EEVblog Electronics Community Forum
General => General Technical Chat => Topic started by: SilverSolder on March 17, 2020, 07:19:35 pm
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How fast can the life sciences work?
March 16, 2020
SEATTLE (AP) — U.S. researchers gave the first shot to the first person in a test of an experimental coronavirus vaccine Monday -- leading off a worldwide hunt for protection even as the pandemic surges.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/national-news/2020/03/16/coronavirus-vaccine-test-opens-as-us-volunteer-gets-1st-shot (https://www.wgbh.org/news/national-news/2020/03/16/coronavirus-vaccine-test-opens-as-us-volunteer-gets-1st-shot)
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Chief scientist on Trump’s task force said it will take 12-18 months. My hope, they will find a way to cut corners, and maybe we will see “deployable” vaccine by fall. They are already doing that, by going straight to phase 1 clinical trials, bypassing animal testing.
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Frankly, 18 months is what pretty much all other medical specialists are estimating , not only that genius in us government.
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12 to 18 months is an incredibly fast time to market for anything medical in the US. Usually the time is measured in decades. As the previous poster pointed out, they're skipping animal testing and have started human testing. But it will take months to see which treatments are effective and which aren't. They hope to have those answers by about August or September. After that they think it will take 6 months to start manufacturing and probably another 6 months before they have enough doses to begin to inoculate large numbers of people.
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Also note that influenza vaccine is reformulated twice a year. So obviously flu vac does not go through the 12-18 month long clinical trials and production cycle. Otherwise it will become obsolete, due to flu mutation, before vaccine is released.
With economy at stake, bureaucrats may streamline their approval processes, and with government funding businesses may ramp up vaccine production capacity. Or maybe not...
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Is it worth getting a regular flu shot? - is it possible to get ill with both regular flu and Covid 19 at the same time?
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Is it worth getting a regular flu shot? - is it possible to get ill with both regular flu and Covid 19 at the same time?
Yes. Flu season is not over in the U.S., and tens of thousands die from it each year. If you are lucky enough you can get both at the same time.
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Chief scientist on Trump’s task force said it will take 12-18 months. My hope, they will find a way to cut corners, and maybe we will see “deployable” vaccine by fall. They are already doing that, by going straight to phase 1 clinical trials, bypassing animal testing.
So, not to be too picky, the test compound, mRNA-1273, has shown efficacy (or at least "promise") in animal models. What they might have skipped is the basic animal rule requiring toxicity testing, typically 28-day and GLP in at least two animal species.
The clinical trial is for healthy normal volunteers - a simple dose-effect - Phase 1 safety. The effort can progress to Phase 2 (testing in a few folks with Covid-19) if that goes well.
It is probably the case that the push will have many candidates (already) in testing in different countries....and like you, I hope something is a hit, and soon.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins)
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461?term=mrna-1273&draw=2&rank=1
(https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461?term=mrna-1273&draw=2&rank=1)
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
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Chief scientist on Trump’s task force said it will take 12-18 months. My hope, they will find a way to cut corners, and maybe we will see “deployable” vaccine by fall. They are already doing that, by going straight to phase 1 clinical trials, bypassing animal testing.
Umbrella corporation anyone? >:D
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
I agree. Are you in the US? Did you get the quadrivalent or old fart booster (high dose trivalent) or ?
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
I agree. Are you in the US? Did you get the quadrivalent or old fart booster (high dose trivalent) or ?
Yes, east coast. - LOL I didn't know there were different ones. This is the first one I've had in a decade, so it is probably not a booster...
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
I agree. Are you in the US? Did you get the quadrivalent or old fart booster (high dose trivalent) or ?
Yes, east coast. - LOL I didn't know there were different ones. This is the first one I've had in a decade, so it is probably not a booster...
Yeah, there are. The quadrivalent protects against four strains. The high dose (old fart booster) is trivalent (protecting against three strains) but 4X the antigen as compared to normal trivalent. It was offered this season for old farts with the idea that their immune systems benefist from the increase and there is some evidence to suggest that see https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm)
I asked because I had to make a case for the quadrivalent and they gave me what I asked for (although I had to put in writing that I specifically requested it). I just reasoned that I would rather be protected against for strains and, I would like to believe, that my immune system is fine. My guess is that the quadrivalent 4X will be available next season.
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
I agree. Are you in the US? Did you get the quadrivalent or old fart booster (high dose trivalent) or ?
Yes, east coast. - LOL I didn't know there were different ones. This is the first one I've had in a decade, so it is probably not a booster...
Yeah, there are. The quadrivalent protects against four strains. The high dose (old fart booster) is trivalent (protecting against three strains) but 4X the antigen as compared to normal trivalent. It was offered this season for old farts with the idea that their immune systems benefist from the increase and there is some evidence to suggest that see https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm)
I asked because I had to make a case for the quadrivalent and they gave me what I asked for (although I had to put in writing that I specifically requested it). I just reasoned that I would rather be protected against for strains and, I would like to believe, that my immune system is fine. My guess is that the quadrivalent 4X will be available next season.
Interesting, so at what age to they switch from prescribing one over the other? - or do they take general health levels into account?
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
I agree. Are you in the US? Did you get the quadrivalent or old fart booster (high dose trivalent) or ?
