General > General Technical Chat
Confused about PHEV, Hybrids, etc...
<< < (43/93) > >>
gnuarm:

--- Quote from: bdunham7 on August 17, 2022, 04:04:31 am ---
--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 17, 2022, 03:54:14 am --- But that will improve.  Remember Moore's Law?  Still going strong after how many years?  Same thing with batteries. 

--- End quote ---

No, Moore's Law doesn't apply to everything, sometimes there are hard limits.  It doesn't even apply to semiconductors anymore as reality has been lagging the (thrice revised b/t/w) 'Law' of doubling density every two years.  Remember the Concorde SST?  Well, it turned out that supersonic travel continued to be prohibitively difficult and expensive, so we're pretty much stuck going about the same speed as the original 707.  There has been tremendous effort put into battery technology for decades what we've achieved is what we have.  Double the power density at half the cost?  That will take a miraculous breakthrough.  Will it happen?  IDK, but it ain't no sure thing.

--- End quote ---

Not sure why you are bringing the Concord into it.  That had totally different economics which mostly depended on the wealthy being willing to pay triple the price to cut their flight time in half.

The point of mentioning Moore's law is about the improvements in manufacturing continue to this day.  There's a similar rule that as you increase production a factor of 10, the costs are cut by a factor of 2.  We will be seeing a tenfold increase in BEV battery production over the next 10 years which will drop the costs dramatically. 

We've seen this with virtually everything in mass production, such as LCD TVs, solar cells and many other things.  There is zero reason why this won't apply to batteries.  The efforts we've made in battery technology have been trivial in comparison, because there is so much more money involved at this point.  $50 per phone vs. $10,000+ per car... no contest.  Money is being poured into battery research by companies who never had an interest or knowledge, like oil companies.  Yeah, I was told recently that the big oil companies are spending boatloads of money on battery research! 
gnuarm:

--- Quote from: bdunham7 on August 17, 2022, 04:09:20 am ---
--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 17, 2022, 04:03:38 am ---If you believe in basic math, you will be able to take the numbers for the last several years and see the >50% annual growth in sales.  Project that forward and you will see that in 10 years nearly all new cars sold will be BEVs.

--- End quote ---

Project it forward another 10 years and every person on the planet will have 42 BEVs.  Or something on that order.  Math is tricky like that.  Don't be an economist, use math wisely!

--- End quote ---

No, math is not tricky, just people.
EEVblog:

--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 17, 2022, 04:03:38 am ---The only possible monkey wrench I see is the possibility of raw materials, such as lithium, limiting production rates.
--- End quote ---

Bingo. Throw in home and grid storage demand and your supply problems get harder.
tom66:
The VW ID.3 comes with a 58kWh battery and outside of chip shortage times you could get one for 26,000 EUR.  It's nearly the same capacity battery that one of the variants of the Model S offered.

The Nissan Leaf had a 24kWh battery, smaller motor, worse build quality and cost more than 26,000 EUR new, 8 years ago. 

It's madness to say battery prices haven't fallen. 

That said, will they fall so far that a 10,000 EUR econobox with a 40kWh battery is practical?  Possibly not.  That segment of the market may just disappear.
EEVblog:

--- Quote from: tom66 on August 17, 2022, 07:32:44 am ---The VW ID.3 comes with a 58kWh battery and outside of chip shortage times you could get one for 26,000 EUR.  It's nearly the same capacity battery that one of the variants of the Model S offered.
The Nissan Leaf had a 24kWh battery, smaller motor, worse build quality and cost more than 26,000 EUR new, 8 years ago. 
It's madness to say battery prices haven't fallen. 
--- End quote ---

Don't forget the government subsidies.
Yes they have fallen, but not as dramatically as required to make EV's closer to parity with ICE cars. A new small ICE car in the Uk still costs half that.
And market forces are currently driving battery prices back up.
Navigation
Message Index
Next page
Previous page
There was an error while thanking
Thanking...

Go to full version
Powered by SMFPacks Advanced Attachments Uploader Mod