EEVblog #1337 - I Bought An Electric Car

[sandalcandal]

I thought my point was clear, but allow me to rephrase. Teslas are not made for the general public. They are not commodity cars, and likely never will be.
When Ferrari (similar adoption rate) comes up with some new technology which adds 100hp, nobody cares!

The Model 3 and the speculated "Model 2" are example counter points to "Teslas are not made for the general public"

The Model 3 is a AU$68,000 car minimum.
Not quite the luxury car category, but hardly an affordable car for Joe Average.
No EV is really, unless your country has government subsidies for EV's. ICE cars are half the price of EV's, or less.

The point was about what market Tesla vehicles are "made for" and comparison to a Ferrari. The cost of a Tesla in Australia is high. The MSRP for a 2021 Tesla Model 3 entry range is $39,490 in the USA. A similar ICE car is the 2021 Audi A4 starts at $39,100. An "affordable" EV such as the 2021 Ioniq Electric starts at $33,245, only $6k more than the Tesla starting price. The cheapest new Ferrari is the 2021 Ferrari Roma (Starts at $222,630)

The speculated/planned Tesla Model 2 is $A32 000, $US25 000. Another source and another source. No recent official announcements apart from the initial battery day reveal however.

EVs are still more expensive than ICE cars but that doesn't mean OEM aren't targeting the "general public".

[EEVblog]

EVs are still more expensive than ICE cars but that doesn't mean OEM aren't targeting the "general public".

The car makers have been tragetting the "general public" with EV's before Tesla, e.g. the Nissan LEAF in 2010
The problem is, and will currently remain, the price of batteries.
The price of an EV battery pack big enough to woo Joe Average to buy an EV instead of an ICE is the same or more than the cost of an entire small ICE car.
Don't expect those prices to magically drop. The gigafactory promised massive reductions, and that didn't really happen. And again they are making promises and/or assuming prices will drop drastically, don't count on it.
EV's will continue to be a premium priced product for many years.

[gmb42]

EVs are still more expensive than ICE cars but that doesn't mean OEM aren't targeting the "general public".

The car makers have been tragetting the "general public" with EV's before Tesla, e.g. the Nissan LEAF in 2010
The problem is, and will currently remain, the price of batteries.
The price of an EV battery pack big enough to woo Joe Average to buy an EV instead of an ICE is the same or more than the cost of an entire small ICE car.
Don't expect those prices to magically drop. The gigafactory promised massive reductions, and that didn't really happen. And again they are making promises and/or assuming prices will drop drastically, don't count on it.
EV's will continue to be a premium priced product for many years.

At what price do EV batteries become cost effective?

Many historical stats\forecasts are showing the price will halve from the current cost by the end of the decade, e.g. here and here.

I guess we'll just have to come back in 9 years and see.

[sandalcandal]

The car makers have been tragetting the "general public" with EV's before Tesla, e.g. the Nissan LEAF in 2010

Yeah, that's been the plan from the start back in 2006. Focus on high performance sport cars then move down the market into affordably priced family cars.
 https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster. However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars.
[...]
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

There's nothing incongruent going on here.

The gigafactory promised massive reductions, and that didn't really happen. And again they are making promises and/or assuming prices will drop drastically, don't count on it.
EV's will continue to be a premium priced product for many years.

What "promised massive reductions" as you talking about?

As far as meeting plans and expectations: orginially back in 2014 Gigafactory 1 (Giga Nevada) planned for 35 GWh/yr in 2020 and achieved that according to this industry/academic talk from Panasonic: https://electrek.co/2020/11/03/tesla-gigafactory-nevada-supposed-to-look-like/

Plans in 2016 were announced to increase Gigafactory 1 to 105 GWh/yr and given they currently have 35 GWh/yr with 30% site usage that seems quite feasible not even including technology advancements and increased economies of scale.

Also Model 2 price target is a "goal" from my reading and the context, not a "promise".

[EEVblog]

What "promised massive reductions" as you talking about?

$100kWh was thrown around:
https://cleantechnica.com/2014/09/05/teslas-gigafactory-may-hit-100-per-kilowatt-hour-holy-grail-ev-batteries-report-predicts/
Musk himself said he'd be “disappointed if it took us 10 years to get to $100 a kilowatt-hour pack.”

Looks like it's going to take them double that time. They are currently at $US187/kWh:
https://thedriven.io/2021/03/11/tesla-leads-on-ev-battery-costs-despite-soaring-lithium-prices/
$100 is not even projected by 2030, that would be 16 years and still not there.
Commodity prices aren't going to magically drop, and inflation is with us to stay. They couldn't even meet the "disspointing" target when commodity prices were low.

