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Covid 19 virus
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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: imo on March 22, 2020, 04:06:14 pm ---It looks like the "political correctness" is the major killer in this pandemic..

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truth is the first victim in this pandemic
the proposal that guy refers to was to quarantine just Chinese children even those who had not been in China since years
pure madness that would have not served any real purpose
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 04:30:51 pm ---Years ago I had a buddy who was a PSYCH professor at a university. And he'd always tell me his little "gems of truth" about human behavior that were very well known in the world of psychology, but nobody really talked about because people might get offended.

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and he kept on believing that psychology was science  ;D
while in the last few years it has been changing and slowly becoming more and more empirically based, usually experiments suffer from  a poor choice of the sample, not so representative (usually just students) and not large enough

psychology is one of the disciplines more affected by the inconsistent results of replicated experiments
hamster_nz:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 06:07:26 pm ---drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".

And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.

As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.

The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.
 

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You predict like a politician - i.e. mostly useless.

My personal predictions, based on:

In Italy the trending is growth of 10x over 14 days, and appears to be stable at this rate - 17% per day. Measures take ~14 days to be effective (based on data from China - they started lockdown at 2k cases and finished at 80k.)

If the USA applies the same control as in place two weeks ago, expect 1.8M cases (33k * 1.33^14), with 61k deaths when those cases are resolved. There will still be a pandemic evolving.

If the USA on the whole act as Italy has, expect there to be ~300,000 cases in two week (33k *1.17^14), eventually leading to 10k deaths when those cases are resolved. There will still be a pandemic evolving.

If the USA goes "full lockdown" this very instant, expect cases to level off in six weeks at 1.3M cases, with 45k deaths when those are resolved

An unscientific confidence interval of +/-50% on those numbers, as exponential are very sensitive to assumptions.

The last scenario is the best case scenario that data supports at the moment, without skilled modeling from somebody who is not an amateur in this.
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: drussell on March 22, 2020, 05:38:42 pm ---Really, the saddest part for me was about 3 weeks ago when the spread started in Italy so forcefully, where I suddenly realized how trivial it would be for any major government or reasonably-well funded private entity to engineer and release a targeted virus to essentially wipe out some genetically related group.    :'(

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that would be quite hard if not impossible...
there is just too little genetic difference among various human groups and too much difference within a given group
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 05:39:19 pm ---drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data? I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??

As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.

Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.

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it looks like you have not realized yet how this works
absolute figures mean nothing
you have to look at the trend

you will see that next sunday when US may be even in worst shape than my forecast and even if you take strict quarantine measures now as the result will arrive after 1-2 weeks
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