Life Is Normal In Sydney

[madires]

Don't assume a vaccine is a total cure -not even for a second-. All the vaccine does is prepare the immune system for an attack. Less people will become seriously ill (and die) but there will still be a large number of casualties from Covid-19 in the next 12 months.  The difference is that health care systems are less likely to be swamped.

The trials of the different vaccines showed a success rate between 70 and 94%. Another point to note is that the Oxford and Russian vaccines use a problematic vehicle for delivery which works very effectively but only once, because your body will create antibodies not just for COVID-19 but also for the vehicle virus. If someone's immune system already encountered the vehicle virus naturally or via some other vaccine, the Oxford/Russian vaccine won't work at all.

[james_s]

There are those that profess the opinion to not “hold out hope for an effective vaccine any time soon”. There are also those that claim that manufacturing a safe and effective vaccine takes “10+ years or more”. There are many other ways to diminish the impact of an effective vaccine.

We now have, at least two, effective mRNA vaccines, where, previously, we never had a single one for anything. As noted, British approval has already been granted and US (EU) approval is likely on the way in a matter of weeks. We have, likely, at least three more vaccines (using more conventional processes, e.g., viral vector) that will surface in the next few months.

In addition, we have, at least two, effective monoclonal antibody treatments (Lilly, Bamlanivimab, US EU approval; Regeneron, Casirivimab+ Imdevimab, US EU approval). The MCAs are effective, non-vaccine, treatments for before CoVid-19 sends you to the hospital.

What we are seeing, in my opinion, is the greatest accomplishment by worldwide medical science in my lifetime, and in an astoundingly short period of time. It has been our best hope to defeat the pandemic and our hope is being realized – nobody rationally believes it is solved overnight. It is not a question of a glass half empty or half full, it is that we have another glass and that makes me happier than a nerd with a new chip!

In a way it reminds me of the immense technological development that came out of WWII. As terrible as it was, it ushered in the modern world that we know. Airplanes went from fragile, cantankerous wood and fabric contraptions to modern sleek all metal monoplanes, controllable pitch and constant speed propellers, engines an order of magnitude more powerful, pressurization for high altitude flight and even jets near the end, all in the space of 4 or 5 years. Major developments in radio took place eventually leading to practical television, radar, sonar and other communications technology. Mass production at scales unlike anything the world had ever seen before, it was a second industrial revolution. As a side note, I became aware relatively recently that much of the world has a less positive memory of that war, but the USA emerged virtually unscathed as an industrial and economic titan so most Americans reflect fondly on the post-war period as a time of unparalleled success and prosperity.

Anyway back on topic, I contract on the side doing medical equipment repair and facilities maintenance work for one of the largest veterinary hospitals in the area and they informed me that both employees and part time contractors qualify as essential medical workers in my state, so I was able to get the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine last week. So far so good, had very mild soreness at the injection site for about 24 hours starting the day after I got it, and one day where I felt very tired and a tad achey like I get sometimes when I'm just starting to get sick with something. That cleared right up and the next day I felt great. Got an appointment scheduled for the second dose in early Feb at which point I'll feel a little more comfortable going to the store when I need something. I'll keep wearing a mask when I'm out and try to distance myself so I don't spread anything to anyone else but the risk to myself at least is dropped down to within my comfort level. Hopefully they can really ramp up the production and distribution of that stuff soon so that everybody can get it.

[Ed.Kloonk]

Q: Does the vaccine stop the new and improved U.K. super strain?

[MK14]

Q: Does the vaccine stop the new and improved U.K. super strain?

They are not 100% sure, but they believe it is rather or very likely, the current crop of vaccines (Western ones) do prevent it.

But there are concerns that some of the other new strains of the Virus, such as, possibly the so called, South African ones and especially the Brazilian one (I might have the wrong South American Country here), may not be. Unfortunately.

Which might be a factor, in why the UK has very recently, urgently somewhat closed all its borders (starting early this coming Monday) to outsiders (approximately). I.e. they either can't come, or need testing and a 10 day quarantine.

N.B. I might get the details a bit wrong, as there is so much information, constantly changing news about it, and different people can say different things etc etc.

EDIT:
But on the other hand:

• The Western Vaccines probably will still reduce the severity of the illness, and hence be likely to save your life from the virus
• It is claimed, they can somewhat rapidly, make new vaccines, for the new variants. In fact, some sources, warn that we may need fresh vaccinations, as often as every 6 months (hopefully not, but they warn it is a possibility)

EDIT:
On reflection. It is best to get advice from an official source.

[Ed.Kloonk]

EDIT:
On reflection. it is best to get advice from an official source.

I'll watch the TV news tonight. They'll have the right answer.

[MK14]

EDIT:
On reflection. it is best to get advice from an official source.

