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“Battery EV” vs “Hydrogen Fuel cell EV”
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MadScientist:

--- Quote from: 2N3055 on March 26, 2022, 09:15:04 pm ---
--- Quote from: MadScientist on March 26, 2022, 08:09:38 pm ---This argument sounds a lot like the proponents of Betamax arguing it’s merits long after the industry had basically abandoned the format.

Car companies are going BEV. End of discussion

Those arguing about EV issues have clearly never owned one. I have both a diesel van and an electric car. My EV has 275,000km on it and my van has 290,000km. In all the time Ive never either run out of diesel nor electricity and that’s the experience of vast majority of people

As for comments about not having a driveway , most people in dense housing situations , which proper town planning , don’t need cars , both my adult kids living in major European capitals don’t have cars , nor do their peer group. Both rent them as needed now and again.

The average car commute is 14 km per day. With current EV ranges approaching 500 km , that charging about once a fortnight , easily done at a local fast charging station. No need for a driveway and not to mention many workplaces have fitted charging points , PAYPAL HQ has 50 in its parking lot near me.

Electric motors   are fast , powerful , way better then the 19th century bag of bolts. Once you drive all electric you rarely go back.

Embrace it , it’s going to be all encompassing

--- End quote ---

Yeah, no..

First EU recognizes that there is no infrastructure to charge all vehicles even if you magically convert them to BEV. Large projects to do so are underway but will not be enough. Therefore there is strategic plan to run at least 30-40% of vehicles on fuel cells/hydrogen. Fuel cell/hydrogen is their strategic choice for range extension. There are EU commission decisions on this. Hydrogen is coming. You can buy fuel cell Toyota today.

If you live in city there is no charging on the street. And that is not gonna change soon.
Your solution to that is that I don't deserve to own a car?
Where I live rentals are prohibitively expensive, 4-5 days of rent equals a monthly payment to own one. So people just buy cars and don't drive them much..
Not everybody work where they live, and most cities in the world have bad public transport anywhere outside inner city limits. Or you have lines that go in such a way that you need to travel 10 km one way and then 10 km back to get to place that is 3km from you if cut across the town directly..
Most industrial parks are on city periphery and by Murphy always there where there is no direct line..

In order for these things to work cities should be much better planned than they are. Now they kind of, sort of, work for many, but not for everybody..
EV's are better tech. They are. Love them. And I can't have them.
If parking in front of my building had chargers I would get EV today. But in front of my building I'm lucky to find a parking space in a first place..

Not to mention that I can buy a decent fully working used gasoline car for 2000€.
Brave new world practically mean that many poor people won't be having a car anymore...

--- End quote ---

Manufacturers , town planners , environmentalists, and motoring pundits are not interested in people looking to buy cars for 2000€. Your opinion is not mainstream , thanks for your opinion but it’s statistically an outlier and while amusing , is not representative of what IS happening and WILL happen
nctnico:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 27, 2022, 01:31:46 am ---
--- Quote ---Those are pipe dreams. Crack pipe dreams.
--- End quote ---

Apparently not for many manufacturers who are going all-electric anyway:

--- End quote ---
If you actually read the articles you linked to, you'd seen that it is not the end of the internal combustion engine. A hybrid is also an electric car in car maker's & government's speak. You need to keep in mind that the average CO2 output of cars needs to get lower and lower. At some point the only way to do this is hybrid technology in order to keep a car affordable (and usefull to those to whom a BEV is useless). So in the end the car makers aren't ending pure ICE cars, it is the EU rules that make non-hybrid ICE cars impossible to sell (without hefty fines).

Ofcourse the car makers add a thick layer of marketing wankery on top of it and give it a positive spin to make it look like they care about the environment. But in reality they don't. Several of the European car makers you listed where involved in a pact where they agreed not to compete on emissions and make their cars just good enough to pass regulations.
2N3055:

--- Quote from: MadScientist on March 27, 2022, 07:21:15 am ---Manufacturers , town planners , environmentalists, and motoring pundits are not interested in people looking to buy cars for 2000€. Your opinion is not mainstream , thanks for your opinion but it’s statistically an outlier and while amusing , is not representative of what IS happening and WILL happen

--- End quote ---

Is this one of those (in royal purple)?:
Yes I think best would be that anybody that cannot afford Tesla should be banned from the country and extradited to one of those poor countries. They like those loosers (that is why they have so much of them, isn't it?) so they don't spoil our day... We don't need them here, they are such a drag...

