AVR availability is fixed now. To tell you the truth, getting into either is easy as pie. The choice between them should really be on which unit does what you want it to do. I like the tutorials on AVRFreaks.net and using avrdude, but both the PICkit and AVRISP/Dragon make programming a breeze if you use the native IDE's (MPLAB, AVR Studio).
Well, let's just try to get a atmega328p in the DIP package, very popular due to the
Arduinos.
Checking Digikey, stock is 0. In fact, I can't even get an estimated ship date for
10 pieces. Never seen that before.
OK, let's try Mouser. Nope. 28 week lead time, although they think they will get 10K
on 1/17/2011. Hmm....
Trying Newark, none there either. Lead time quoted is 69 days!
OK, trying Arrow. Nothing there, no lead time. In fact, they say these chips
are on factory allocation. Not a good sign.
Well, how about NuHorizons? No stock, 16 week lead time.
Compared to the PIC parts which you can practically buy at your local
grocery store, Atmel isn't doing so well.
Scott