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Confused about PHEV, Hybrids, etc...

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sokoloff:

--- Quote from: 2N3055 on August 18, 2022, 07:50:22 pm ---Oh I see, so it is equal challenge to providing every household with a stationary 3kg box costing 500USD that needs 50W of power from standard (already there) outlet to function. You literally could not have found worse comparison.
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I'm pretty sure the 50W figure is in error somehow, but I'm not sure what you're talking about to know what it should be. Surely not 50kW (not available from a standard outlet), but I also can't figure out what you could do with only 50W that's relevant to BEVs. Could you clarify?

gnuarm:

--- Quote from: nctnico on August 18, 2022, 05:00:08 pm ---No problem at all... in a dream fantasy  8)
The reality is that selling 50 BEVs instead of 25 is a 100% increase. And for sure there is a niche market segment waiting to be filled by BEVs. There are some rumours BEV sales are levelling off in the Netherlands because the market for BEVs starts to become saturated. We have to wait until the end of 2023 to draw some conclusions on that though.

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LOL!  I bought my BEV four years ago when the people who already had BEVs told me I wasn't an early adopter, they were the early adopters.  Now I am told I am part of a niche market.  Yeah, just like cell phones in the 90s, or the VCR and microwave in the 80s, or color TV in the 60s. 

If you just stop resisting for no reason, and pay attention to the advantages of BEVs, you will see they are a slam dunk.  But don't take my word for it.  Give it ten years and you will see how very few new ICE are still sold.  If for no other reason, that once the numbers drop off enough, models will be discontinued left and right.  Car makers simply can't make money on low volume sales of low end models. 

tom66:

--- Quote from: 2N3055 on August 18, 2022, 07:32:24 pm ---As for when people are charging, you can see the pattern by looking at parking patterns.  Pretty much, it will be happening overnight. All of them at the same time.
When they are home from the office, and all other activities. 7 kW is not enough power though, you need at least 16kW to charge it in reasonable time. Average of 50km is not important again, but a peak drive.. If I have to go Rijeka-Zagreb two days in a row (something very common here) I need to charge for 2 X 360-380 km in two days. And that has to be range, about 400km on a charge.

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There aren't many EVs (or any currently made, that I'm aware of) that go above 11kW, or 16A x 3ph, so I'm not sure 16kW is a near-term requirement.  Of course, it could change.

The capacity issue is mostly down to average usage though.

There is nothing in principle wrong with using the average journey distance to calculate grid loading - so if the average daily usage is 20 miles then a user will need 5kWh per night in charging.  That is 7kW for less than an hour, or 3.6kW for just under two.  The grid already handles - with some margin for capacity - peak times when cookers are switched on, or morning time if you have electric showers (9kW+ per home) and similar. 

The point of using the average is of course there will be cases where you need 7kW x 8 hours twice in a row - but it's unlikely everyone on the street will need it.  And most homes in Europe have at least 40A single phase service so can support 16-24A EV charging.  Many homes in Europe have 3ph in which case EV charging is even better because it sits equally across all three phases, even at lower powers.  No diversity or phase-balance calculations to make.

The biggest issues are not on the cables to each home but at the distribution network between those - it's common that there might only be a 300A x 3ph  cable feeding a whole street.  This may need to be replaced, depending on the load, but that can be monitored and upgraded as needed.  At the low-voltage to medium-voltage transformer, it's possible there will need to be larger transformers fitted, or upgrades to the 11kV (or other AC voltage) lines - that could get expensive.  But I'm not sure I'd be that worried by space for a bigger transformer.  Transformer design has only improved since some of those have been installed.  A 3MVA transformer fits in a 2m x 2m box, and that's enough to support an Ionity fast charging station.

For what it's worth I know two people who work in the distribution network here - National Grid plc - and they both tell me they are very on board with EVs.  They are giving their employees who have a driveway a company electric van, and are converting the fleet to EVs.  See, the distributor gets paid the more kWh's flow, so it really is in their interest to make sure they can allow it.  Their biggest short-term concern, for the UK, is building more HV transmission lines to allow the renewable power in Scotland to make it to the rest of the UK, as at present there are only two 400kV (~10GW each) links connecting the two halves. 

gnuarm:

--- Quote from: nctnico on August 18, 2022, 05:24:36 pm ---I agree with the 25% number. However what worries me is whether electricity becomes a scarse commodity at some point. More scarse compared to keep using oil in very efficient hybrids. Switching to hybrids will already cause a huge decrease in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
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LOL!!!  Hybrids are still terrible compared to BEV when it comes to efficiency.  Hybrids only look good when compared to the worst possible alternative, ICE autos! 



--- Quote ---Also keep in mind that under current EU regulations each BEV sold in the EU is equal to a car that emits 90 to 95 grams (don't know the exact number currently in effect) of CO2 due to the fact that car manufacturers have to meet a CO2 emission goal for their cars on average. IOW: for each BEV sold, an ICE car which emits more CO2 is being sold.

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LOL!!!  You are really reaching!  I can't even respond to this with an answer that would not be insulting to your intelligence. 

Why not just say every BEV made kills a kitten? 

gnuarm:

--- Quote from: 2N3055 on August 18, 2022, 05:30:46 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on August 18, 2022, 05:21:12 pm ---No one says 100% BEV by tomorrow.  It will transition over the next 15-20 years.  There will still be ICE on the road in 2040.

The power generation argument is idiotic.  VW e-Golf is 4 miles per kWh... average let's say of 12,000 miles per year... So we need an extra 3,000kWh per car.

UK has 30 million cars - so extra generation of 90TWh.  Country generated 323TWh last year.

So yes... It is a lot... But also it is not that much - about 25% of total generation.  It seems completely feasible over the course of 20 years that generation could increase by 25%.  It will, after all, need to increase as gas heating is phased out.    The beauty of EVs is they can charge any time they are parked up, so they are great for soaking up excess renewables.

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You might want to ease up on calling things idiotic, while ignoring data you don't like...

Generation IS a problem. But not the biggest one. Grid needs to be taken to the streets. And grid is NOT specified by kWh, but by peak power... THAT is the problem.

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Ah ha!  You are so close to the truth, if it were a snake, it would have bit you!  YES!  What matters is PEAK power.  BEVs are mostly charged at night, at OFF-PEAK times.  So the 20-25% increase in electric generation will use idle generation capacity that otherwise is wasted capital... which still must be depreciated and shows up in the high per kWh rates at peak times! 

So charge BEVs at night (when no one has to sit around waiting...) and you also use fallow capital, decreasing the cost of electricity for EVERYONE! 

So BEVs will increase electric production by 20%.  Assume a high number of 5% of BEV charging will be done at peak time.  That increases peak demand by just 1%.  I expect BEV charging at peak time will be more like 1% (people on trips) which would be just 0.2% increase in production required. 

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