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Confused about PHEV, Hybrids, etc...
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bdunham7:

--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 16, 2022, 11:53:21 pm ---With the difference in operating costs, it will become advantageous to scrap ICE vehicles before their "use by" date has expired.  In 10 years, virtually all cars sold will be BEVs.  Over the course of another 10 years, we won't see very many ICE left on the roads.  There may remain a few diehards who want to drive for 12 hours with no breaks (the only use case where ICE has an advantage) and insist ICE is the only answer, the 1%.  The life expectancy of ICE vehicles will be dramatically reduced.

--- End quote ---

Some bold predictions there.  But aside from the obvious argument that capital costs generally outweigh running costs for the typical car buyer, I think you might want to have a look at what cars are actually being scrapped currently (for reasons other than being totaled in collisions).  For many BEVs, a failed battery is the end of the road.  For many ICEs, the same may be true for transmissions, but that usually applies to much older and less valuable models. 
gnuarm:

--- Quote from: sokoloff on August 17, 2022, 12:59:38 am ---I will be shocked if in 10 years 50% of new cars sold are pure BEVs. In fact, I’ll take that bet, specifically for US new car sales.
--- End quote ---

It's the US and the EU where this is most likely.  BEVs still have a sticker price penalty, which the more affluent can afford.  The battery is expensive enough that it's presently hard to make a low end BEV.  But that will improve.  Remember Moore's Law?  Still going strong after how many years?  Same thing with batteries.  As the number of BEVs sold increases, the more money will be poured into battery research.



--- Quote ---I have one BEV (a 2015 LEAF) and one ICE (2005 CR-V) as daily drivers. Rust will kill the CR-V before other economics will and I expect to replace it with something around 6-8 years old and with an ICE (perhaps a PHEV) when that time comes and expect they will be economical to keep running come 2032.

--- End quote ---

Maybe in 2032 you can still run an ICE, but by 2040 gasoline will be hard to come by.  The distribution channels require constant use and with less than 5% of the cars on the road being ICE, gas will be hard to find.   Gas stations will close and you will have to buy gas in special places, industrial parks and maybe airports. 

Gasoline will end up in the same position hydrogen is now, no real infrastructure to support it.   
gnuarm:

--- Quote from: EEVblog on August 17, 2022, 02:18:47 am ---
--- Quote from: sokoloff on August 17, 2022, 12:59:38 am ---I will be shocked if in 10 years 50% of new cars sold are pure BEVs. In fact, I’ll take that bet, specifically for US new car sales.
--- End quote ---

I'll take that bet too, and I'm as pro-EV as they come.
The reality has already hit the EV industry head on. Batteries have not plummeted in price like predicted, even with all the Gigafactory hype, and I don't see this changing much this decade. Certainly not by the half order of magnitude drop in price required, not to mention production capability.

--- End quote ---

"plummeted in price like predicted"

Pure nonsense.  Who predicted that?  This is like the climate change denialists who tout the claims of the "world ending" in 10 years.  No one who is credible has said that. 

If you believe in basic math, you will be able to take the numbers for the last several years and see the >50% annual growth in sales.  Project that forward and you will see that in 10 years nearly all new cars sold will be BEVs. 

In 2018, literally every car company in the world started scrambling to produce new BEV models after seeing the success of the Tesla model 3.  A car that continues to have a year long order backlog even after raising the introductory price from the $30s to the $40s.  The Ford and other offerings have similar backlogs. 

The only possible monkey wrench I see is the possibility of raw materials, such as lithium, limiting production rates.  I expect most BEV companies are working on this hard.  I believe GM has said they have it covered until 2025, but that's only three years, so I'm a bit worried. 

It may turn out that with lithium, "We're gonna need a bigger boat!"
bdunham7:

--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 17, 2022, 03:54:14 am --- But that will improve.  Remember Moore's Law?  Still going strong after how many years?  Same thing with batteries. 

--- End quote ---

No, Moore's Law doesn't apply to everything, sometimes there are hard limits.  It doesn't even apply to semiconductors anymore as reality has been lagging the (thrice revised b/t/w) 'Law' of doubling density every two years.  Remember the Concorde SST?  Well, it turned out that supersonic travel continued to be prohibitively difficult and expensive, so we're pretty much stuck going about the same speed as the original 707.  There has been tremendous effort put into battery technology for decades what we've achieved is what we have.  Double the power density at half the cost?  That will take a miraculous breakthrough.  Will it happen?  IDK, but it ain't no sure thing. 
bdunham7:

--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 17, 2022, 04:03:38 am ---If you believe in basic math, you will be able to take the numbers for the last several years and see the >50% annual growth in sales.  Project that forward and you will see that in 10 years nearly all new cars sold will be BEVs.

--- End quote ---

Project it forward another 10 years and every person on the planet will have 42 BEVs.  Or something on that order.  Math is tricky like that.  Don't be an economist, use math wisely!
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