[sandalcandal]

What "promised massive reductions" as you talking about?

$100kWh was thrown around:
https://cleantechnica.com/2014/09/05/teslas-gigafactory-may-hit-100-per-kilowatt-hour-holy-grail-ev-batteries-report-predicts/
Musk himself said he'd be “disappointed if it took us 10 years to get to $100 a kilowatt-hour pack.”

Looks like it's going to take them double that time. They are currently at $US187/kWh:
https://thedriven.io/2021/03/11/tesla-leads-on-ev-battery-costs-despite-soaring-lithium-prices/
$100 is not even projected by 2030, that would be 16 years and still not there.
Commodity prices aren't going to magically drop, and inflation is with us to stay. They couldn't even meet the "disspointing" target when commodity prices were low.

Let's be clear, he said he'd be "disappointed" to not reach a 100 $/kWh goal in 10 years during a Q2 earnings call in mid-late 2014. That's hardly promising and selling to the world that they WILL get 100$/kWh before 2024 as if he's trying to con the general public.

We should also note (in case anyone forgets) that cell cost and pack costs are different.

These "$100 is not even projected by 2030" estimates AFAIK are only coming from a single analyst source: Cairn Energy Research Advisors which appears to consistently give high estimates for Tesla's costs and give generous estimates for GM. The original report is also by CNBC which is known for heavy anti Tesla bias. Though even in this case, the relative performance to the Auto "industry average" is strong. Seems more like a lightly disguised GM puff piece to me.

May 2020, CATL (Tesla's Chinese battery partner) was cited by Reuters to have achieved beyond the goal with the help of Jeff Dahn at Dalhousie University.

The cost of CATL’s cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery packs has fallen below $80 per kilowatt-hour, with the cost of the battery cells dropping below $60/kWh, the sources said. CATL’s low-cobalt NMC battery packs are close to $100/kWh.
[...]
Battery expert Shirley Meng, a professor at the University of California San Diego, said NMC cells could cost as little as $80/kWh once recycling and recovery of key materials such as cobalt and nickel is factored in. Iron phosphate batteries, which are safer than NMC, could find a second life in stationary grid storage systems, reducing the upfront cost of those batteries for electric vehicle buyers.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUKKBN22Q1WC

Latest 2020 annual survey from BloombergNEF "Battery Pack Prices Cited Below $100/kWh for the First Time in 2020, While Market Average Sits at $137/kWh"


https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/

Lithium-ion battery pack prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 89% in real terms to $137/kWh in 2020. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF).

IEA has lithium automotive battery pack prices at 156 $/kWh in 2019 which matches the BNEF 2019 finding

IEA, Evolution of Li-ion battery price, 1995-2019, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/evolution-of-li-ion-battery-price-1995-2019

Mack Institute study: "the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US $161 per kWh"
https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/

gmb42 also posted some sources

https://doi.org/10.1039/D0EE02681F
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/batteries-storage/chart-behind-the-three-decade-collapse-of-lithium-ion-battery-costs

These are also industry average price trends not Tesla's cost and they are well below the Cairn Energy Research Advisors reports.

Bloomberg Dec 2020 "Tesla, the world’s largest EV maker, pays an estimated average of $115 per kilowatt-hour for batteries, according to the BNEF survey, down from $128 last year."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/electric-cars-are-about-to-be-as-cheap-as-gas-powered-models

Trefis "We estimate that Battery costs for Tesla vehicles have declined from around $230 per kWh in 2016 to $127 in 2019...We estimate that Tesla's battery costs are about 20% below the industry average, driven by the company's higher volumes and battery chemistry."
https://dashboards.trefis.com/data/companies/TSLA/no-login-required/pNkbHhrb/A-Detailed-Look-At-How-Tesla-s-Battery-Costs-Impact-Its-Gross-Margins

Bottom line:
Looks like they should get 100 $/kWh before 2024 if not already in some of their factories. <100 $/kWh has apparently already been achieved in least one partner factory.

Please consider your sources and try to avoid biased single sources.

Aside: AFAIK Tesla only uses CATL's cobalt free batteries. Likely due to CATL's weak conflict materials policies and auditing.

[EEVblog]

Call me in 2024 

[coppice]

Wait until the electric pickups start appearing - the CATL trucks.

[EEVblog]

Wait until the electric pickups start appearing - the CATL trucks.

