General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 04, 2020, 05:08:46 pm ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm ---Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)
--- End quote ---
You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.
Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
* Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
* Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
* R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.
So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
* Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
* Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
* R0 - 1.4-3.8
--- End quote ---
Well yes, thanks for correcting the terms. "Death rate" and "mortality rate", which we hear about a lot in the media, are improper terms here.
What was meant was the case-fatality ratio instead, which so far looks much higher for this virus than for regular "flu", but as I said, even that can't be completely figured out yet as (fortunately) the number of detected infected people is still very low compared to the figures we have for regular flu.
iMo:
How to interpret this? True/False?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic
Cerebus:
--- Quote from: imo on March 06, 2020, 05:18:13 pm ---How to interpret this? True/False?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic
--- End quote ---
As dumb conspiracy theory stuff.
Wuhan is a big city, it has the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As a parallel, London (another high population city) has the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine, which has the high biosecurity labs necessary for investigating diseases, as it does. (It also has Northwich Park MRC, several other governmental/quasi-governmental medical research establishments that handle viruses, lord knows how many Hospital pathology labs, and about a dozen Universities conducting microbiological research and god knows how many private research institutes). If there is an outbreak of disease in London, do we attribute it to shadowy bio-weapons research? No, we do not.
You could pick any major city in any major country in the world and come up with a similar candidate list of labs conducting virology research or handling live virus samples. Shadowy government bio-weapons labs tend to be situated in the arse end of nowhere, for obvious reasons.
Bud:
Can we have a Raspberry Pi version of this?
DrG:
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 04, 2020, 05:08:46 pm ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm ---Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)
--- End quote ---
You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.
Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
* Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
* Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
* R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.
So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
* Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
* Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
* R0 - 1.4-3.8
--- End quote ---
Yes, I agree, "You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the 'case-fatality ratio' until an epidemic is over." You do not, however, wait "until the epidemic is over" to make decisions. If they are to be evidenced-based decisions, then they need to be based on the evidence that is available. I am not saying that you disagree with that or that you have said otherwise, I am emphasizing the point.
Take, for example, the graphs below (I have not attempted to validate the data):
from:https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-by-age/ Source:CDCC Most recent data available as of March 5, 2020Infographic by Sara Chodosh
The need for a presumptive overall mortality rate is less compelling than looking at where the deaths have occurred, "so far" - at least for the over 50 crowd.
If you are trying to decide whether to close schools, for example, do you decide based on the observed overall mortality rate so far? I might add that the under 50 crowd is less likely to have the "responsibility" of deciding whether to close a school or not.
I like that you brought up the terms and this is not a counter-post to what you have said, it it just expressing a very difficult and practical matter. I am glad that I do not have to make such decisions, but I want to see them as evidenced-based.
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