I'll watch the TV news tonight. They'll have the right answer.

It's a potentially life threatening thing. So, I don't want to risk spreading/starting false information, due to mistakes in my comprehension, of the current situation.

[SilverSolder]

EDIT:
On reflection. it is best to get advice from an official source.

I'll watch the TV news tonight. They'll have the right answer.

It's a potentially life threatening thing. So, I don't want to risk spreading/starting false information, due to mistakes in my comprehension, of the current situation.

You obviously have no future in politics, especially right wing politics.

[james_s]

Bottom line is nobody really knows if it will protect against the new strain. As we experienced with the original virus, it's brand new so the data simply doesn't exist and all anyone can do is speculate based on what is known. I heard that the prevailing opinion among experts is that it is likely to protect against that too but we won't know until there has been time to study it. I also read that mutations are the norm rather than the exception with viruses, so I would expect there will be multiple mutations. The vaccines that have been approved so far train the body to go after the protein spikes on the outside of the virus so there is optimism that it will work against other similar coronaviruses but we'll have to wait and see.

[DrG]

EDIT:
On reflection. it is best to get advice from an official source.

I'll watch the TV news tonight. They'll have the right answer.

I thought you were still under No TV After Lights Off? 

[SiliconWizard]

The vaccines that have been approved so far train the body to go after the protein spikes on the outside of the virus so there is optimism that it will work against other similar coronaviruses but we'll have to wait and see.

Problem there is that the main mutations seem to be with the Spike protein itself... so as it's what is directly and uniquely targetted by the current mRNA vaccines, it's hard to say if it's going to be effective.

[james_s]

Problem there is that the main mutations seem to be with the Spike protein itself... so as it's what is directly and uniquely targetted by the current mRNA vaccines, it's hard to say if it's going to be effective.

Well that's why I say that nobody really knows, I was only repeating what I read, that they were optimistic and that preliminary evidence suggests that it  works against currently known mutations but it's too soon to say for sure and nobody knows what other mutations will appear. Either way though, we have a completely new vaccine technology on our hands, it's a breakthrough that could pave the way for much more rapid development of effective vaccines for other viruses.

[DrG]

To elaborate on some of what has been said..and at the risk of TL;DR...and with the qualification that I am not a virologist, I offer my opinion also.

The virus is not alive. It is a pathogen that enters a normal cell and hijacks it to produce copies of itself. The infected cell is no longer doing what it is supposed to be doing and if you have enough infected cells, you have problems.
 
The more copies you make the more likely that you will get a copy error. That is, the copy is not identical to the virus that infected the cell to make copies. That is what the mutation is; an error in the copy. Those "errors" can then go on to engineer reproduction of more of the "erroneous" copies.

Only a portion of the mutations are “biologically significant”. Minor mutations are sometimes used forensically to monitor pandemic spread and the like. Some mutations could significantly decrease the ability to infect and, thus, decrease spread. Mutations could, potentially, make a virus that is much more deadly. Those could, paradoxically, also decrease spread because the host does not stay alive long enough to easily spread the infection (something like Ebola, in comparison to SARS-CoV-2).

Some mutations could make the virus more transmittable and that’s what the concern is here. Simplistically and somewhat figuratively, the mutation could produce longer and sharper spikes; functionally enhancing penetration into the cell.

The mRNA vaccines are unique in that they carry instructions to cells to make a compound. Literally, they are mRNA (instructions) attached to lipids (to get the cell to take them in) where they instruct the cell to make and release this compound. It’s a program, written in genetic C if your cells were a C compiler with a CPU– crazy cool stuff.

The presence of that compound is designed to stimulate your immune system (which is multidimensional and much more than just T-cells) to look for and neutralize that compound. Within important limits, anything else that looks like that compound also gets destroyed. Therein lies the vaccination; create an immune response that will include recognition of the virus. So, although, the vaccine does not target anything directly, the compound it instructs the cell to make has some characteristics in common with the virus – like a sequence of proteins that are in common with a subset of the virus’ spike proteins.

At this point, I am unaware of ANY evidence that mutations that have spread are resistant to the immune activity created by the mRNA vaccines. But, this can be evaluated and is being evaluated because everyone expected mutations. Pfizer has already released some early data https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.07.425740v1 showing that their vaccine is effective against one mutation. That is what the vaccine makers will be doing; testing their efficacy against mutations.

It is like when somebody you know wears an eye patch. You still know who it is even though some of the face is obscured. Wear a full ski mask and maybe then you don’t recognize them.

We may get to a point, at some time, when the mRNA program has to be rewritten, and that is likely what they would do, probably including a mixture; a “multi strain” vaccination like we see with the seasonal flu.


Edit: The NYT just published an in depth and illustrated article about the mutations if you are interested. Very well done I think. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/coronavirus-mutations-B117-variant.html