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| Australia Under Fire Worst in Decades.. |
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| tom66:
--- Quote from: Brumby on January 07, 2020, 09:06:06 am ---You just described the core perception of any political leadership. Put in a different government and the only reason things would change is as a reaction to the current situation - and that is going to be the same for the incumbent. 20-20 hindsight is apolitical - and things are going to change regardless. Either way, there will be criticism of whatever changes are made. --- End quote --- This old chestnut. Every government is terrible! Therefore let's not bother and let the nutters that cut everything and give handouts to massive oil companies run the government. No, some governments are objectively better than others, and it shows when you have disasters like this. |
| Halcyon:
--- Quote from: nctnico on January 06, 2020, 04:12:50 pm --- --- Quote from: SerieZ on January 06, 2020, 03:49:08 pm ---How much of the Fire is due to Humans Activity and what is the "normal" in heat season? --- End quote --- I don't think you can blame human activity directly. Getting on fire is what large forrests do. Part of nature. Look at the bright side: what has been burned this year can't burn next year. --- End quote --- Before this changes into a "climate change caused this" debate, let me settle something for those unfamiliar. Having grown up in Sydney, currently living in a bushfire prone area and being a former firefighter I can tell you that most fires are almost all lit by humans, either deliberately by arsonists or accidentally by people working with welding equipment, having open fires, letting off fireworks etc... For the remaining 15-20% of fires, they are mostly lit by lightning. Climate Change doesn't even factor into what's happening here. Firefighters everywhere have been predicting a severe fire season for many years which never came (until now). The fuel loading was extreme because there was insufficient back burning or clearing performed in the areas that were impacted. No amount of "climate action" would have prevented this. The legislation needs to change and the rules relaxed on what can be cleared. The climate doesn't cause more extreme fires, fuel density does. Last time I checked, the fire triangle didn't include climate. |
| tom66:
--- Quote from: Halcyon on January 07, 2020, 10:25:44 am ---Climate Change doesn't even factor into what's happening here. Firefighters everywhere have been predicting a severe fire season for many years which never came (until now). The fuel loading was extreme because there was insufficient back burning or clearing performed in the areas that were impacted. --- End quote --- Climate change creates the circumstances that allow for fire, such as extremely dry and hot seasons with no rainfall for months or even years. While climate change is not the direct cause of the fires (it is not like a hot sunny day means trees self-combust) it can certainly be part of the problem, and indeed will make the situation worse in the future as global temperatures increase. For published research, Lucas (2007) as mentioned elsewhere in this thread. Forestry management is important, but it would be better if we didn't try to make the problem even harder by warming the climate beyond anything seen in thousands of years. While the basic fire triangle doesn't include climate, the fire triangle for wildfires does. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_triangle#/media/File:Fire_Triangles.jpg |
| daqq:
--- Quote ---The climate doesn't cause more extreme fires, fuel density does. --- End quote --- https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2012/03/climate-change-sends-beetles-overdrive https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/rocky-mountain-forests-risk https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/02/rocky-mountain-national-park-map-shows-climate-change-threats/ Indirect, subtle, but in the long run significant contributions that knock systems off balance. And, suddenly, you get more fuel. edit: Yes, the link does not relate to Australia, but shows that even small changes in the climate can significantly affect conditions for fires. |
| Halcyon:
--- Quote from: tom66 on January 07, 2020, 10:29:57 am --- --- Quote from: Halcyon on January 07, 2020, 10:25:44 am ---Climate Change doesn't even factor into what's happening here. Firefighters everywhere have been predicting a severe fire season for many years which never came (until now). The fuel loading was extreme because there was insufficient back burning or clearing performed in the areas that were impacted. --- End quote --- Climate change creates the circumstances that allow for fire, such as extremely dry and hot seasons with no rainfall for months or even years. While climate change is not the cause of the fires (it is not like a hot sunny day means trees self-combust) it can certainly be part of the problem, and indeed will make the situation worse in the future as global temperatures increase. For published research, Lucas (2007) as mentioned elsewhere in this thread. --- End quote --- Years of drought is not uncommon in Australia followed by years of above average rainfall. This has been happening well before "climate change" was coined and activists which have little to no insight began gluing themselves to the streets of Sydney. The fuel loading has been increasing because of this cycle, year after year. "Fire seasons" are normal here but this was well overdue (by about 5 years) and little was done to mitigate it. Even the recommendations following Victoria's last severe fires weren't followed. The amount of fuel being added year after year hasn't increased, but the interval between it being removed (either by human intervention or a fire) has. The severity of these fires and the loss of homes were directly related to human inaction, nothing else. I shall reserve any future comments on this matter, as I see this thread getting de-railed and locked fairly soon. |
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