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Any bets on how long before the component shortage bubble explodes?

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peter-h:
It is just a bubble. The fact that most passives are easily available confirms what is already obvious: the demand for the end product is not significantly larger.

What's happened is that a lot of firms converted cash into a stockpile of single sourced chips. The crazy JIT process (operated by most big firms) has just made everything worse.

I've just had a delivery of 100 STM 32F4 chips, from a normal disti. Order was placed in July. At one point the delivery date was revised to mid 2022...

Also there are the usual cowboy distis selling the chips for say $100; the key being that they have the chips to sell.

I would bet on a bloodbath in a few months' time.

Kleinstein:
With computers there are not that many passives that go with the chips - mainly the decoupling caps and there we had a supply shortage some years ago and may have reserve capacity as a consequene. For the very fine structured part there seem to be some shortage and limits in the capacity. Even now not many put an Intel CPU in the shelf hoping the price will go up. Still these chips see some shortage.

For the more common chips there is some stockpiling - not just for speculation, but from those who need the chips and now buy before and not just in time. There may be an increasing number of NOS parts coming up, but this may take some time to happen. Many stock will be just used and than maybe lower sales in 2023, when the inventory goes down to a more normal level.

Stray Electron:
  What is your interpretation of "Explodes"?   Companies like Ford have parking lots full of new trucks that are missing the engine CPUs and the deliveries of new vehicles are running months behind and it's not uncommon for dealers to be charging $20,000 above list price but still business continues so what would you consider an "explosion"?

  Frankly I don't see any impending explosion, all I predict is that some industries, such as new car production, will simply grind to a halt due to a lack of parts. Even so, there is still a huge number of used, vehicles, used computers, etc so it's doubtful that anyone or any industry is going crippled due to a lack of NEW products.

   Keep in mind that most countries have encountered this repeatedly in their histories; consider the lack of NEW cars and hundreds of other NEW products during WW-I and WW-II.

  Sorry, Chicken Little but the sky isn't falling!

jmelson:
I was looking for some Xilinx chips several weeks ago, Digi-Key said they would have no stock until December.
I just placed the order, to get into the waiting line, they shipped them 2 days ago!

Jon

bdunham7:

--- Quote from: peter-h on September 25, 2021, 10:13:14 am ---It is just a bubble. The fact that most passives are easily available confirms what is already obvious: the demand for the end product is not significantly larger.
I would bet on a bloodbath in a few months' time.

--- End quote ---

The manufacturing and marketing of simple passives is probably quite different from semis.  The backlog of container ships at ports would indicate that demand for end products is larger at the moment.

I agree that there is likely to be an implosion of some sort, seeing as China seems to be having a second Cultural Revolution of sorts, but I wouldn't bet on that implosion turning out in a particularly good way.  If you think it will result in universally plentiful semis at bargain prices, you're more optimistic than I am. 

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