Aliexpress and eBay prices to go up?

[ledtester]

https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums/t/its-official-no-more-cheap-shipping-for-chinese-sellers/493043

[magic]

Got notification today that all USPS international GEPS contracts will be terminated September 31st.
This is all related to the Universal Postal Union agreement that allows Chinese sellers to ship products to the U.S. for less than it costs us to ship to the same state.
The administration has given the UPU an ultimatum, that they: either allow the USPS to set rates for China mail that arrives in the U.S., or the U.S. will officially leave the UPU on October 17th.
Either way, this means as of October 17, no more cheap Chinese shipping. They will have to pay the same domestic rates as us once their e-packets arrive here.

Good riddance. Ever since AliExpress became a thing, prices of domestic mail have been going up with no end in sight.
Shame that nobody in Europe has the balls to do the same but maybe America will stir up enough shit to get things going.

[Mr. Scram]

The only people who will benefit are the people who buy cheap crap in bulk and resell it locally. Same crap, higher price.

[nctnico]

I can't find anything on official websites. This may be a hoax or premature at the very least.

[Nusa]

September 31st should be your first clue. (try to find it on a calendar if you don't get it)

The withdrawal from the UPU is a real thing and standard Trump negotiating tactics (do it my way or we'll leave). I personally think Trump will change his mind and cancel it while declaring victory in some manner. Messing with costs for ALL (not just china) international mail in both directions from ALL countries is not going to be a net positive for his election prospects.

[ledtester]

I can't find anything on official websites. This may be a hoax or premature at the very least.

From my google research, in October of 2018 official notice was given to the UPU of the intention to withdraw in a year's time. So this really isn't new news - it's just that the actual withdrawal date is coming up soon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-ditches-144-year-old-postal-pact-that-boosts-chinese-retailers/2018/10/17/88aefea6-d234-11e8-8c22-fa2ef74bd6d6_story.html

or just search for "US withdraws from UPU". And here is a slide deck on usps.com which details the US perspective:

https://postalpro.usps.com/mnt/glusterfs/2019-06/Universal%20Postal%20Union%20Exit%20Update_MTAC%20June%2019.pdf

The third slide has a "Key Dates" box.

[nvidia]

Please No

[james_s]

Got notification today that all USPS international GEPS contracts will be terminated September 31st.
This is all related to the Universal Postal Union agreement that allows Chinese sellers to ship products to the U.S. for less than it costs us to ship to the same state.
The administration has given the UPU an ultimatum, that they: either allow the USPS to set rates for China mail that arrives in the U.S., or the U.S. will officially leave the UPU on October 17th.
Either way, this means as of October 17, no more cheap Chinese shipping. They will have to pay the same domestic rates as us once their e-packets arrive here.

Good riddance. Ever since AliExpress became a thing, prices of domestic mail have been going up with no end in sight.
Shame that nobody in Europe has the balls to do the same but maybe America will stir up enough shit to get things going.

If you think that will slow the rise of domestic postage I've got a bridge to sell you. Anything is an excuse to raise shipping prices, you never see anything cause them to drop.

[magic]

Subsidizing free delivery of millions of packages from AliBay certainly doesn't help.
Snail post here has competitors both on the "paper mail" and "ecommerce" markets. They cannot simply charge whatever they want to earn billions.

[bd139]

Aliexpress will just do what Banggood do which is build a warehouse in the US and charge to keep stock in it or bring containers over and run their own customs clearance / import for their sellers. Or you'll just get the same stuff at a ramped up price, still fractionally below US manufactured stuff, drop shipped or imported by cartels.

Don't get excited. Nothing will change 

Here our postal service appears to be subsidised with unaddressed junk mail. Far more annoying.

[Marco]

That at least is competition, but you can't pull fake invoice shit to avoid import tax that way.

Trump is right here, the clear UPU injustice has lasted more than long enough that the only reasonable action for the US/EU is to threaten to leave. It is the only way things can change. He might be right on accident, but still right.

