Yeech, that's a bad circuit:
- 2uF shunting TL431 style regulator -- generally this is in the unstable region and device oscillates (mega noisy ref!)
- Insufficient bias current: I'd have to run the numbers, but with that relatively low divider there, it might not regulate at all; certainly not within tolerance.
- Chip ratings are not respected. From datasheet: "The ADC has a separate analog supply voltage pin, AVCC. AVCC must not differ more than ±0.3V from VCC."
- When external reference is desired, it's connected to AREF (obviously?)
KIA431 doesn't specify stable range, but most others do. Typically either very small or very large (10nF- or 10uF+) values are acceptable; inbetween values must be connected with adequate ESR, or other compensation scheme.
431 isn't a particularly quiet ref anyway, but neither is the ADC very precise, so it's a fine match otherwise. 431s are available down to 0.5% grade, or a few LSBs' accuracy.
Tim