Yes, east coast. - LOL I didn't know there were different ones. This is the first one I've had in a decade, so it is probably not a booster...
Yeah, there are. The quadrivalent protects against four strains. The high dose (old fart booster) is trivalent (protecting against three strains) but 4X the antigen as compared to normal trivalent. It was offered this season for old farts with the idea that their immune systems benefist from the increase and there is some evidence to suggest that see https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm)
I asked because I had to make a case for the quadrivalent and they gave me what I asked for (although I had to put in writing that I specifically requested it). I just reasoned that I would rather be protected against for strains and, I would like to believe, that my immune system is fine. My guess is that the quadrivalent 4X will be available next season.
Interesting, so at what age to they switch from prescribing one over the other? - or do they take general health levels into account?
I believe that they use the universal 65 metric as constituting old fart class :).
That you are asking suggests that they probably gave you trivalent 1X and that you were not eligible for 4 X....but I could be wrong.
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I went and got a flu shot today. Apparently these things are about 50% effective in preventing getting the type(s) of flu they target. Given that we really, really don't want to have both Covid-19 and regular flu at the same time, this seems like a sensible risk reduction strategy.
I agree. Are you in the US? Did you get the quadrivalent or old fart booster (high dose trivalent) or ?
Yes, east coast. - LOL I didn't know there were different ones. This is the first one I've had in a decade, so it is probably not a booster...
Yeah, there are. The quadrivalent protects against four strains. The high dose (old fart booster) is trivalent (protecting against three strains) but 4X the antigen as compared to normal trivalent. It was offered this season for old farts with the idea that their immune systems benefist from the increase and there is some evidence to suggest that see https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm)
I asked because I had to make a case for the quadrivalent and they gave me what I asked for (although I had to put in writing that I specifically requested it). I just reasoned that I would rather be protected against for strains and, I would like to believe, that my immune system is fine. My guess is that the quadrivalent 4X will be available next season.
Interesting, so at what age to they switch from prescribing one over the other? - or do they take general health levels into account?
I believe that they use the universal 65 metric as constituting old fart class :).
That you are asking suggests that they probably gave you trivalent 1X and that you were not eligible for 4 X....but I could be wrong.
It wasn't even discussed, it was just called a "flu shot"... I'm still (rapidly) approaching 60 so perhaps they defaulted to 4x.
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China's new crown vaccine has been injected into the human body for the first batch of experiments 108 volunteers
https://tech.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-03-21/doc-iimxyqwa2231078.shtml
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I calculated the number of known infections on March 20 as a percentage of the country's population. Listed below, down to 0.001%
PctInfected Country
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0.449753% San Marino
0.125156% Vatican City
0.112282% Iceland
0.100267% Dominican Republic
0.096721% Andorra
0.095486% Liechtenstein
0.078841% Luxembourg
0.078052% Italy
0.065405% Switzerland
0.052921% Spain
0.036888% Norway
0.030014% Austria
0.028721% Monaco
0.024426% Belgium
0.023870% Germany
0.023583% Iran
0.023168% Denmark
0.021304% Estonia
0.019309% Bahrain
0.019006% France
0.017631% Brunei
0.017212% Netherlands
0.017108% Qatar
0.016993% South Korea
0.016284% Slovenia
0.015861% Sweden
0.013878% Ireland
0.012967% Malta
0.009925% Portugal
0.008563% Cyprus
0.008453% Czech Rep
0.008141% Finland
0.008121% Guam
0.007684% Israel
0.007170% Seychelles
0.006750% Singapore
0.006503% Latvia
0.006040% UK
0.006001% US
0.005797% China
0.005410% Armenia
0.004741% Panama
0.004616% Greece
0.004163% Australia
0.004121% Croatia
0.003659% North Macedonia
0.003615% Malaysia
0.003597% Kuwait
0.003566% Greenland
0.003469% Maldives
0.003126% Uruguay
0.002863% Canada
0.002726% Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.002593% Lebanon
0.002511% Slovakia
0.002470% Lithuania
0.002461% Moldova
0.002445% Albania
0.002441% Ecuador
0.002271% Chile
0.002250% Montenegro
0.002234% Costa Rica
0.002140% Serbia
0.002090% Barbados
0.002029% Bulgaria
0.001916% Guyana
0.001587% Romania
0.001416% United Arab Emirates
0.001262% Georgia
0.001144% Poland
0.001119% St Lucia
0.001115% Oman
0.001106% Mauritius
0.001054% Hungary
0.001046% New Zealand
0.001038% The Bahamas
0.001037% Antigua and Barbuda
0.001005% Saudi Arabia
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The Iceland figure looks odd - as you don't expect a whole lot of traveling to and from there - although probably just explained by the fact this is a very small population (~360k), so obviously any case will contribute a lot more to the percentage.
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The Iceland figure looks odd - as you don't expect a whole lot of traveling to and from there - although probably just explained by the fact this is a very small population (~360k), so obviously any case will contribute a lot more to the percentage.
Iceland has a lot of tourism, and relatively few tourist destinations... and a lot of people working in the industry. People (including me!) use Iceland as a stop-over on the way between America and Europe. I can totally see how this could happen.
The other factor is - how much is each country actually testing? They will "look good" if they don't test as much as the best.