The UPU vote is end of September by the way, trying for maximum delay to lobby their way out of it.

[nctnico]

Aliexpress will just do what Banggood do which is build a warehouse in the US and charge to keep stock in it or bring containers over and run their own customs clearance / import for their sellers.

Aliexpress is already building a warehouse in Europe.

[bd139]

Just a point on the cheap shipping thing. Most of this is actually because China quotes postage on weight and USPS (and most of Europe) is a tiered system on volume/weight.

A fine example of a piece of shit here. Both packages 80g:

Package 1 ... 35.3 x 25 x 2.5 .... £0.86 second class

Package 2 .... 35.3 x 25 x 2.6 ... £2.90 second class, only 3.4x the price for an extra mm.

China Post ... same amount 

You have no idea the arguments I have got into in our local post offices above the extra millimeter here and there and because their own staff don't understand the tiering system or purposely want to charge you more.

I argue that postal services are trying to protect their monopolised rip off price tier system rather than the customers and Trump is using this as a good soundbite for some China hate.

National postal services used to be a bastion of communications purely by scale and monopoly but that isn't true now. They're declining because other private companies such as couriers and even Amazon etc aren't getting screwed for that tiering. It's economically viable to actually take them on at their own game now and for that they will adapt or die. This is the wiggling stage before the death gasps.

[magic]

Don't get excited. Nothing will change 

Availability of that junk probably isn't changing as long as there are suckers for it and nobody with the power to stop it on a whim, like it could be done in a less democratic country such as China if deemed necessary by Powers That Be.

What hopefully is changing is that sending a domestic parcel or ordering something delivered by snail mail will no longer pay for all the freeloaders importing from AliBay.

[Marco]

Most national postal systems are losing money and they don't have a monopoly to begin with.

With a true free market postal system there would be no UPU.

[bd139]

Watch what happens when UPS or DHL sign up for UPU because USPS refuses to be a carrier ... 

Edit: actually this is going to be fun. Watch what happens when we end up with a thousand reciprocal agreements between countries. "I want to send a package to Elbonia - how much is it". Postmaster hauls out a 12 inch thick book of rates, looks one up, "that's $24". Whaaaa! Then it gets nicked on its way through Wakanda because that was the cheapest path for the sender  .

This planet needs to be less territorial.

[magic]

Watch what happens when UPS or DHL sign up for UPU because USPS refuses to be a carrier ...

The sky will turn pink and cows will learn to fly

[Marco]

They negotiate fees based on cost rather than social justice (or in the case of China UPU fees perversion of social justice).

[nigelwright7557]

That at least is competition, but you can't pull fake invoice shit to avoid import tax that way.

I get pcb's made in China.
On one assignment I was contacted by customs and asked for proof of payment for the goods.
They do check up now and then.

[TK]

Aliexpress will just do what Banggood do which is build a warehouse in the US and charge to keep stock in it or bring containers over and run their own customs clearance / import for their sellers. Or you'll just get the same stuff at a ramped up price, still fractionally below US manufactured stuff, drop shipped or imported by cartels.

Don't get excited. Nothing will change 

Here our postal service appears to be subsidised with unaddressed junk mail. Far more annoying.

They cannot do it without paying 25% tariffs.  Today they don't pay tariff on shipments less than around $400, but if they ship in advance to the US to a warehouse, then they will have to pay the tariffs

[nctnico]

Aliexpress will just do what Banggood do which is build a warehouse in the US and charge to keep stock in it or bring containers over and run their own customs clearance / import for their sellers. Or you'll just get the same stuff at a ramped up price, still fractionally below US manufactured stuff, drop shipped or imported by cartels.

Don't get excited. Nothing will change 

Here our postal service appears to be subsidised with unaddressed junk mail. Far more annoying.

