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Confused about PHEV, Hybrids, etc...

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Cerebus:

--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 03:21:59 pm ---
--- Quote ---Even L2 charging isn't free or anywhere near free once you price in the wiring to it.  Streetside charging, even if only outlets, is a pretty big capital outlay.  I'm not sure there is enough copper available.
--- End quote ---

LOL.  Ok, if you say so.


--- End quote ---

You clearly have no idea about infrastructure costs. We're talking about places where you need to dig to install new electricity connections, none of that third world pig on a pole stuff.

The average cost of a new supply connection from existing street cables to a dwelling in the UK is £1790, most of that cost is digging in metalled roads and making good. There are 52 roadside parking spaces down my typical residential London street. That's a minimum of 26 type 2 charging points, at a minimum of £1000 a pop for the supply, £1000 a pop for a twin socket charging pillar, so ~£50,000 plus for one street.

If you include all the streets that London Licensed Taxi drivers are required to learn there are over 30,000. That's only the streets within six miles of Charing Cross. London is about 30 miles across, give or take. Which leads to a crude estimate of 180,000 streets. There's 9200 miles of roads in London (not an estimate). So that's on the order of £9 billion, just for London. Over £1000 for each man, woman and child that lives in London. The current property taxes for London total about £5 billion a year.

2N3055:

--- Quote from: Monkeh on August 18, 2022, 07:29:37 pm ---
--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 02:55:20 pm ---I'm just saying the present lack of overnight charging is not the huge, impenetrable roadblock that people try to make it out to be.

--- End quote ---

It is for those who do not have it. The difference between 'now' and 'some indeterminate time in the future with no concrete plans' seems lost on you.


--- End quote ---
Exactly. It is primary and absolutely "impenetrable" block for me to buy BEV. I cannot have it fuelled (charged) so it will not drive me anywhere. And that holds true for ALL the people (several hundreds of them) living on my street. What am I saying, all of the 5000-10000 people living in this part of town have no chargers available. Only people I know here that have BEVs have private houses with garages ad driveways where they can charge at home, and not a single one have BEV as only vehicle.

gnuarm:

--- Quote from: 2N3055 on August 18, 2022, 04:50:07 pm ---
--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 03:58:26 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on August 18, 2022, 03:00:23 pm ---Indeed.  Some 50% of UK households do in fact have driveways so those are the 'easy pickings' for installing charging.

The other half will need a solution, and it's definitely harder to solve.   But in the meantime, what's holding that the first half back?  How can we make EVs more attractive for those guys?

--- End quote ---

By having them for sale, to start.  I don't know about the UK, but it's hard to buy a BEV in the US because they've all been sold.  Some models have a 1 year waiting list.  Automakers are ramping up literally as fast as they can. 

Hmmm... I wonder if BEVs will ever catch on?

--- End quote ---

Less than 1% of the 250 million cars, SUVs and light-duty trucks on the road in the United States are electric.
Percentage of BEV in sales of new cars is irrelevant.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-ELECTRIC/USA/mopanyqxwva/

World figures are somewhere better, somewhere worse..

It is easy to talk about infrastructure when 1% of cars on road are BEV.
It is easy to say they will scale electricity production, high voltage distribution networks, millions of local transformer stations, hundreds of millions of chargers etc..etc... But making current BEV electricity infrastructure 50-100x larger than now is colossal undertaking...
Making 50-100x more batteries for BEV than now???

--- End quote ---

Wow!  I don't know if you are uninformed or choosing to be in denial.  How much do you believe electrical production capacity will need to be increased?  Not talking about production, but capacity.  How many electrical generating plants will be built to supply BEVs by 2040 when nearly all cars on the road are BEVs?

Yes, we will need to build an EVSE for every BEV sold.  Let's see...  comparing the issue of building a quarter billion BEVs, vs building a quarter billion EVSE...  Yeah, I guess the EVSE are going to be the road block.  Clearly impossible. 

I mean, wow!  There's no way we could go from none to everyone having one of something in 30 years!  Wait, what am I typing this on? 

2N3055:

--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 07:41:46 pm ---
--- Quote from: 2N3055 on August 18, 2022, 04:50:07 pm ---
--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 03:58:26 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on August 18, 2022, 03:00:23 pm ---Indeed.  Some 50% of UK households do in fact have driveways so those are the 'easy pickings' for installing charging.

The other half will need a solution, and it's definitely harder to solve.   But in the meantime, what's holding that the first half back?  How can we make EVs more attractive for those guys?

--- End quote ---

By having them for sale, to start.  I don't know about the UK, but it's hard to buy a BEV in the US because they've all been sold.  Some models have a 1 year waiting list.  Automakers are ramping up literally as fast as they can. 

Hmmm... I wonder if BEVs will ever catch on?

--- End quote ---

Less than 1% of the 250 million cars, SUVs and light-duty trucks on the road in the United States are electric.
Percentage of BEV in sales of new cars is irrelevant.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-ELECTRIC/USA/mopanyqxwva/

World figures are somewhere better, somewhere worse..

It is easy to talk about infrastructure when 1% of cars on road are BEV.
It is easy to say they will scale electricity production, high voltage distribution networks, millions of local transformer stations, hundreds of millions of chargers etc..etc... But making current BEV electricity infrastructure 50-100x larger than now is colossal undertaking...
Making 50-100x more batteries for BEV than now???

