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| Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes? |
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| Benta:
@Cerebus: I've no idea, I didn't see the post. Let's leave it there. Cheers. |
| tooki:
--- Quote from: peter-h on September 25, 2021, 10:13:14 am ---It is just a bubble. The fact that most passives are easily available confirms what is already obvious: the demand for the end product is not significantly larger. --- End quote --- I think your conclusions are wrong. 1. Making passives isn’t nearly as difficult. There’s a lot of manufacturing capacity, and it’s easier to ramp up than semiconductor manufacturing, which is insanely complex and time-consuming. The start to finish process for modern semiconductors takes around 3 months due to the sheer number of steps involved (about 700 steps). 2. The high availability of passives is likely partly due to the fact that they’re useless without the semiconductors they’re used with. No chips = no boards being made = less passives being bought + factories still pumping them out = plenty on the market. |
| floobydust:
The fab reports say production is already up, 200mm is +5%. World Fab Forecast Report (2020 to 2022) shows historic investment, $90B in equipment wow. Intel celebrates breaking ground. Oh just 3-4 years to go on a puny $20B fab :palm: I thought it was strange Wacker AG 5-year contract for selling 70MT polysilicon to chinese JinkoSolar. As if the chinese need any for solar lol. Wacker Germany is doing excellent but USA is reducing shifts, something to do with the chinese 57% duties on US PV. So it doesn't really make sense to buy German polysilicon (PV, not IC grade) when you are throttling back your own production PV grade 90%. I think geopolitics and a trade war are underlying the shortages. |
| T3sl4co1l:
--- Quote from: tooki on September 25, 2021, 08:34:15 pm --- --- Quote from: peter-h on September 25, 2021, 10:13:14 am ---It is just a bubble. The fact that most passives are easily available confirms what is already obvious: the demand for the end product is not significantly larger. --- End quote --- I think your conclusions are wrong. 1. Making passives isn’t nearly as difficult. There’s a lot of manufacturing capacity, and it’s easier to ramp up than semiconductor manufacturing, which is insanely complex and time-consuming. The start to finish process for modern semiconductors takes around 3 months due to the sheer number of steps involved (about 700 steps). 2. The high availability of passives is likely partly due to the fact that they’re useless without the semiconductors they’re used with. No chips = no boards being made = less passives being bought + factories still pumping them out = plenty on the market. --- End quote --- Modest increases perhaps, but mind that bringing new capacity online takes almost as long. Remember the 2018 capacitor shortage. Tim |
| Simon:
--- Quote from: MT on September 25, 2021, 07:18:54 pm ---Dont exclude and underestimate Klaus Schwab and the Davos crowd etc and their planetary eugenically feudal Great Reset agenda in this component shortage. --- End quote --- reset to what? what does anyone stand to gain other than the grey market dealers that have no influence and can cash in on parts. Which is nothing new. Just look for obsolete infineon parts, if the part is popular they are 4x the price, if the dealer messed up and the parts were not so popular they are 0.25x the price. This is obvious with infineon stuff as they just obsolete stuff no matter how popular it is as popular to them means the car makers buy them direct in the millions of peices. I have just got my employer to pre-order 1'000 SAMC21 microcontrollers, they are due in November, the next predicted shipment is september 2022. That is us fixed for any microcontroller required in a design for at least the next year as I know it will cover any requirement. next I will move on to voltage regulators and then general MOSFET's. There were already issues with silicone based parts before covid, demand was growing, electric cars are on the rise, people don't "just" build fabs's that cost billions of dollars. There was an earlier shortage of passive a couple of years ago, obviously the industry caught up and now there is little use for a ceramic bypass capacitor for a microcontroller that you cannot get. So as for your conspiracy theories, please take them elsewhere - maybe to a shrink. |
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