pullup to function) powered from its 'Cathode' pin with an internal 2.5V reference wired to its inaccessible +in, and its -in brought out to the Adj pin.
In your circuit, its acting as a comparator, comparing Adj to its internal reference, pulling its output low if the Adj pin is higher than the reference voltage.
With that misconception corrected, you should be able to analyse the rest of the circuit, determine its trip threshold, and how low the 5V rail must drop to reset it.
N.B. it may not be a particularly good circuit as its slower to turn off than it could be, as the N-MOSFET gate charge has to discharge through a total of 7.2K of resistance. A push-pull gate drive circuit could speed that up considerably, reducing the risk of it letting through a high voltage spike.