--- End quote ---

Wow!  I don't know if you are uninformed or choosing to be in denial.  How much do you believe electrical production capacity will need to be increased?  Not talking about production, but capacity.  How many electrical generating plants will be built to supply BEVs by 2040 when nearly all cars on the road are BEVs?

Yes, we will need to build an EVSE for every BEV sold.  Let's see...  comparing the issue of building a quarter billion BEVs, vs building a quarter billion EVSE...  Yeah, I guess the EVSE are going to be the road block.  Clearly impossible. 

I mean, wow!  There's no way we could go from none to everyone having one of something in 30 years!  Wait, what am I typing this on?

--- End quote ---

Oh I see, so it is equal challenge to providing every household with a stationary 3kg box costing 500USD that needs 50W of power from standard (already there) outlet to function. You literally could not have found worse comparison.
Yes, I'm in denial and uninformed..

Please read the article..

Miyuki:

--- Quote from: tom66 on August 18, 2022, 05:21:12 pm ---No one says 100% BEV by tomorrow.  It will transition over the next 15-20 years.  There will still be ICE on the road in 2040.

The power generation argument is idiotic.  VW e-Golf is 4 miles per kWh... average let's say of 12,000 miles per year... So we need an extra 3,000kWh per car.

UK has 30 million cars - so extra generation of 90TWh.  Country generated 323TWh last year.

So yes... It is a lot... But also it is not that much - about 25% of total generation.  It seems completely feasible over the course of 20 years that generation could increase by 25%.  It will, after all, need to increase as gas heating is phased out.    The beauty of EVs is they can charge any time they are parked up, so they are great for soaking up excess renewables.

--- End quote ---
There will be some offset by this:
"it takes around 2 to 3kWh of electricity and 2 to 3kWh of heat energy (DOE figures) to produce a gallon of gas"
If the numbers are correct then it is a significant portion of the electricity needed for EVs when switched from ICEs


--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 03:55:25 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on August 18, 2022, 07:28:46 am ---
--- Quote from: gnuarm on August 18, 2022, 04:04:34 am ---Grid storage is not likely to be lithium based going forward.  Autos and other "mobile" devices have a specific need for high energy density, both by volume and by weight.  Grid storage does not.  Other battery technologies will dominate that market. 

Currently vanadium flow batteries are looking very good for stationary storage.  I just read something about a very large installation that is going in.  I believe it was in an article about how the technology was developed with US funds, and somehow ended up in a Chinese factory.  It seems that is being corrected with the license being pulled.

--- End quote ---

I think grid storage even being a battery is unlikely.

Convert it into hydrogen and store that at STP in natural gas caverns, then pull that hydrogen through a few "fool-cells" to make electricity.
--- End quote ---

Here's the big reason that is not a good idea, battery storage is between 80% and 90% efficient.  You can't get anywhere near that with hydrogen.  If your goal is to waste energy using expensive processes, then hydrogen is ideal. 



--- Quote ---Or, convert that hydrogen into natural gas using Fischer-Tropsch, or ammonia using the Haber process, and then combust as necessary (carbon-neutral fuel, assuming the natural gas leakage is kept low enough.)
--- End quote ---

Now you are doubling down on bad ideas.  You need to keep in mind the goal of using renewable energy.  It is to reduce and ultimately eliminate pollution, mostly the carbon emissions of fossil fuels.  The processes you list above start with fossil fuels as feedstocks.  You could substitute synthetic fuel or biomass derived fuels, but the cost would be quite prohibitive.



--- Quote ---Most countries that use natural gas have huge salt or geological caverns underground suitable for storing whole seasons worth of gas and it's typically at a low pressure.  Reuse what we have.
--- End quote ---

Where do you get the natural gas that doesn't make this a huge polluter? 



--- Quote ---Small battery-packs will handle the hour-by-hour load management but I doubt they will ever do much more than that - e.g. for the UK you'd need a 960GWh battery for 1 day's electricity (assuming demand stays as is) - that's roughly enough to build 13 million Tesla Model 3's - and you'll need more than one day worth of storage if the grid is fully renewable.
--- End quote ---

It would be a very serious drought that left wind farms and solar farms with zero output.  Still, they will be producing 13 million BEVs for the USA alone by 2029.  I don't see why this makes it unreasonable to build vanadium flow batteries.  Remember that the lithium ion battery is chosen for mobile applications because of the high specific energy (energy per weight).  Stationary applications don't care about that and will be built at a far lower cost per kWh than lithium ion cells.  Read up about it.  If you want to invest money in battery technology, vandium flow batteries are going to be a bigger wave than lithium ion because of the huge demand from buffering intermittent energy sources. 

--- End quote ---
Vanadium flow batteries are around for at least a decade yet is anywhere any working installation?
Hydrogen storage might a necessity in European conditions
Because you need to withstand a winter when you have minuscule solar power and wind can stop blowing for weeks (it happens quite commonly)
So to be able to have fossils as a backup for the worst case you need about 1 week of storage (for peak draw power as it happens in the same time)
And to be 100% renewable + nuclear it will have to be at least one whole month worth of energy
There is no way around it. Sahara solar farm is not a realistic approach as it is not a stable region. And you won't be able to transfer energy across Europe anyway.
So some huge chemical storage is a must.
In the US it can be significantly different.

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