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Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?

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VK3DRB:
The component shortage is not a bubble. It is caused by serious issues such as poor planning, government stimulus, electric vehicles, people working from home, the big freeze in Texas caused by global warming, but the biggest overall cause is the China virus causing global havoc. Opportunistic brokers is only a small aspect of the problem.

ST Micro, Texas Instruments and Bosch (Sensortec) and a number of other players are in strife. TI's website has virtually nothing about the global chip shortage other than some frogshit about protecting their employees. I have read statements released by some of the big chip company CEO's that clearly mask the truth.

The "Notify me when they are available" tick box does not cut it. These companies won't communicate honestly to their customers about what is going on. Maybe because they are more interested in their share price than their customers. Their websites advertise parts that are simply not available anywhere, now or in the foreseeable future.

Analog Devices does keep an internal cache of chips within their company for design engineers. They are a smart company, realising looking after the engineering community will pay dividends further down the track. Prices are high, but have very good IP in their chip design, but at least we can get some for R&D purposes  :-+.

I expect 2022 will be the same as 2021. 2023 may start seeing some normality in the chip supply chain unless another disaster occurs like China invades Taiwan in which case all bets are off.

jonovid:
need to discern the times. In many ways this is like the 1930s only this time its both Russia and China ramping up the wardrums.  :scared:
a slow closing off from the west. growing suspicions & chaos as shipping containers start piling up everywhere,  :o food price inflation.
and the slow lost of western freedoms. disruptions everywhere,  >:D  looks like normal may be lost forever.  prove me wrong! ;D

peter-h:
" I am now looking to prestock"

Opportunism in the supply pipeline is a part of this. Some months ago I got onto one well known UK disti regarding the STM 32F417. They said if I order 500 I can have 20 right away and a certain delivery time for the other 480.

I had no use for 500 anytime soon since this product won't be in production until into 2022 but had to order the 500.

In the meantime, of course, the originally quoted lead time has vapourised, so this was a con.

I wonder how much of this went on. Distis are opportunists and have always been major players in starting off the a-word ("allocation") rumours, and 6-12 months later the world goes mad. Every time.

I reckon it will all melt down before 2022. Medium size manufacturers will soon be sitting on massive overstocks.

Simon:
I'm looking at what we are likely to use and getting some. I can't buy 10 micro controllers, spend weeks writing software then find we can't go into production sure to no stocks. A product I am working on now has parts that are on a 2 year lead time, obviously the alternatives will also be vaporising fast. We would rather just ask a subcontractor to make the boards but by the time we do the boards will be impossible to make if we don't free issue stock.

chickenHeadKnob:

--- Quote from: jonovid on September 28, 2021, 01:05:17 pm ---need to discern the times. In many ways this is like the 1930s only this time its both Russia and China ramping up the wardrums.  :scared:
a slow closing off from the west. growing suspicions & chaos as shipping containers start piling up everywhere,  :o food price inflation.
and the slow lost of western freedoms. disruptions everywhere,  >:D  looks like normal may be lost forever.  prove me wrong! ;D

--- End quote ---

Currently there is strong inflation, particularly in food, correct. In the 1930's it was the opposite, profound deflation, the velocity of money crashed.

 As far as the demand for electronic components  being real I would say yes and in many sectors. Demand for PC's, graphics cards web cams, ect. Automotive demand is also real. It doesn't take much of an increase in demand to cause a shortage when the production side is inelastic.

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