LOL.. Elitist much? You have no concept what word mainstream means in this context. If you want to apply green energy cars to anybody and everybody, that means not only minority number of of green enthusiasts and people that have more than enough money to buy anything and are limited only by choice. Wealthy green enthusiast can buy themselves a complete new lifestyle. What do you recon how many people in, for instance USA, are in such a group? 2% ? 5%?  :-//

Rest of them are not important.
We'll deport them or run over with a tank...  :-//

LOL buddy, reasoning like you shown is reason why revolutions happen...  |O

BEV with decent performance exist more than 15-20 years now. They show no significant penetration to market because:

- they are too expensive for majority of population
- they are not sustainable solution - if all of us get one we wouldn't be able to drive them because couldn't charge them. If you want to grow crops, you need to provide watering to the land before starting production. Simple as that.
- most people don really care about green energy. Many don't even think about it and there are many that think it is a conspiracy theory. Those two groups make up staggeringly high percentage of population. Those without any opinion would buy electric if it weren't more expensive. They don't care. They are not pro or contra anything, but simply cannot afford it. They are neck deep in rent and credits as they are and stretched thin as it is. 
tom66:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 27, 2022, 12:02:14 am ---
--- Quote ---So you will realistically need to increase capacity by 2-3% per year to accommodate EVs assuming total fleet replacement by say 2050.
--- End quote ---

In 2030 (that's only 8 years away) you won't be able to buy new non-EV cars[1]. So the first question is what's the increase in the car population (because in 8 years time they will all be EVs)? And the answer appears to be 15%[2], so that's stuffed your 2-3% prediction to start with.

--- End quote ---

Well no, petrol cars last 15 years with good maintenance, so even if it's only possible to buy an EV from 2030 or so (2032 in the UK, 2035 in most of Europe) there will still be petrol cars on the road until 2045-2050 or so.  I expect as we approach 2045 it will become even more difficult to use such a car,  there will be less access to fuel and probably outright bans in city centres and so on.  But they will exist.

This "power grid will be overloaded" statement just doesn't make sense.  At most we're looking at 20% additional demand for electricity*, but it will happen over about 15-20 years.  So even my 2-3% per year increase is way on the high side.  It's more likely closer to 1%.  Electricity consumption in the UK and the USA has actually fallen in the last decade.  Why do we believe there will be rolling blackouts?

Not to mention, EVs don't need to charge at 6pm, like when you might put the oven on, which creates a lot of demand. EVs can charge at 2am, parked on your driveway, when there's much less demand on the grid.  Grid operators love this - smooth, continuous demand is easier to manage than peaks in the evening.

*Calculation: 9000 miles pa for typical European driver. VW e-Golf or equivalent getting 3.5mi/kWh after charger losses.  2500kWh additional usage.  25 million cars in UK.  62.5TWh additional usage.  UK electricity generation for 2019: 323.7TWh.  ~19.3%.
Someone:

--- Quote from: tom66 on March 27, 2022, 09:27:53 am ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 27, 2022, 12:02:14 am ---
--- Quote ---So you will realistically need to increase capacity by 2-3% per year to accommodate EVs assuming total fleet replacement by say 2050.
--- End quote ---

In 2030 (that's only 8 years away) you won't be able to buy new non-EV cars[1]. So the first question is what's the increase in the car population (because in 8 years time they will all be EVs)? And the answer appears to be 15%[2], so that's stuffed your 2-3% prediction to start with.

--- End quote ---

Well no, petrol cars last 15 years with good maintenance, so even if it's only possible to buy an EV from 2030 or so (2032 in the UK, 2035 in most of Europe) there will still be petrol cars on the road until 2045-2050 or so.  I expect as we approach 2045 it will become even more difficult to use such a car,  there will be less access to fuel and probably outright bans in city centres and so on.  But they will exist.

This "power grid will be overloaded" statement just doesn't make sense.  At most we're looking at 20% additional demand for electricity*, but it will happen over about 15-20 years.  So even my 2-3% per year increase is way on the high side.  It's more likely closer to 1%.  Electricity consumption in the UK and the USA has actually fallen in the last decade.  Why do we believe there will be rolling blackouts?

Not to mention, EVs don't need to charge at 6pm, like when you might put the oven on, which creates a lot of demand. EVs can charge at 2am, parked on your driveway, when there's much less demand on the grid.  Grid operators love this - smooth, continuous demand is easier to manage than peaks in the evening.

*Calculation: 9000 miles pa for typical European driver. VW e-Golf or equivalent getting 3.5mi/kWh after charger losses.  2500kWh additional usage.  25 million cars in UK.  62.5TWh additional usage.  UK electricity generation for 2019: 323.7TWh.  ~19.3%.
--- End quote ---
If you carve out only private passenger transport (in a country with a high use of public transport) and ignore all other transport then that is true, around 15-20% above current generation. But the countrywide figures look much worse:
https://www.iea.org/sankey/#?c=United%20Kingdom&s=Final%20consumption
426TWh of energy used in road transport, with electric vehicles expected to be more efficient bringing that down by a factor of 3 or so (for direct BEV).
Against around 300TWh of generation annually makes an increase of almost 50% in generation being required if all road transport is moved to direct electricity use, worse if they go through an intermediate step as this thread considers.
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