Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 66969 times)

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Offline purfield

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #100 on: March 06, 2020, 05:32:11 am »
At least with influenza we have vaccines that are sometimes effective.  No such thing with COVID19 for a while.  We are all susceptible. 
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #101 on: March 06, 2020, 05:35:38 am »
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

You are so sure your place this time around will not go to a lock down like those cities in China.
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Online blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #102 on: March 06, 2020, 05:44:01 am »
You are so sure your place this time around will not go to a lock down like those cities in China.

The only currently locked down city in China, Wuhan, still has a working market system.
You can't go out doesn't mean you can't buy.
Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.

Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.
I've been spending 23+ hours in my room per day for the past 3 weeks, and so far I haven't see much of an inconvenience.
 
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Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #103 on: March 06, 2020, 06:24:06 am »
(I've been isolating myself this week also, in case I happened to be a carrier.  I might have a slight cold, and no need to mingle with people, so it has been quite easy.)
 

Offline carloserodriguez

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #104 on: March 06, 2020, 06:39:00 am »
You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  No let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city o about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we don take aggressive measures to stop infection, is twice as many will get some form of Corv19. The use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu on2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. One don't take a break e measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters
The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.
Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.
So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1%.  Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population.
That is30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I vection rate to levels of the Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.
 

Offline carloserodriguez

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #105 on: March 06, 2020, 06:42:56 am »
How could 3,000,000 people in the USA could die.

You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of the infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER MAKE THE TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  Now let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city of about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we dont take aggressive measures to stop infection, is just twice as many will get some form of Corv19. Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. If we don't take agresive measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters.

The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.

Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.

So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1% of the US with large numbers vaccinated.
Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population. It is realistic since we have no immunity.
That comes to 30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is likely way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I infection rate to levels below the seasonal  Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 07:02:05 am by carloserodriguez »
 
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Offline TerminalJack505

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #106 on: March 06, 2020, 07:09:34 am »
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I live in a part of the US that is prone to both tornadoes and ice storms and I once lost my power for two weeks due to an ice storm.  At the time I was lucky enough to have a bunch of freeze dried backpacking food as well as a backpacking stove and fuel.

I was basically an "accidental prepper."

Obviously, I would have survived without the emergency food but it proved to be pretty convenient.  I was able to stay at home and eat nice warm meals.  I didn't have to go out and fight the crowds.  I remember friends telling me about the madness at the stores.  One friend said he had to drive into the next state (about 70 miles away) just to buy a power generator.

Since then I have always had extra freeze dried food "just in case."

The food from Mountain House (the company that produces the best freeze dried food, in my opinion) has a shelf-life of 30 years so you can pretty much just put it in a cabinet and forget it.  Out of curiosity, I just checked their website and they are completely out of stock of everything they sell.
 

Online Marco

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #107 on: March 06, 2020, 07:23:46 am »
No such thing with COVID19 for a while.

I wonder ... if lets say low dose interferon and ribavirin worked as a prophylactic would we even be told? It's expensive and you can't just scale production on a dime.
 

Online blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #108 on: March 06, 2020, 07:49:10 am »
I wonder ... if lets say low dose interferon and ribavirin worked as a prophylactic would we even be told? It's expensive and you can't just scale production on a dime.

Expensive due to profit requirement of drug manufacturers. In China those are cheap as dirt.
Interferon was expensive due to its nature. It can be hardly synthesized and requires bio engineered microbes to make.
As with anything, once the Chinese learnt the secret, it gets cheaper. It's all about the DNA in the microbe, and DNA sequencing is very common in China to reverse engineer Western bio-engineered medicines.
Interferon in China is super cheap, cheap enough to be used as (potentially) placebos in gel form to treat skin viral infections like warts, while the use was never heard outside China except for genital warts.
Last time I got some flat warts doctors proscribed me interferon alpha-2-b for $2 per 3mL tube.
As for ribaviron, it is just a simple small molecule that can be chemically synthesized, nothing special.
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #109 on: March 06, 2020, 08:15:24 am »
Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.

Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.
Why i should be doing this when i simply can have supplies in my closet. Outside food may become expensive, delivery drivers may charge a premium, and the delivered food may be contaminated. This is literally inviting the virus straight into your house.
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Offline GlennSprigg

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #110 on: March 06, 2020, 11:30:18 am »
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???

 :palm:

(Sorry about the delay, from 26th Feb...)
I don't understand the 'FacePalm' ?   Last week, on Australian TV News, (can't remember who),
it was stated that the Chinese Govt was disappointed with Australia limiting certain flights or
travel from certain regions. I found that irresponsible & offensive. Next few months will tell...  >:(
 

Online blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #111 on: March 06, 2020, 11:50:41 am »
Chinese Govt was disappointed with Australia limiting certain flights or travel from certain regions.

