Author Topic: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?  (Read 4201 times)

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Offline harerod

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2021, 08:27:03 am »
Benta, Cerebus - sorry for the confusion. A couple of minutes after posting, I decided that my post didn't live up to my standards, checked that nobody had answered yet and then deleted the post.

My post was aimed at Benta's "psychological", which allows huge room for interpretation. Anyways, here is the original post that I deleted, verbatim:


The "shortage" is to 90% psychological.
...
Maybe you are just the doctor that I have been looking for. In my line of work I have been hallucinating for nearly a year that 90%+ of the silicon in my BOMs are unobtanium or at least beating platinum in price per mass.
Seriously, I know that I am using a lot of special components, but without those ADI/ST/TI single source devices we couldn't do the stuff we are doing. The other day I looked for opamps. It has been a long time since I settled for inferior components, just to get something into manufacturing. My old East German mentor keeps quoting GDR jokes. I haven't heard that many GDR joke since the wall came down.

 

Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2021, 09:15:25 am »
The problem is that we no longer live in a world populated by:

74 logic
741 opamps
78 regulators
16F84 micro controllers
1N4007 diodes
2N7000 mosfets
IRF540 power mosfets

Each subgroup of silicone devices is now full of a host of different devices, unless there is demand for all of them in volume how can we expect anyone to make them and keep dead stock on the shelf. I don't know what the minimum run for a silicone device is but yea.....

ST seem to be very popular because they are cheap and from the little I have seen not great but the world runs on cheap. I chose the SAMC21 range which means I'm competing less and I get a chip that may cost a bit more but will do all I want.

Currently work are struggling to get a microchip 3.3V regulator. It was clearly used by the idiot designer because it was cheap, the cheapest. Well guess why it is so cheap, it's only 1.6x1.6mm, it also seems to be the only regulator in that package. Had he chosen a regulator in a 3x3mm package you would be able to get some right now from several manufacturers making pin compatible devices.

We need to move back to the days of more standardization in some parts, now your £100 board is held up by a voltage regulator of all things that costs pence.....
 
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Offline Just_another_Dave

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2021, 09:37:10 am »
The problem is that we no longer live in a world populated by:

74 logic
741 opamps
78 regulators
16F84 micro controllers
1N4007 diodes
2N7000 mosfets
IRF540 power mosfets

Each subgroup of silicone devices is now full of a host of different devices, unless there is demand for all of them in volume how can we expect anyone to make them and keep dead stock on the shelf. I don't know what the minimum run for a silicone device is but yea.....

ST seem to be very popular because they are cheap and from the little I have seen not great but the world runs on cheap. I chose the SAMC21 range which means I'm competing less and I get a chip that may cost a bit more but will do all I want.

Currently work are struggling to get a microchip 3.3V regulator. It was clearly used by the idiot designer because it was cheap, the cheapest. Well guess why it is so cheap, it's only 1.6x1.6mm, it also seems to be the only regulator in that package. Had he chosen a regulator in a 3x3mm package you would be able to get some right now from several manufacturers making pin compatible devices.

We need to move back to the days of more standardization in some parts, now your £100 board is held up by a voltage regulator of all things that costs pence.....

I find the lack of standardization in electronics an important problem nowadays. Last year, we had to solder backwards a regulator in a prototype as a consequence of a wrongly specified reference voltage by our client (it needed to be provided to one of their boards from our pcb). The manufacturer of the regulator that they recommended had assigned the pins differently in each of the regulators of that family and the one that they told us and the required one had their footprint mirrored
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #28 on: September 26, 2021, 09:52:40 am »
3 pin regulators tend to be the same unless they have an enable pin although I have not compared those. MOSFET's in common 3 pin packages seem to have common pinouts as do the SOIC8 ones which saved my ass recently.

But microcontrollers - all different. any other more or less specific IC like a SM converter will be unique there is no stopping that, it's more a case of no one makes drop in replacements for others parts. It's not a case oy why make my new part interchangeable with an existing one that means people can use it instead? well it works both ways, making your part the same footprint and pinout as another means people can use it with no fear.

In my last job we changed a fan for cheaper and better one on the basis that it was the same size and mount hole pattern so we could revert to the original fans if we wanted to.
 

Offline DC1MC

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2021, 10:54:07 am »
What about JEDEC standardistion efforts, are they still ongoing ?
 

Online peter-h

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2021, 11:13:05 am »
Yes; regulators are scarce too. The old LM2936 is disappearing from stocks, unless you buy the version with the enable pin (which far fewer people want) and buy it from Mouser (who charge more than anybody else - how the hell did they become one of the very few TI distributors in the UK??). The MIC5201-5.0YM-TR has the same pinout but the enable pin works backwards, which matters if you are using a 2936 with the enable pin. But there are loads of regulators...

