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| Covid 19 virus |
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| Bud:
Wow! And I thought Canadian Health Authority representative was an idiot when he said "when you see Chinese people on the strret shake their hand" https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist |
| drussell:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 05:39:19 pm ---drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data? --- End quote --- I have been following all the raw data since December and doing my own analysis, yes. --- Quote ---I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world?? --- End quote --- I mean worst shape as far as preparedness. It appears that the US is only just beginning to see the tip of the infection iceberg and seems totally ill-equipped to handle it. There seems to be a lack of federal leadership, leaving more local officials without proper support and guidance. The medical system does not appear poised to be able to handle the influx that appears to be coming, with no real plans on how to try to improve the situation. There are millions and millions of people who cannot even seek medical care, even if they're actually carrying the virus. I would love to be wrong, but I fear the US will be the hardest hit within a few weeks. --- Quote ---As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201. Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot. --- End quote --- We do have a clue, though. We can make educated suppositions based on the available evidence from previous cases and responses worldwide. Wait about two weeks (the median number of days from symptoms to death is about 14 days) and compare the number of deaths once more of the infected Americans start to die. Excerpt from another forum post: --- Quote ---The data from the following preliminary studies agrees with my own empirical evidence and analysis graphs (the trends in recovered and deaths track closely) which you probably would dismiss anyway since I'm just some guy on the internet. :) Instead, here are some data points from actual published papers by real doctors and scientists.... The Wang et al study (an admittedly small study of only 138 cases) suggests: The median durations from first symptoms to dyspnea, hospital admission, and ARDS were 5 days (interquartile range 1-10), 7 days (IQR, 4-8), and 8 days (IQR, 6-12), respectively The median time from onset of symptoms to ICU admission (not just hospital admission) is 10 days (IQR 6-12) For those discharged from hospital, the hospital stay was a median of 10 days with an IQR of 7-14 (vs 12 days median 12.8 mean duration in the Guan study of 1099 cases, so reasonably close agreement on hospital stay to discharge) The earlier CNHC study (preliminary data from 17 early cases) suggests that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days The Lan study where they were looking to see how long patients still tested positive after meeting the criteria for hospital release or lifting of quarantine, the patients were initially considered "recovered" after 12-32 days, though it does not specify a median or IQR. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452 --- End quote --- |
| engrguy42:
drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be". And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe. As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200. The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation. |
| iMo:
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 05:49:54 pm --- --- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 22, 2020, 05:06:41 pm ---If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)? --- End quote --- Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever. --- End quote --- If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics.. For example China 40y back - even the number of infected and fatalities would had been 100x higher than today nobody would know outside China.. Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe", and the Eastern Bloc - while hiding their real numbers as their "state secrecy" - happily finger pointing the "low level of healthcare in the West". |
| drussell:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 06:07:26 pm ---drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be". --- End quote --- Obviously, only time will tell. --- Quote ---And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe. --- End quote --- Why do you assume I have an anti-US bias because I point out the fact that many people worldwide would like to see the US "knocked down a peg?" The same sentiment exists towards the UK from the EU over Brexit. Does that somehow make me anti-UK too? :-// (My point was that even some vehement US-hater, which I assure you I am NOT, would not wish this situation on anyone...) --- Quote ---As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200. --- End quote --- Actually, the US confirmed cases are close to 40,000 now, with almost 14,000 added so far today. --- Quote ---The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation. --- End quote --- I believe that based on the experience of other countries, we can predict that the measures you speak of are too lax and have been implemented too slowly in many areas. I hope I am wrong. You believe otherwise, and I hope you are right! Only time will tell. |
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