Rednecks go crazy --> EV demand goes up --> even the gigafactories can't supply enough --> prices more like to go up instead of down

Tesla now only sell PowerWall's to people who buy Tesla solar panels, and thier reason is cited as the factories can't keep up wiht demand.
Add in inevitable increase in EV and home storage demand, and the supply issues aren't going to get any better.
And again, throw in inflation and a rising commodities market that's likely just getting started and the future is not good for lower EV prices.

[sandalcandal]

Call me in 2024 

Wanna bet? Every $ above 100 $/kWh in the 2024 annual survey I pay you, every $ below 100$/kWh you pay me can put a multiplier if on each $/kWh if its not enough.

[sandalcandal]

Wait until the electric pickups start appearing - the CATL trucks.

Rednecks go crazy --> EV demand goes up --> even the gigafactories can't supply enough --> prices more like to go up instead of down

Tesla now only sell PowerWall's to people who buy Tesla solar panels, and thier reason is cited as the factories can't keep up wiht demand.
Add in inevitable increase in EV and home storage demand, and the supply issues aren't going to get any better.
And again, throw in inflation and a rising commodities market that's likely just getting started and the future is not good for lower EV prices.

“Battery prices are increasing, not falling.” The two main arguments that battery prices will increase are based on sensitivity to underlying metal prices, and the desire of battery manufacturers to increase their margins. Let’s tackle metals first. Depending on the chemistry, lithium-ion batteries are sensitive to lithium, nickel, cobalt and aluminum prices. BloombergNEF’s Battery Price Sensitivity tool allows our clients to assess the sensitivity based on weekly changes to underlying commodity price across a range of battery chemistries. The sensitivity of battery pack prices to commodity prices is much lower than commonly understood. A 50% increase in lithium prices would for instance increase the battery pack price of a nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) 811 battery by less than 4%. Similarly, a doubling of cobalt prices would result in a 3% increase in the overall pack price. Yes, contracts may fluctuate depending on the underlying commodity price but not by as much as you might think.

The second argument has more recently come from a number of battery manufacturers themselves. Due to a lack of transparency around margins, in the Battery Price Survey we currently use price as a proxy for cost. This will not necessarily always remain the case as manufacturers adjust their margins and as we gain more visibility. If news reports in Korea are to be believed, Samsung SDI and LG Chem are in talks with a number of their automotive customers to increase battery price contracts by around 10% in upcoming supply agreements. Efforts from any single manufacturer to raise prices would appear to ignore the looming competition from competitors. These companies may be trying to defend a price premium that might not be defensible. They may either fail, or succeed and lose market share as a result. A more co-ordinated push across manufacturers to raise prices would by contrast look like cartel behaviour – and is very unlikely with the landscape as it currently stands.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/

Come on Dave, put your money where your mouth is 

[EEVblog]

Call me in 2024 

Wanna bet? Every $ above 100 $/kWh in the 2024 annual survey I pay you, every $ below 100$/kWh you pay me can put a multiplier if on each $/kWh if its not enough.

You are confusing me with someone who really cares that much.

[sandalcandal]

Call me in 2024 

Wanna bet? Every $ above 100 $/kWh in the 2024 annual survey I pay you, every $ below 100$/kWh you pay me can put a multiplier if on each $/kWh if its not enough.

You are confusing me with someone who really cares that much.

Aw come on Dave. Don't be a wet spot. How could you lose? I'm sure where ever you get your opinions from on the internet is much more insightful and reliable than the industry insiders, analysts and academics. Would you have any reason to think I might be an active participant in the space with in-depth knowledge? 

Anyway, I'm just winding you up There's no way I'd get more out from you than I chip in via Patreon over 3 years. 

Please check your information before you go spreading it. Especially if it's going out on the YouTube channel. I don't want to get too preachy but you have a platform, an audience and responsibility.

I don't intend to take this any further.

[EEVblog]

Aw come on Dave. Don't be a wet spot. How could you lose? I'm sure where ever you get your opinions from on the internet is much more insightful and reliable than the industry insiders, analysts and academics. Would you have any reason to think I might be an active participant in the space with in-depth knowledge? 

I don't intend to take this any further.

Yes, yes you do, your desperation is palpable 

[Ed.Kloonk]

Get a room, you two.

[nctnico]

IMHO future battery prices are rather unpredictable. AFAIK solid state batteries are about to be introduced which will cut costs and improve charging times (Toyota seems to be commited to using solid state batteries and not mess with Li-ion for their BEVs). There is not much sense in making predictions based on Li-ion batteries; likely Li-ion is going to be phased out soon.