They cannot do it without paying 25% tariffs.  Today they don't pay tariff on shipments less than around $400, but if they ship in advance to the US to a warehouse, then they will have to pay the tariffs

Still bulk shipping is cheaper and there is some margin as well to play with. Buying Chinese goods (like test equipment) from a local supplier is usually cheaper or the same price. Unless the local supplier tries to rip you off.

[thm_w]

Just a point on the cheap shipping thing. Most of this is actually because China quotes postage on weight and USPS (and most of Europe) is a tiered system on volume/weight.

A fine example of a piece of shit here. Both packages 80g:
Package 1 ... 35.3 x 25 x 2.5 .... £0.86 second class
Package 2 .... 35.3 x 25 x 2.6 ... £2.90 second class, only 3.4x the price for an extra mm.

You are lucky, we have a 2cm max thickness to get within the $2 postage rate. Then if its thicker than that its considered a parcel and the lowest rate you will get is $15.
How anyone can make money selling mail order items here I have no idea.

Meanwhile, a decent sized package only costs $4 to ship from china via ePacket, and arrives relatively quickly.

[Red Squirrel]

I'm guilty of buying cheap stuff from China but it's just because the shipping is free so it ends up being way cheaper.  Either way I have nothing against getting rid of this deal.  I always found it stupid that it's free for them to ship here yet you pay big bucks to ship/buy locally.   I hope this new change applies to Canada too.  This whole deal with china was never fair to local business.

[bingo600]

I have for a long time opted to pay approx $3 for "Aliexpress Shipping" of my stuff , as it usually arrives in 2 weeks (EU).
If going for free shipping it takes 40..60 days , prob. shipped by Camel back via Mongolia.

I think DK is cancelling the "Cheap China postage" by the end of 2020 , as it was meant for developing countries.

/Bingo

[nctnico]

I have for a long time opted to pay approx $3 for "Aliexpress Shipping" of my stuff , as it usually arrives in 2 weeks (EU).
If going for free shipping it takes 40..60 days , prob. shipped by Camel back via Mongolia.

I think DK is cancelling the "Cheap China postage" by the end of 2020 , as it was meant for developing countries.

Just like the US, Denmark has nothing to say about postage tariffs. These are based on (very old) international treaties.

Ending the cheap postage from China was going to happen anyway. Even without all the fuzz about cheap postage from China the Universal Postal Union can't really justify to keep China in the lowest tariffs anyway. I recall reading an article about this a long time ago. Trump only makes a stance so he can claim a victory over China. But it is all window dressing.

[Marco]

In how many more decades was it going to happen?

The voting structure of the UPU would have ensured that only the US or the EU throwing their weight around and making ultimatums would have changed any thing. The EU by and large would have been far too hesitant about colonial debts to do so any time soon.

We need Trump for this.

[nctnico]

In how many more decades was it going to happen?

The voting structure of the UPU would have ensured that only the US or the EU throwing their weight around and making ultimatums would have changed any thing. The EU by and large would have been far too hesitant about colonial debts to do so any time soon.

We need Trump for this.

We really don't. Think about it: Trump can declare to withdraw at any moment; even after a voting result which he doesn't like. But no, he does it before the voting takes place so it appears to he is in control of the process while he isn't. Remember elections in the US are on their way and Trump needs anything he can declare as a win even if it wasn't a race to begin with. However this strategy may backfire if countries vote to keep China's current low rates just to annoy Trump. In that case only the US citizens will have to pay more for goods from China while the rest of the world continues to enjoy free shipping.

[Marco]

It's hard to enjoy when you know the cost ... even if you use it enough to derive economic benefit it's a bit sociopathic to enjoy foisting those costs onto the rest of your nations economy, only the naive can truly enjoy it.

The vote literally takes place a couple days before the ultimatum runs out, it would not have taken place any time soon without Trump. To dispute this is to be wrong.