I don't really agree that old components are not used/usable anymore. The 1N4007 of decades ago is now SMT and might be a BYG10M or one of dozens of equivalents. So if an LM358 does the job, use that!

Choosing components, using old ones as far as possible, is an art, which few people have unless they have been at it for a long time and preferably have been responsible for their own company. But if you do it right, you eliminate 99% of headaches.

What has happened, over past few decades, is that manufacturers have focused on unusual parts, with some unusual feature, to entrap less experienced designers into designing-in unusual parts. That's where the money is. It is not in LM358s, or BYG10Ms.

ST are successful because they deliver good value. They do lots of cheap chips. Look at the STLED316 display driver. €0.75 1k+ and that's from Mouser which is always expensive. You get a driver for 6 digits for that. They also do loads of less well known op-amps, comparators and such like. And the 1k price for the 32F417 is about £5.

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Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #31 on: September 26, 2021, 12:12:43 pm »
I'm not saying that the old ones are not usable or used, but that those jellybean part numbers are now an ever shrinking portion of the varied mix. If you search 1N4007 you will find few that are really called that but are a spec match. Now for 2N7000, those do not even have pin compatibility between manufacturers while marketed as the same number, the 2N7002 will have as they do that on SMT parts but look carefully at the specs. You get parts like NX7002.... these are the same thing but may have slight variations like in exact gate threshold but overall are interchangeable.

But as you get more complicated than a transistor pin compatibility gets more unlikely unless some sort of silent standard has established itself.

I'm almost suggesting we build in house as we will soon have to hold all of our own stocks and free issuing means you get reals back from a 50 peice build with 5 parts floating in the bag as the tape has to be pulled back by a few parts in the feeder.

ST data sheets give me the heebeegeebees , they read like they are written by lawyers and I found them the worse for getting to the bottom of what a part can actually do. Compare an ST datasheet for a switch mode converter to an LT one...... I'm making a few hundred, I can't spend hours saving pounds on the entire product run of 300 plus worry I misunderstood an intentionally ambiguous datasheet.
 

Online Cerebus

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #32 on: September 26, 2021, 12:22:14 pm »
The manufacturer of the regulator that they recommended had assigned the pins differently in each of the regulators of that family and the one that they told us and the required one had their footprint mirrored

Grrr. People who design a family of parts with different pinouts within the family should have their toes desoldered.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 
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Offline TheDane

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #33 on: September 26, 2021, 01:08:09 pm »
As soon as the shipping world gets back to normal.... delivery rates will go down and shipping time will decrease - and chips be delivered cheaper and faster.
- and when is that going to happen  :-//

I read this on SlashDot a while ago, with some interesting informative comments:
https://news.slashdot.org/story/21/06/16/2254236/why-we-are-in-a-shipping-crisis-thats-sparking-shortages
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #34 on: September 26, 2021, 03:08:49 pm »
Shipping is not the issue, it's the manufacturing.
 
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Online Cerebus

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #35 on: September 26, 2021, 03:51:51 pm »
A year ago shipping a container from China to the UK cost £1600, this year you're talking £10,000; and the same thing has happened to shipping prices all over the world. That is of course going to have an effect on everybody. Remember, not just finished parts require shipping, so do raw materials, sometimes several times (e.g. feedstock => resin manufacturer => chip encapsulating plant => distributor).
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 
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Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #36 on: September 26, 2021, 03:56:21 pm »
Yes, but here we are talking just plain not being able to get hold of stuff.
 

Online Cerebus

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #37 on: September 26, 2021, 04:11:47 pm »
The increase in shipping prices is mostly being driven by the demand curve. That is, shortage of shipping capacity is driving shipping prices up. You can't get stuff if you can't find a ship to carry it at a price you're willing to pay.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 

Offline Simon

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Offline Bassman59

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #39 on: September 27, 2021, 03:26:22 pm »
There were already issues with silicone based parts before covid,

Silicon and silicone are NOT the same thing!!
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #40 on: September 27, 2021, 05:53:08 pm »
true, I mis-spelt it in my haste.
 

Offline Infraviolet

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #41 on: September 28, 2021, 12:18:45 am »
The chip shortages, and associated higher prices end when, and only when, there is enough manufacturing capacity back online to cover for the demand. That won't happen until several new factories have been built, or existing ones repurposed, to overcome things like the factory which brutn down in 2020 and those which have closed. Could take anywhere from one year to 4 years I'd guess, the incentive for new semiconductor plants is good, but setting them up will take time.
 

Online peter-h

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2021, 07:21:05 am »
No; there is no real "demand".

