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Covid 19 virus

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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: Bud on March 22, 2020, 05:50:44 pm ---Wow! And I thought Canadian Health Authority representative was an idiot when he said "when you see Chinese people on the strret  shake their hand"

https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist

--- End quote ---

the same boring lie

Nusa:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 10:01:47 pm ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 22, 2020, 09:54:52 pm ---We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.

--- End quote ---
If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.

On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.

--- End quote ---

That one's easy if you learned any history. The last year of World War 1. Millions of international troop movements in both directions both during and after the war was won. In the case of American troops, on crowded ships. Never mind that there were many people dying of a typhus epidemic, an encephalitis epidemic, famine, and weapons of war at the same time. It may not be true of modern military, but historically more troops died of disease than combat.

As for the Black Death, that's pretty well documented if you only bother to look.

not1xor1:

--- Quote from: imo on March 22, 2020, 07:44:44 pm ---No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.

--- End quote ---

I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria

nctnico:

--- Quote from: Nusa on March 22, 2020, 10:36:41 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 10:01:47 pm ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 22, 2020, 09:54:52 pm ---We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.

--- End quote ---
If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.

On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.

--- End quote ---

That one's easy if you learned any history. The last year of World War 1. Millions of international troop movements in both directions both during and after the war was won. In the case of American troops, on crowded ships. Never mind that there were many people dying of a typhus epidemic, an encephalitis epidemic, famine, and weapons of war at the same time. It may not be true of modern military, but historically more troops died of disease than combat.

As for the Black Death, that's pretty well documented if you only bother to look.

--- End quote ---
But in the end it all comes down to people moving and contacting eachother. That is the bottom line.

not1xor1:

--- Quote from: hamster_nz on March 22, 2020, 10:20:42 pm ---In Italy the trending is growth of 10x over 14 days, and appears to be stable at this rate - 17% per day. Measures take ~14 days to be effective (based on data from China - they started lockdown at 2k cases and finished at 80k.)

--- End quote ---

the new cases as percentage of previous total in the last 2 weeks:
24 11 23 21 17 20 17 13 13 13 15 15 14 10

jumps  mostly due to data from some regions lagging 3-4 times

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