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Australian NBN out of DOCSIS NTDs: restock guessing game
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Whales:
Context: the NBN (an Australian internet infrastructure project with lots of drama) has run out of DOCSIS Network Termination Devices (NTDs).  Ie the black coax modems that get used in HFC areas, commonly referred to as "an 'arris":


Indicative photo stolen from https://10mates.com.au/troubleshooting/

I only found out this week after chatting to a couple of our MSPs.  Looks like some of my work sites are going to stay on ADSL for a while longer  8)  There are lots of jokes going around (picture: NBN guy looks inside the cupboard out back near the dunny and goes "hmm, we seem to be out Bruce"). 

Lots of discussion on the Whirlpool forums.

You're not allowed to use your own DOCSIS modem, they have to be the NBN supplied ones.  They're address locked so you can't use a spare from someone else.  Pretty much you have to wait until things restock OR for them to change policy (hah! I wouldn't put it past them to have secret modem monopoly contracts).

Restock guessing game

Ignoring final assembly/manufacture: I wonder what parts will be the hardest to source at the moment.  Main chipset?  Coax lightning protection passives?  100nF 0805 capacitors?

Sadly I can't find any photos of the inside of an Arris CM8200 and I'm not about to crack open any of the few that remain (plus they're technically NBN property).  If anyone can find photos then please share.

My wild guess: 6 months before any new orders can start being serviced.  We're currently in Chinese New Year, everything seems to be in shortages and the initial small trickle of units coming in will get slated for replacing existing dead NTD units rather than new installs. 
Circlotron:
So what then about my old mum who has one of these and some other box and a landline phone connected to it. It's her only phone. So if the box conks out she has no phone. Aren't phones considered to be an essential service?
Someone:

--- Quote from: Circlotron on February 19, 2021, 12:46:30 pm ---So what then about my old mum who has one of these and some other box and a landline phone connected to it. It's her only phone. So if the box conks out she has no phone. Aren't phones considered to be an essential service?
--- End quote ---
They were an essential service with a high availability mandated by regulations. But, there was always the option to sell customers "looks like a landline phone, smells like a landline phone, works like a landline phone, but sign this piece of paper to agree its not reliable like a landline phone".

That made sense for a VOIP line running over the generic IP network, but they have taken the same position with the NBN phone lines. Several problems with that:
a) there is segregated routing on the NBN for phone services. The supplier has control of the network right up to the phone.
b) NBN connections all (residential) come with a phone number, you can't get "naked" services.
c) NBN retailers are selling locked hardware (like the OP) where the user can't configure their own system or obtain the configuration/credentials to use their own hardware.
d) exchanges/central offices used to provide battery (and diesel generator) backup for operation through power outages. The NBN network pulled that out for cost savings.

Everything there is to the convenience of the retailer/supplier, and worse for the customer. NBN, pay more for less!
wraper:
Does anyone else besides NBN still use that shit for new installations? Even my friend in Ukraine (country which is falling apart) got fiber-optic directly to their dilapidated home located in village. There is even no driveway on their street, since it turned into trench due to negligence.
coppice:

--- Quote from: wraper on February 19, 2021, 09:46:00 pm ---Does anyone else besides NBN still use that shit for new installations? Even my friend in Ukraine (country which is falling apart) got fiber-optic directly their dilapidated home in located in village.

--- End quote ---
Globally only a small percentage of consumers have fibre right into their premises. I had a $25 a month gigabit fibre connection in my lounge 12 years ago, which genuinely ran at a full gigabit up and down most of the time.... then I moved to the UK and stepped back in time. :)
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