The buying we are seeing is panic buying. People with cash are stocking up. Eventually they will get bored with it, and then there will be a crash.
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Online daqq

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2021, 08:51:34 am »
Not sure of your definition of a bubble.

The processes and requirements for manufacturing of passives are trivial in comparison to the manufacture of low complexity semiconductors. Not sure it's a good comparison.


edit:
Grrr. People who design a family of parts with different pinouts within the family should have their toes desoldered.
Yes oh yes oh yes, this a thousand times this!
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 08:53:15 am by daqq »
Believe it or not, pointy haired people do exist!
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Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #44 on: September 28, 2021, 12:07:12 pm »
No; there is no real "demand".

The buying we are seeing is panic buying. People with cash are stocking up. Eventually they will get bored with it, and then there will be a crash.

Demand is up and we know that, I am now looking to prestock. If the manufacturer tells me that my microcontroller can be had in November 2021 or September 2022 what do I do? I ordered 1'000 with the assurance that of any of the projects I am aware of those ones will do all of them. I don't know how many are made at a time but only 8000 were available on preorder for 2 months time.....
 

Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #45 on: September 28, 2021, 12:29:46 pm »
The component shortage is not a bubble. It is caused by serious issues such as poor planning, government stimulus, electric vehicles, people working from home, the big freeze in Texas caused by global warming, but the biggest overall cause is the China virus causing global havoc. Opportunistic brokers is only a small aspect of the problem.

ST Micro, Texas Instruments and Bosch (Sensortec) and a number of other players are in strife. TI's website has virtually nothing about the global chip shortage other than some frogshit about protecting their employees. I have read statements released by some of the big chip company CEO's that clearly mask the truth.

The "Notify me when they are available" tick box does not cut it. These companies won't communicate honestly to their customers about what is going on. Maybe because they are more interested in their share price than their customers. Their websites advertise parts that are simply not available anywhere, now or in the foreseeable future.

Analog Devices does keep an internal cache of chips within their company for design engineers. They are a smart company, realising looking after the engineering community will pay dividends further down the track. Prices are high, but have very good IP in their chip design, but at least we can get some for R&D purposes  :-+.

I expect 2022 will be the same as 2021. 2023 may start seeing some normality in the chip supply chain unless another disaster occurs like China invades Taiwan in which case all bets are off.
 

Offline jonovid

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2021, 01:05:17 pm »
need to discern the times. In many ways this is like the 1930s only this time its both Russia and China ramping up the wardrums.  :scared:
a slow closing off from the west. growing suspicions & chaos as shipping containers start piling up everywhere,  :o food price inflation.
and the slow lost of western freedoms. disruptions everywhere,  >:D  looks like normal may be lost forever.  prove me wrong! ;D
Hobbyist with a basic knowledge of electronics
 

Online peter-h

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #47 on: September 28, 2021, 01:58:01 pm »
" I am now looking to prestock"

Opportunism in the supply pipeline is a part of this. Some months ago I got onto one well known UK disti regarding the STM 32F417. They said if I order 500 I can have 20 right away and a certain delivery time for the other 480.

I had no use for 500 anytime soon since this product won't be in production until into 2022 but had to order the 500.

In the meantime, of course, the originally quoted lead time has vapourised, so this was a con.

I wonder how much of this went on. Distis are opportunists and have always been major players in starting off the a-word ("allocation") rumours, and 6-12 months later the world goes mad. Every time.

I reckon it will all melt down before 2022. Medium size manufacturers will soon be sitting on massive overstocks.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 05:09:11 pm by peter-h »
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Offline Simon

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #48 on: September 28, 2021, 05:53:18 pm »
I'm looking at what we are likely to use and getting some. I can't buy 10 micro controllers, spend weeks writing software then find we can't go into production sure to no stocks. A product I am working on now has parts that are on a 2 year lead time, obviously the alternatives will also be vaporising fast. We would rather just ask a subcontractor to make the boards but by the time we do the boards will be impossible to make if we don't free issue stock.
 

Offline chickenHeadKnob

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Re: Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?
« Reply #49 on: September 29, 2021, 06:50:25 am »
need to discern the times. In many ways this is like the 1930s only this time its both Russia and China ramping up the wardrums.  :scared:
a slow closing off from the west. growing suspicions & chaos as shipping containers start piling up everywhere,  :o food price inflation.
and the slow lost of western freedoms. disruptions everywhere,  >:D  looks like normal may be lost forever.  prove me wrong! ;D

Currently there is strong inflation, particularly in food, correct. In the 1930's it was the opposite, profound deflation, the velocity of money crashed.

 As far as the demand for electronic components  being real I would say yes and in many sectors. Demand for PC's, graphics cards web cams, ect. Automotive demand is also real. It doesn't take much of an increase in demand to cause a shortage when the production side is inelastic.
 


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