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Confused about PHEV, Hybrids, etc...
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nctnico:

--- Quote from: sokoloff on August 15, 2022, 12:02:10 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on August 15, 2022, 08:22:20 am ---Think about it this way,  if say the average CA car is $40,000 and lasts 15 years and does the average of 12k miles per year, then per mile depreciation alone is 22 cents per mile (that's more than nct's quoted cost on depreciation alone, but this is a new car.)
--- End quote ---
The average car in the US is 12.2 years old. (I think, but am not sure, that this is the average of registered cars.) Given that CA is one of the better climates for car longevity, I think it's far to estimate that cars last quite a bit longer than 15 years, likely bringing the figure you calculate down to $0.12-15.

--- End quote ---
Indeed. Cars don't get scrapped after 12 years but sold to a new owner. Typically cars get exported to drive around for another 15 to 20 years in a different country (or in case of the US: maybe a different state).

You'd have to look at the age distribution for the cars in order to draw any meaningfull conclusions. Likely a lot of cars leave the market to be exported at a relatively young age but that also means that such cars have not devalued to 0.
Bassman59:

--- Quote from: bdunham7 on August 13, 2022, 05:18:15 pm ---
--- Quote from: sokoloff on August 13, 2022, 04:33:40 pm ---Who the hell is driving around in a 5-ton vehicle today?!

--- End quote ---

Well it isn't 5 tons, but a Tesla Model X has a GVWR of over 6700lbs and qualifies for a significant tax credit (Section 179) for being over 3 tons.

--- End quote ---

Also in the "not 5 tons but ..." category are all of the big pickup trucks and SUVs I see around here. F250, Silverado, etc can all easily weigh in at 6000 lbs.
gnuarm:

--- Quote from: nctnico on August 15, 2022, 01:55:08 pm ---Indeed. Cars don't get scrapped after 12 years but sold to a new owner. Typically cars get exported to drive around for another 15 to 20 years in a different country (or in case of the US: maybe a different state).

You'd have to look at the age distribution for the cars in order to draw any meaningfull conclusions. Likely a lot of cars leave the market to be exported at a relatively young age but that also means that such cars have not devalued to 0.

--- End quote ---

I haven't followed this to know the context exactly, but as BEVs progress, the cost advantages will become more pronounced.  With the difference in operating costs, it will become advantageous to scrap ICE vehicles before their "use by" date has expired.  In 10 years, virtually all cars sold will be BEVs.  Over the course of another 10 years, we won't see very many ICE left on the roads.  There may remain a few diehards who want to drive for 12 hours with no breaks (the only use case where ICE has an advantage) and insist ICE is the only answer, the 1%.  The life expectancy of ICE vehicles will be dramatically reduced.

The rest of us will happily drive BEVs and not worry about the obsolete junkers we used to drive.
sokoloff:
I will be shocked if in 10 years 50% of new cars sold are pure BEVs. In fact, I’ll take that bet, specifically for US new car sales.

I have one BEV (a 2015 LEAF) and one ICE (2005 CR-V) as daily drivers. Rust will kill the CR-V before other economics will and I expect to replace it with something around 6-8 years old and with an ICE (perhaps a PHEV) when that time comes and expect they will be economical to keep running come 2032.
EEVblog:

--- Quote from: sokoloff on August 17, 2022, 12:59:38 am ---I will be shocked if in 10 years 50% of new cars sold are pure BEVs. In fact, I’ll take that bet, specifically for US new car sales.
--- End quote ---

I'll take that bet too, and I'm as pro-EV as they come.
The reality has already hit the EV industry head on. Batteries have not plummeted in price like predicted, even with all the Gigafactory hype, and I don't see this changing much this decade. Certainly not by the half order of magnitude drop in price required, not to mention production capability.
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