[coppice]

AFAIK solid state batteries are about to be introduced which will cut costs and improve charging times (Toyota seems to be commited to using solid state batteries and not mess with Li-ion for their BEVs).

I thought solid state batteries were expected to be more expensive, at least in the short term. They are expected to offer faster charging, longer life, and relaxed cooling requirements, which are highly desirable qualities. I haven't heard anything about low prices, although the relaxed cooling might help with overall system cost.

[mikeselectricstuff]

I think solid state batteries are many years away - I don't think anyone has yet demonstrated a manufacturable, EV-suitable SS cell

[sandalcandal]

I think solid state batteries are many years away - I don't think anyone has yet demonstrated a manufacturable, EV-suitable SS cell

QuantumScape has been making bold claims and is one SS battery startup I'm keeping an eye on. Will see if they are actually able to deliver on claims. Still likely many years away.

[coppice]

I think solid state batteries are many years away - I don't think anyone has yet demonstrated a manufacturable, EV-suitable SS cell

There are limited numbers of systems which claim to be shipping with solid state batteries today. However, the ones I know of, like the Daimler eCitaro buses, have been problematic, and subject to recalls.

[EEVblog]

If there is one thing that seems almost certain, it's that it's unlikely that any manufacturer is going to be able to make an EV car any time soon that can compete with the price point of an ICE.
e.g. There are "only five" automatic cars in Australia under AU$20,000
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/best-small-cars-under-20000-78787
The cheapest EV in Australia is almost 2.5 times that.
Other countries may vary.

[timelessbeing]

e.g. There are "only five" automatic cars in Australia under AU$20,000
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/best-small-cars-under-20000-78787

... and I wouldn't touch any of them

[coppice]

If there is one thing that seems almost certain, it's that it's unlikely that any manufacturer is going to be able to make an EV car any time soon that can compete with the price point of an ICE.
e.g. There are "only five" automatic cars in Australia under AU$20,000
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/best-small-cars-under-20000-78787
The cheapest EV in Australia is almost 2.5 times that.
Other countries may vary.

There is basically just one thing making an EV expensive - the battery. So, there is only one area where innovation is needed to make a substantial difference to the cost of a car. When you need many innovations to change a market you know things will move slowly, but when only one innovation is needed there could be a breakthrough at any time. That makes the price trajectory of electric cars very uncertain. Most current electric cars aren't even trying to be cheap. With the overhead of the battery cost they bias most cars towards the luxury end of the market, with only a few models, like the Skoda Citigoe iV / VW E-Up / Seat Mii (all basically the same car), going for the stripped down approach. A single major battery price innovation could see a scramble for simple stripped down cars.

[nctnico]

If there is one thing that seems almost certain, it's that it's unlikely that any manufacturer is going to be able to make an EV car any time soon that can compete with the price point of an ICE.
e.g. There are "only five" automatic cars in Australia under AU$20,000
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/best-small-cars-under-20000-78787
The cheapest EV in Australia is almost 2.5 times that.
Other countries may vary.

There is basically just one thing making an EV expensive - the battery. So, there is only one area where innovation is needed to make a substantial difference to the cost of a car. When you need many innovations to change a market you know things will move slowly, but when only one innovation is needed there could be a breakthrough at any time. That makes the price trajectory of electric cars very uncertain. Most current electric cars aren't even trying to be cheap. With the overhead of the battery cost they bias most cars towards the luxury end of the market, with only a few models, like the Skoda Citigoe iV / VW E-Up / Seat Mii (all basically the same car), going for the stripped down approach. A single major battery price innovation could see a scramble for simple stripped down cars.

Likely a lot of BEVs are sold with a loss in the EU. It is cheaper to lose money on an EV rather than paying the (hefty) fines for not meeting average CO2 emissions.

[EEVblog]

This news just came out yesterday:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/964668/new-renault-5-could-become-australias-cheapest-electric-car-cmf-bev-electric-platform-to-cut-prices-by-a-third/
Still, an equivalent small ICE car is like 40% less than that.
And another cheap BYD claim:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/947563/2021-byd-ea1-australias-sub-35000-electric-car-revealed/
And a BYD van:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/956816/australias-cheapest-electric-vehicle-chinas-byd-promises-sub-35000-van-here-this-year/
FYI, BYD are the companu that made those electric busses I looked at.

Having an electric car option in the mid 30k range in Australia will make a big difference to uptake here.