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Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
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floobydust:
This is trade wars, I think it has nothing to do with the usual excuses and "supply and demand" curves economists believe in.

Look at an input cost, that of polysilicon it's up 250% this year. I think almost 80% of the world's polysilicon comes from chinese plants.
US Senate passed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act which bars imports of all goods produced in Xinjiang, a manufacturing hub for silicon metal and polysilicon. Cotton and tomatoes were already blocked.

china recently ordered plants to reduce polysilicon output by 90%... throttle down to only 10% of your August output for the rest of the year at least. This despite adding capacity.
I think just to create a shortage and spike up the prices, and retaliate. High-grade is used for IC's and lower grades for solar cells.

Prices will continue to skyrocket based on politics alone.
peter-h:
The cost of silicon must be a negligible portion of a USD 5-10 chip.

Also prices aren't really going up (except for Maxim but they are a joke anyway) - unlike previous bubbles of long ago where a 74LS245 would go GBP 0.25 to 2.50 and then back to 0.25 when it all crashed, and I am talking of normal distribution, not the cowboy dealers. This time round the cowboy dealers are also around but selling STM 32F4 for USD 50-100.

Benta:

--- Quote from: Cerebus on September 25, 2021, 07:26:35 pm ---
--- Quote from: Benta on September 25, 2021, 07:05:46 pm ---Who's "he"?

--- End quote ---

"The cat's father!" (traditional retort). The reference was to you. Did I make a gender boo-boo?

Edit: Now I see the confusion. Hareod made a remark that suggested you were talking out of your hat because he/she/it was experiencing actual shortages not what he/she/it took as you implying by taking psychological as "not real, imagined". That message has disappeared making mine into a non-sequitur. (I don't normally quote things I'm replying to if the reply will naturally follow the comment.)

--- End quote ---

Hahaha! No gender boo-boo, I don't give a hoot about that kind of thing.

But posting something provocative and then deleting that post after someone else answers is trolling at its worst. Your analysis is completely correct, I lost the connection between your post and the troll.
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: Benta on September 25, 2021, 08:09:41 pm ---
--- Quote from: Cerebus on September 25, 2021, 07:26:35 pm ---
--- Quote from: Benta on September 25, 2021, 07:05:46 pm ---Who's "he"?

--- End quote ---

"The cat's father!" (traditional retort). The reference was to you. Did I make a gender boo-boo?

Edit: Now I see the confusion. Hareod made a remark that suggested you were talking out of your hat because he/she/it was experiencing actual shortages not what he/she/it took as you implying by taking psychological as "not real, imagined". That message has disappeared making mine into a non-sequitur. (I don't normally quote things I'm replying to if the reply will naturally follow the comment.)

--- End quote ---

Hahaha! No gender boo-boo, I don't give a hoot about that kind of thing.

But posting something provocative and then deleting that post after someone else answers is trolling at its worst. Your analysis is completely correct, I lost the connection between your post and the troll.

--- End quote ---

I don't think it was intended to be provocative or trolling (slightly sarky maybe, but nothing extreme), I think it was a genuine "didn't read carefully enough". Hareod probably figured it out either spontaneously or because of my comment, went "Doh!' and withdrew the post either not realising or spotting the discontinuity it would cause.
Benta:

--- Quote from: floobydust on September 25, 2021, 07:43:54 pm ---This is trade wars, I think it has nothing to do with the usual excuses and "supply and demand" curves economists believe in.

Look at an input cost, that of polysilicon it's up 250% this year. I think almost 80% of the world's polysilicon comes from chinese plants.
US Senate passed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act which bars imports of all goods produced in Xinjiang, a manufacturing hub for silicon metal and polysilicon. Cotton and tomatoes were already blocked.

china recently ordered plants to reduce polysilicon output by 90%... throttle down to only 10% of your August output for the rest of the year at least. This despite adding capacity.
I think just to create a shortage and spike up the prices, and retaliate. High-grade is used for IC's and lower grades for solar cells.

Prices will continue to skyrocket based on politics alone.

--- End quote ---

I know the Bernreuter report. But what's missing in this conspiracy hypothesis is, that it's got very little to do with semiconductor manufacturing (as in semicinductor chips).
The Chinese polysilicon manufacturing is almost all about solar panels - and China is very succesful in delivering those. The main suppliers for the semi fabs are still Wacker, Hemlock et al.

No, the issue is still wafer fab capacity, which might be a couple percent low, and irresponsible pruchasing strategies from big customers.
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