How does this relate to China wants Australia to be infected?
It means China wants its people not to be discriminated, at the cost of Australia's public health.
It's a dick move, but infecting Australia was never an intent.
It would be stupid to want one's largest raw material source and finished product market to collapse, isn't it.

//Edit: censored some part of the post in order not to trigger another war.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 03:41:20 pm by blueskull »
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #112 on: March 06, 2020, 01:20:45 pm »
Folding@Home has started a project to fight the virus.
https://foldingathome.org/2020/02/27/foldinghome-takes-up-the-fight-against-covid-19-2019-ncov/
Also keep in mind that you can still mine Curecoin and Foldingcoin, without reducing your contribution to science.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #113 on: March 06, 2020, 01:24:51 pm »
.... Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%. ...

At least one problem there with your sums, the case fatality rate for regular seasonal flu is about 0.1%, not the 2% you quoted.
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #114 on: March 06, 2020, 03:08:55 pm »
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.

944616-0 944620-1

Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 
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Online Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #115 on: March 06, 2020, 03:30:56 pm »
Don't worry, done and dealt with.

Stocking up on food is not a bad idea. No need to go prepper mad with food for 2 years but a months supply of tins is not a bad call, just saw an interview with an "expert" who said that to have some food would be a good idea. My brexit buffer is now my covid 19 buffer.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #116 on: March 06, 2020, 03:37:43 pm »
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8

Well yes, thanks for correcting the terms. "Death rate" and "mortality rate", which we hear about a lot in the media, are improper terms here.
What was meant was the case-fatality ratio instead, which so far looks much higher for this virus than for regular "flu", but as I said, even that can't be completely figured out yet as (fortunately) the number of detected infected people is still very low compared to the figures we have for regular flu.

 

Offline imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #117 on: March 06, 2020, 05:18:13 pm »
 

Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #118 on: March 06, 2020, 05:36:19 pm »
How to interpret this? True/False?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

As dumb conspiracy theory stuff.

Wuhan is a big city, it has the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As a parallel, London (another high population city) has the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine, which has the high biosecurity labs necessary for investigating diseases, as it does. (It also has Northwich Park MRC, several other governmental/quasi-governmental medical research establishments that handle viruses, lord knows how many Hospital pathology labs, and about a dozen Universities conducting microbiological research and god knows how many private research institutes). If there is an outbreak of disease in London, do we attribute it to shadowy bio-weapons research? No, we do not.

You could pick any major city in any major country in the world and come up with a similar candidate list of labs conducting virology research or handling live virus samples. Shadowy government bio-weapons labs tend to be situated in the arse end of nowhere, for obvious reasons.
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Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #119 on: March 06, 2020, 05:38:10 pm »
Can we have a Raspberry Pi version of this?
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Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #120 on: March 06, 2020, 07:34:00 pm »
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8

Yes, I agree, "You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the 'case-fatality ratio' until an epidemic is over." You do not, however, wait "until the epidemic is over" to make decisions. If they are to be evidenced-based decisions, then they need to be based on the evidence that is available. I am not saying that you disagree with that or that you have said otherwise, I am emphasizing the point.

Take, for example, the graphs below (I have not attempted to validate the data):

from:https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-by-age/ Source:CDCC Most recent data available as of March 5, 2020Infographic by Sara Chodosh

The need for a presumptive overall mortality rate is less compelling than looking at where the deaths have occurred, "so far" - at least for the over 50 crowd.

If you are trying to decide whether to close schools, for example, do you decide based on the observed overall mortality rate so far? I might add that the under 50 crowd is less likely to have the "responsibility" of deciding whether to close a school or not.

I like that you brought up the terms and this is not a counter-post to what you have said, it it just expressing a very difficult and practical matter. I am glad that I do not have to make such decisions, but I want to see them as evidenced-based.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 04:34:31 pm by DrG »
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Offline ebastler

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #121 on: March 06, 2020, 07:51:25 pm »
I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.

Three users, actually.
 

Online Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #122 on: March 06, 2020, 07:56:44 pm »
the two spare chicks got banned. He's Angrybird, anything else get's banned.
 
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Online hamster_nz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #123 on: March 06, 2020, 11:28:56 pm »
Something I found interesting.

COVID-19 cases per million people (Populations from Google, cases from WHO Situation report 46):

Hubei Provence: 1145.6 (67592/59M)

South Korea: 123.2 (6284/51M)

Italy 64.3  (3858/60M)

All of China: 56.5 (80711/1428M)

Iran: 43.3 (3513/86M)

USA: 0.5  (148/330M)

One perspective that seems to be completely lacking is that you can't outrun exponential growth.

If nothing is done differently, this time next week there will be more cases outside China than inside - if anything the pace of growth seems to have picked up in the last week or so.

China started the Wuhan lockdown at about 2,300 cases (on 23 Jan), and it seems to have settled down at 80k cases...



« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 11:31:54 pm by hamster_nz »
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Offline DrG

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« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 04:30:45 pm by DrG »
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