[nctnico]

The vote literally takes place a couple days before the ultimatum runs out, it would not have taken place any time soon without Trump. To dispute this is to be wrong.

This discussion has been ongoing for a long time already. The US isn't the only country. See this press release from before the US announced to withdraw:
http://news.upu.int/no_cache/nd/press-statement-upu-comments-on-us-presidential-memorandum-on-international-postal-sector/

But ofcourse feel free to come up with evidence the US has really forced the issue.

[Marco]

Nothing changed after their discussion in 2018. Trump threatens to pull out, vote on actual concrete change a couple of days before the ultimatum runs out. Coincidence? As much as the sun rising every day.

Don't be a flat earther.

[Marco]

Well Trump won, but the UPU went in a direction I didn't expect ... they simply made a rule based on yearly postal weight which only applies to the US for the foreseeable future (because the EU counts as individual countries). So China can continue to screw commerce in the EU and force every EU citizen who doesn't import from China to pay the postage for the ones who do, but the US gets an out.

Oh well, I'll admit I was wrong about Trump pulling all our asses out of this fire He did do it for the US though.

The EU will continue to get screwed while the discussion which "has been ongoing for a long time already" will continue to go on and on and on.

[nigelwright7557]

I have for a long time opted to pay approx $3 for "Aliexpress Shipping" of my stuff , as it usually arrives in 2 weeks (EU).
If going for free shipping it takes 40..60 days , prob. shipped by Camel back via Mongolia.

I think DK is cancelling the "Cheap China postage" by the end of 2020 , as it was meant for developing countries.

/Bingo

While some items are ok there is a lot of rubbish coming out of China.
I bought 3 flash drives and they took 3 months to arrive and then none worked.
Bought some transistors and they lasted 10 minutes, RS Components replacements are still working months on.
Bought some nail scissors and they just bent around my nails instead of cutting them.
3 chances and your out.
The only thing I buy from China now is pcb from JLCPCB as they are very good.

In the UK there has been a massive influx of Chinese buyers onto ebay.
They take over the listings with cheap tat.
People started using local searches for items but they got around it by saying they are in the UK.

[SiliconWizard]

Speaking of that, last item I've ordered on eBay from China, over 6 weeks now, and still not received. The shipping was not even free, about $3 (for a small item), and I chose a non-free shipping option in hopes it would get here faster. Nada. The thing was posted in due time, I have the tracking, it left China a few days later, but tracking hasn't been updated in almost 6 weeks now. So no one knows where it is. Could be in some boat or just blocked at some customs. Who knows. But just to say that non-free shipping may make things more expensive but won't make them any faster.

[SeanB]

Just remember that the IPU treaties allows recipient countries to charge a handling fee on received parcels below customs value, so every time I get a parcel from China I have to go collect it at the counter, paying the sum of R28.00 ( around $2) per small packet for this.  December I sent a parcel to the EU, postage on that came to nearly $200, still cheaper than courier, which starts at $300 for the first 5kg, as under this limit they are prohibited from doing parcel delivery and collection, unless it is one of the excluded classes of items.

I only have to collect post every 2 weeks to keep up, delivery times are between 3 - 6 weeks for a letter in country, incoming tracking is faster till it hits the event horizon that is Johannesburg, where it just stays at "delivered to customs" forever.

[Mr. Scram]

While some items are ok there is a lot of rubbish coming out of China.
I bought 3 flash drives and they took 3 months to arrive and then none worked.
Bought some transistors and they lasted 10 minutes, RS Components replacements are still working months on.
Bought some nail scissors and they just bent around my nails instead of cutting them.
3 chances and your out.
The only thing I buy from China now is pcb from JLCPCB as they are very good.

In the UK there has been a massive influx of Chinese buyers onto ebay.
They take over the listings with cheap tat.
People started using local searches for items but they got around it by saying they are in the UK.

The vast majority of what you buy come from China. If you just buy the very cheapest crap it's obviously going to be crap.